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Guest:Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
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What will be the first last name to be shared by three different U.S. Presidents?

Background: Five different last names have each been shared by TWO U.S. Presidents, but none have reached the THREE plateau yet.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Adams
14%
Bush
23%
Harrison
14%
Johnson
24%
Roosevelt
19%
Wallechinsky
1%
any other name
5%
Question suspends in 6 years

Suspend date: Fri 20th Jan 2017 4:05am PST (6 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Adams: 15%, Bush: 24%, Harrison: 15%, Johnson: 20%, Roosevelt: 20%, Wallechinsky: 1%, any other name: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 29th Jul 2008 1:48pm PST by professionaleccentric
Clarified Fri 1st Aug 2008 6:54am PST by destry[Admin]: This is truly a long term market. While participation will probably be non-existent I will allow to run. And as this market is an event based market as opposed to time frame market, the suspend date is fluid. It will keep getting pushed until the event occurs. Make sure to have your will's made ou, someone you love might inherit this one.

Suspend date: Fri 20th Jan 2017 4:05am PST (6 years to go) details

 

Predictions (7)

10 weeks ago
borntorefuse predicted Bush (H$25 at 23%)
1 year ago
greenprincess predicted Johnson (H$50 at 25%)
1 year ago
anaverageamerican predicted Bush (H$20 at 23%)
1 year ago
valornhonor predicted Johnson (H$100 at 22%)
1 year ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Johnson (H$100 at 21%)

Comments (4)

This is what you call a llloonnnggg term market!
posted 1 year ago
Vote Johnson, my four sons will be eligible in 17, 19, 25 and 34 years!
posted 1 year ago
  3 gregmatta
I'll be dead. Who do I leave my $H to. or is it H$. Whatever.
posted 1 year ago
  4 randburg
While we are excited by long term questions, how about this one: what will be the first last name to be shared by two astronauts landing on Mars?

If you really have nothing better to do, that should keep someone busy for a while...And NO FAIR saying "Kennedy"...
posted 1 year ago

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