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Which Happens First in August - Obama Walks on Water or Bush Walks With Fire?

Voided

Although the market attempts to bring up the silliness of categorizing Obama as a Messiah, it's the market structure which is leading to the void. As myself and others have pointed out, we know Obama is going to take a shower so therefore the answer to the market is already available.

Background:

Background: Obama's adoring fans scream and feint at his presence while Chris Matthews feels a thrill going up his leg. Obama is a world-wide superstar chosen and sent to deliver us from the evil Bush.

So which will happen first in August? Obama walks on water or Bush walks with fire?

For settlement purposes:
WATER: water includes puddles, rain, lakes, rivers, oceans, pools or any other liquids just so long as Obama walks on or through it. Swimming counts as a YES, walking on wet surfaces (inside or outside) counts as well.

FIRE: fire includes candles, forest fires, fireworks or anything burning near Bush. For the safety of our President I won't require him to touch the fire but to only be near it.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Obama Walks on Water
25%
Bush Walks with Fire
25%
None of the Above During August
50%
Voided Sat 26th Jul 2008 8:45pm PST

Suspend date: Sun 31st Aug 2008 6am PST

Initial likelihoods: Obama Walks on Water: 25%, Bush Walks with Fire: 25%, None of the Above During August: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 25th Jul 2008 6:28pm PST by fingers_of_fury
Suspended Fri 25th Jul 2008 7:08pm PST by destry[Admin]: Flagged by super user: Question suspended.
Unsuspended Sat 26th Jul 2008 5:46am PST by tisha[Admin]: This is a kooky question, but I think the odds are ok once you read the background info
Suspended Sat 26th Jul 2008 11:21am PST by destry[Admin]: Flagged by super user: Question suspended. Market not newsworthy. Obama walking through a puddle or near one won't be breaking news. Bush having dinner with a candle on the table won't be newsworthy either. Determining when these events occur will make settlement difficult at best.
Voided Sat 26th Jul 2008 8:45pm PST by ryanj: Although the market attempts to bring up the silliness of categorizing Obama as a Messiah, it's the market structure which is leading to the void. As myself and others have pointed out, we know Obama is going to take a shower so therefore the answer to the market is already available.

Suspend date: Sun 31st Aug 2008 6am PST details

 

Predictions (13)

1 year ago
valornhonor predicted Bush Walks with Fire (H$50 at 23%)
1 year ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted Obama Walks on Water (H$300 at 28%)
1 year ago
lizzielizzie predicted Obama Walks on Water (H$20 at 26%)
1 year ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted Obama Walks on Water (H$20 at 25%)

Comments (18)

another FIRE example: Bush attends a Bar-B-Q... the coals of fire!
posted 1 year ago
  2 Erik
This doesn't sound right: "Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended
Reason: Flagged by super user: Question suspended."
Why is it suspended for a flag?
posted 1 year ago
Yeah, I agree. I thought it was an interesting question, and since they are not major events, it is possible that a major mainstream news source would not report this & that justifies the "None of the above during August" option...
posted 1 year ago
Thanks Tisha - unusual questions make this site fun :-)
posted 1 year ago
  6 ryanj
Reading the market I'm kind of confused. Whats to happen if in August we know that Obama was in area during a rain shower, would this then settle as yes?

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 1 year ago
Hey Ryanj... yeah - that's a good idea. I would prefer liberal settlement rules on this one so that there's at least a 50% chance that one of the first two options occur during August so that our wagers are predicting which first. Obama in an area where it's extremely likely he walked on water (including walking on a wet surface) or Bush walking with fire (including Bush visiting an area damaged by fire or in an area commonly known to burn candles)

What prompted my imagination on this one is Obama's superstar status and a question in the user comments section of one of the news articles, something to the effect of "...what will he do next, walk on water?" (not exact quote... I'm paraphrasing from memory)

Then there's also a great deal of satire on the net likening Obama to a messiah. For example: Is Barack Obama the Messiah? http://obamamessiah.blogspot.com/

So this is my feeble attempt at joining in on the fun of creating satire centered around the news.

I welcome any and all suggestions/comments from you and other users to nail down the settlement details so we know which news articles to watch for during August.

Thanks!
posted 1 year ago
  8 kruijs[Power User]
I think f_o_f and vh are one and the same.

:-P
posted 1 year ago
WOW! Thanks for the compliment kruijs!!!

I must confess though that I possess a great deal less valor and honor than valornhonor :-D
posted 1 year ago
@ kruijs & f_o_f

Alright, you're both crackin' me up now. A very large portion of any acumen I've demonstrated on this site has been gleaned from my observations and mimicking of all-stars like f_o_f, bayoubear, mork, sdchargers, kruijs and the other prolific all-stars. With a shout out to the admins that have properly kept me in line, as evidenced by my still too high ratio of voids, I’m working on it…
posted 1 year ago
True that, Destry... that's why "None of the Above During August" is the highest percentage as there may not be any news reported concerning Bush touring/surveying fire damage or attending Bar-B-Qs or Obama swimming or walking over wet surfaces.

If Obama takes Cameron's advice to spend some time at the beach, it would certainly be reported in the news where he vacations to: "You should be on the beach," Cameron told Obama. "You need a break. Well, you need to be able to keep your head together."
posted 1 year ago
  12 destry[Admin]
If Bush has dinner tonight and there are candles on table, and Obama has dinner at home and takes a shower, this quesiton would settle. I say we use the creativity of the people to create markets that will bring media attention to hubdub. This market is just an attempt to be cute or creative, not newsworthy.
posted 1 year ago
  13 dieseldog
@ryan...welcome back. i been keepin an eye on things while you was gone. had to set a few people straight who was talking trash about you :O) i bet tish is happy your back.
posted 1 year ago
  14 ryanj
Hey diesel,

Thanks for the help mate!
I want names! who dares talk trash about me? :-)

Good to be back. Tisha did a fine job covering me, in fact no "spitzers" occurred, but I'm sure she's glad to be done with the hell which is American politics :-)

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 1 year ago
I am disappointed this question was voided for that reason. Rational people will agree that if Obama takes a shower in the month of August, it is not likely to be reported in a major mainstream news source. (Chris Dodd even got in trouble for noticing that Obama was "clean"!)
posted 1 year ago
Barack Obama: The Child - The Messiah - The Obamessiah
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0drwfnGlF_E
posted 1 year ago
  17 Erik
Fingers>..........Oh my.....that was wonderful!!!!!
posted 1 year ago
Hilary Clinton said almost the same thing! LOL
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x4hsga_hillary-mocks-obama_news
posted 1 year ago

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