Created Tue 29th Jul 2008 6:31pm PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

Olympics 2008: Will pollution cause any event to be postponed?

Settled as No

No postponements reported due to pollution

Background:

Background: Jacques Rogge, president of the IOC, has warned that outdoor endurance events will be postponed if the air quality is poor. The world's greatest distance runner, Haile Gebrselassie of Ethiopia, has decided not to run the marathon event because the city's pollution irritates his breathing.
Source: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,391759,00.html

Polution (or poor air quality) must be cited as the reason for the delay of one the event.

Settlement details:As reported by mainstream officia.
Polution (or poor air quality) must be cited as the official reason for the delay of the event and delay must be at least an hour from scheduled start.

Forecast history %

Yes

10%

90%

Settled as No on Mon 25th Aug 2008 5:13pm PST

Activity: H$37,753
Predictions: 73
Comments: 6

Suspend date: Sat 23rd Aug 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 25th Aug 2008 5:13pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 23rd Aug 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Tue 29th Jul 2008 6:32pm PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

Suspended Sat 23rd Aug 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Mon 25th Aug 2008 6:18am PST by

philphan1 Level 12, Guru (H$34,467)

: Olympics are over

Settlement requested Mon 25th Aug 2008 1:31pm PST by

rbrog77 Level 15, Seer (H$393,217)

: Shouldn't this be settled as No?

Settled as 'No' Mon 25th Aug 2008 5:13pm PST by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: No postponements reported due to pollution

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Predictions (73)

1 year ago

kiwifire Level 7, Pro (H$4,763)

predicted No (H$140 at 89%)

1 year ago

alison78 Level 11, Legend (H$16,357)

predicted No (H$50 at 88%)

1 year ago

xxxjetxxx Level 1, Newbie (H$514)

predicted No (H$50 at 88%)

1 year ago

jgardner100 Level 11, Legend (H$16,891)

predicted No (H$20 at 88%)

1 year ago

whtimo Level 11, Legend (H$24,064)

predicted No (H$1,951 at 88%)

Comments (6)

newswrangler [Power User]

See this earlier question: "Will pollution cause ANY event to be canceled?"

<http://www.hubdub.com/m12056/Olympics_2008_Will_pollution_cause_ANY_event_to_be_cancelled>

posted 1 year ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Yep, I just copied Cognos's question to ask this one... meant to include kudos to him for the original market (sorry!) Wanted something less severe than a complete cancellation as I just can't see them not running the marathon at all but an air quality delay seems a definite possibliity. Pollution is definitely one of the major stories coming out of these olympics so far but its hard to encapsulate that in a settleable market. What I really want to ask is "How much will air quality effect the games" but I can't think of a good way to ask that. (any ideas anyone?)

posted 1 year ago

mrperfkt [Admin]

How about something like "Will air quality effect the games in any of the following ways:" 1) Event is postponed or delayed; 2) even is moved to different venue; etc?

posted 1 year ago

valornhonor Level 9, Expert (H$7,618)

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/31/asia/beijing.php

posted 1 year ago

cognos Level 14, Prophet (H$177,193)

Polution has caused a political stir. Oh my, aren't we touchy.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/olympics/2008/08/06/cyclists.masks.ap/index.html?cnn=yes

posted 1 year ago

cognos Level 14, Prophet (H$177,193)

Check out the latest on pollution ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26089120/

Note:

Beijing officials on Friday continued to insist that the murky haze enveloping the city is not the result of pollution, but instead is fog created by moisture vapor in the air. Visibility, they say, is not necessarily an indicator of air quality.

"With this rain, we expect the weather in Beijing to be clearly improved," he said. "We have to look at the favorable weather conditions which can help spread and remove major pollutants."

What did he say?
It's Fog, but the rain should remove what???

posted 1 year ago