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What will Apple's next major hardware release be?

Current forecast: New Macbook, Macbook Pro or Macbook Air (36% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is New Macbook, Macbook Pro or Macbook Air with a probability of 36% (unchanged in last 1 day)

This year has seen the release of the Macbook Air, iPhone 3G and Apple TV 'Take Two', and we're only half way through the year. Websites such as Apple Insider (http://www.appleinsider.com/) have reported that new Macbook's will be shipped before the end of the year, while a new range of iPod's would be released in September if Apple continued the trend of the last two years. There's lots of rumours about a secret product which could be a new version of the Newton; there's even been rumours of a touch screen Macbook. Or perhaps Apple are going into a new market altogether.

This question asks what the next major hardware release will be this year. Only design changes or new inventions count, not internal changes such as hard drive size.
 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

New iPod Shuffle or Nano
20%
New iPod Classic or Touch
5%
Whole new range of iPods
7%
New Mac or Mac Pro
10%
New Macbook, Macbook Pro or Macbook Air
36%
New iPhone
2%
Newton/Tablet
7%
New Mac Displays
2%
New Apple TV
2%
Something Else/No new releases before end of 2008
9%
Activity: H$11,711
Question suspends in 17 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by www.apple.com.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 6:59am PST (17 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: New iPod Shuffle or Nano: 10%, New iPod Classic or Touch: 10%, Whole new range of iPods: 9%, New Mac or Mac Pro: 10%, New Macbook, Macbook Pro or Macbook Air: 20%, New iPhone: 1%, Newton/Tablet: 20%, New Mac Displays: 5%, New Apple TV: 5%, Something Else/No new releases before end of 2008: 10%

Action history:

Created Tue 29th Jul 6:28am PDT by charlie_dowden
Clarified Tue 29th Jul 10:02am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: If Apple release two or more products at the same event we will settle this as the first product announced.
Clarified Tue 12th Aug 9:47am PDT by tomg[Admin]: Clarification from question creator on the point of whether this question settles for LED backlit display on MacBook:

"If it was a new Macbook and not just an upgrade to the current one then yes it would count."

Otherwise no.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by www.apple.com. ... read all

 

Predictions (97)

97 predictions

12 hours ago
emptywin predicted New Macbook, Macbook Pro or Macbook Air (H$100 at 36%)
1 day ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted New iPod Shuffle or Nano (H$300 at 8%)
2 days ago
timteego predicted New Macbook, Macbook Pro or Macbook Air (H$50 at 41%)
2 days ago
dongun predicted New Macbook, Macbook Pro or Macbook Air (H$100 at 40%)
3 days ago
pippi1500 predicted New Macbook, Macbook Pro or Macbook Air (H$50 at 40%)
more

Comments (11)

If Apple release two or more products at the same event we will settle this as the first product announced.
posted 4 weeks ago
  3 tomg[Admin]
Clarification from question creator on the point of whether this question settles for LED backlit display on MacBook:

"If it was a new Macbook and not just an upgrade to the current one then yes it would count."

Otherwise no.
posted 2 weeks ago
  4 rogerkni
Would it be possible to set up a separate question such as this:
"What will the product transition Apple announced in July turn out to be?"

That is what most of the buzz and speculation is about. But the current question doesn't give people a way to bet on it, because its winner will be the new product that is announced first at the next Mac conference. There might well be three major hardware releases announced, with the important one saved for last.
posted 1 week ago
@ rogerkni -- I would cheerlead for a separate question(s) to be created. I agree that the clarification that was made on how this would be settled diminishes the importance of the question, and makes it, in my view, a question more on predicting "stage presentation" than it does on "new product announcement".

Be sure to explain what you mean about "product transition", and consider multiple outcomes when creating your question ;-)
posted 1 week ago
  6 rogerkni
OK, here's my draft. But I'm not very knowledgeable on this topic, and therefore I urge others to suggest additions and other changes. (My bet will be on the first and third items below.) However, there is no need for me to define what this product transition will be, because Apple will make it clear what it was referring to when it unveils it. (If it doesn't, questioners at the conference will draw that info out of them.)

What will the "product transition" Apple announced in July turn out to be?

A specialized chip in one or more Macs that encodes & decodes video feeds. (One major Wall St. analyst has endorsed this theory. I'd give this a 8% chance as a start.)
A specialized chip in one or more Macs that performs some other function, such as encryption, malware protection, or software metering. (I wish these improvements were in the offing, but no one important has endorsed them. I'd give this a 3% chance.)
LEDs to provide backlighting in one or more Macs. (One major Wall St. analyst has endorsed this theory. I'd give this a 8% chance as a start.)
Bundled third-party software (e.g., virtualization software or Windows) in one or more Macs. (This is another wish of mine. Columnist Dvorak suggested a year ago that Windows and OS X were moving toward a merger, so it's not out of the question. I'd give this a 3% chance as a start.)
Something other than the above in one or more Macs. (20%)
Something other than the above for the iPod line. (20%, in line with bets on the existing question above.)
Something other than the above for the iPhone. (3%, in line with bets on the existing question above.)
Something not covered above. (35%)
posted 4 days ago
@ rogerkni -- how would your proposed question settle if there were multiple outcomes?
posted 4 days ago
  8 rogerkni
One of the advantages of my question is that a certain sort of multiple outcome is avoided: Apple was referring to only a single innovation when it referred to this product transition. We won't have to worry if multiple innovations are announced at their next conference, because only one of them--the one they link to their June announcement--will be "it."

As for the problem of an innovation that overlaps product lines, such as LEDs in the screens of both Macs and iPods, for instance, or something that I can't anticipate, that's unlikely to happen. If it does, I'd suggest splitting the winnings between bettors on both possibilities, or voiding the question. By its nature, this is a question that is virtually impossible to formulate in a watertight way ahead of time. But that shouldn't forestall the question, IMO.
posted 4 days ago
  9 rogerkni
PS: I'msuch a novice that I wouldn't be able to handle posting my question. I urge someone else to do so--after editing it to their taste.
posted 2 days ago
  10 rogerkni
News stories today claim the revelation will occur on Sept. 9. I hope someone who knows how to formulate questions will post a question addressing what the "product transition" to be announced then will be. (As opposed to the topic of this question.)
posted 13 hours ago
  11 rogerkni
PS: If a separate question is not formulated for the "product transition" feature, I foresee heated protests from posters here if the question here is settled on the basis of what new feature was first announced at the press conference. (Even though your clarification spelled that out.)
posted 12 hours ago

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