Who will be Obama's choice for VP?

I don't get why this wouldn't be allowed? There was no one contract being offered on possible Obama VP selection. Just a series of individual contracts. Creating one contract with all the leading contenders seems more exciting to follow and wager.

@baj - About 2 months ago we instituted stricter duplicate rules which means you couldn't have a multi-market like this with options that were already covered in individual markets (i.e. Will Obama choose Kaine, Will Obama choose Sebelius, etc). Then about 2 weeks ago, we relaxed those rules significantly but haven't figured out exactly how far to relax them. Its that struggle to find a middle ground: keep things fair but still fun -- that some users are reading as inconsistency. Anyway, that's why the market is in deliberation. Hopefully it will be reopened very soon. (nudges Ryan)

@jab - thanks. I prefer this multi-market option just because the individual markets were too yes or no in this situation where it is a field of likely candidates. And also, having the option of 'other' means the punter can gain on the real long shot on whom no market was created. I might add that had Obama announced say yesterday, if his decision had been Evan Bayh, there had been no individual contract on him. This is surprising so late in the game - he's the favorite on Intrade.

But, anyway, I think the multi-market option covers the likelihood that Obama might not select any of the alleged short list.

We are all awaiting this market being reopened. I believe the consensus is that this market fills a void in our vp coverage and is well written. (pushing ryan closer to ledge)

i like these multi choice questions so when either canidate floats-leaks a potentional vp you can watch the market go up and down.

I agree with Dieseldog...while there's definitely a place for yes/no questions, in many areas a multiple-choice format is more interesting...I'd rather watch a race with 5-10 horses than a match race between just 2.

Check this out:
www.ObamaBayh08.com

@timmstifter
link points to the DNC, and nothing on that site hints that a selection has been made.

This one exists as well.
http://www.obamakaine08.com/

Dan Quail is not on the list?

I've parsed through all the clues, and I think it's Biden.

Disclaimer -- I have a crapload of money on Biden on this queston.

I am wondering if it will be a complete surprise, like Keith Ellison, Cindy Sheehan, or Jack Murtha

"I am wondering if it will be a complete surprise, like Keith Ellison, Cindy Sheehan, or Jack Murtha" LOL! One can only hope :-) Bayh or Biden would be the intelligent choice, but we're dealing with "moonbat" liberals hijacking the Democratic Party.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=auTmNXiBqkjE&refer=home

wonder if this means no for Bayh

I'm thinking Biden. NY Times is saying that Obama had "all but decided" last week while on vacation, but that the potential nominee supposedly hadn't been told yet (as of late yesterday). Biden has been in the Republic of Georgia and wasn't scheduled to return home until yesterday. I know that there are cell phones and all, but it still seems to make the most sense as to why he hadn't spoken with the nominee yet. Especially given that the campaign is indicating an announcement will be made by midweek, you would think a conversation would be in order. Of course, they could just being blowing smoke up our you-know-whats to keep the media hype going.

supposely if your a "member" of his campain-website you get a email or text message b4 the annoucement is made. don't know what the time span will be between the text mess-email and the annoucement will be. i'm pretty sure from some of the comments they are a few ppl who like obama on HD. they should make a killing. lots of markets with low %'s to bet on.

Well I am signed up to get that message so I will make sure I try to suspend as many markets as possible once announcement is made. I will also make sure to back void all predictions made after announcment is made.

@ dieseldog -- I betcha Destry "has a little list" of all the related questions ...
There's also a (small) army of admins and super-users who can suspend questions ;-)

@destry..i'm tellin the RNC on you :)

@NW...i'm sure things will get handled as fair as possible. obama might hit "send" on the email, then make the annoucement 20 seconds later. i wasn't to concrened bout it..was being more ornery than raising a concern. now that destry is signed up to get the email-text message it should be settled pretty quick.

It would be a huge flood of e-mail and sms which will fall in the mail boxes and cell phones at irregular times. Just to be fair and safe, may be the announcement would be assumed to occur a couple of hours before destry gets the mail.

I really don't think the sms and emails will be sent out same time to users who sign up as it is released to press. I am sure press will have before. It will be breaking news everywhere...

@destry..the news i've seen said obama promised his members they would get the email-text before he annouced. i'm sure theres members of the press on the list as you are. i don't know how it will work..maybe you gotta volunteer to work for his campain..like getting tickets to watch his exception speech :) see what time you get your notice, and what time its "breaking news"..which will come first?

@pembeci...the time stamp on the e-mail will tell what time the e-mail was sent as well as what time it was received, so it should be pretty easy to set a fair suspend time based on it.
@dieseldog and destry...according to "campaign officials" the e-mail is supposedly going to be sent simultaneous to the media release. This makes sense to me. It still makes a nice token gesture to the supporters, but there's no reason to delay the media release because I'm sure every reporter even remotely covering politics is signed up to receive the e-mail, and will be breaking the story right away anyhow.
Either way, it will be all over the news within seconds of the announcement at best, so it shouldn't give anyone a HubDub advantage to receive the e-mail. Not that anyone would try...I'm sure the market just swings like that at the end because the really good predictors could predict that the market event was about to occur and waited until last minute. They just couldn't place the wager fast enough. Maybe they are slow typers. And, while we're on the subject, this e-mail/text message idea is just to thank the supporters...it isn't a senaky way to secure e-mail addresses and cell phone numbers for fundraising purposes. Sheesh, you people are so cynical. ;)

Is there a reason that Obama has payed close attention to Indiana if he chooses
Bayh there is a good chance indiana (Republican state) will go for Obama that
would be a huge upset. Also truth be told Bayh Was Clintons first choice for VP
so that would bring alot of her upset supporters to Obama

@destry...you get any false email-text mess? saw on the news serval people did.

wtf happened to this market??? Has there been an announcement I missed?

anyone else remember with fond memories when the "Who will be the next President" market moved like this? So much more fun than the DOW questions!

No announcement that I know of but someone is taking huge punts on other. Intrade is very volatile but Biden is still the 45% favorite there followed by Clark at 13% and then Bayh at 12%. No liquidity on Betfair.

yeah when I posted "Other" was at 85%, Biden was at 3% and everyone else was less than that.

@marck, with those prices I'd buy, buy and buy some more instead of wasting my time posting. I guess someone got very excited after Chad Edward's name was leaked being on the short list.

*Chet* Edwards

*** with those prices I'd buy, buy and buy some more instead of wasting my time posting. ***

I was too busy checking my email accounts and web sites for what I thought was surely an announcement.

Same thing here now, suddenly Bayh is up to %58 and I am busy checking my email accounts and web sites for what I thought is surely an announcement. I wish we can see that market graph for the last 48 hours only after the settlement.

And it is again Biden 54%.

No announcement, just wild speculation based on rumors about bumper stickers being printed..

76% Bayh 19% Biden now. I am feeling dizzy.

I'm all in for Bayh.

THIS MARKET WILL REMAIN OPEN UNTIL THE ANNOUNCEMENT IS MADE
I am keeping this one market open until the announcement. With activity and popularity I am going to let this run til it is official. We have enough eyes on site to suspend when it happens. If any super or admin sees word on this please check this market and suspend.
REPEAT - THIS MARKET WILL REMAIN OPEN UNTIL THE ANNOUNCEMENT IS MADE
All other markets will suspend as previously discussed.

HD'rs are betting heavy on biden. goodluck all.

Both the Associated Press and CNN report Senator Joe Biden has been selected as Obama's Vice President nominee.

<http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-joe-biden-vice-president-barack-obama,0,4044104.story>

Good job newswrangler suspending this market. This market and all others will be settled once the OFFICIAL announcement is made. Right now everyone is reporting that sources say, this will be official when text message is released by campaign.