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What will be the first last name to be shared by three different U.S. Presidents?

Current forecast: Johnson (24% chance2%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Johnson with a probability of 24% (down 2% in last 1 day)

Five different last names have each been shared by TWO U.S. Presidents, but none have reached the THREE plateau yet.
 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Adams
14%
Bush
23%
Harrison
14%
Johnson
24%
Roosevelt
19%
Wallechinsky
1%
any other name
5%
Activity: H$519
Question suspends in 8 years
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Fri 20th Jan 2017 4:05am PST (8 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Adams: 15%, Bush: 24%, Harrison: 15%, Johnson: 20%, Roosevelt: 20%, Wallechinsky: 1%, any other name: 5%

Action history:

All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (6)

6 predictions

7 weeks ago
greenprincess predicted Johnson (H$50 at 25%)
10 weeks ago
anaverageamerican[Power User] predicted Bush (H$20 at 23%)
10 weeks ago
valornhonor[Power User] predicted Johnson (H$100 at 22%)
10 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Johnson (H$100 at 21%)

Comments (4)

This is what you call a llloonnnggg term market!
posted 10 weeks ago
Vote Johnson, my four sons will be eligible in 17, 19, 25 and 34 years!
posted 10 weeks ago
  3 gregmatta
I'll be dead. Who do I leave my $H to. or is it H$. Whatever.
posted 10 weeks ago
  4 randburg
While we are excited by long term questions, how about this one: what will be the first last name to be shared by two astronauts landing on Mars?

If you really have nothing better to do, that should keep someone busy for a while...And NO FAIR saying "Kennedy"...
posted 10 weeks ago

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