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How many of these obscure things will happen during the games of the 2008 MLB World Series?

Current forecast: Two to five of these things happen during WS (50% chance13%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Two to five of these things happen during WS with a probability of 50% (up 13% in last 1 day)

Please see comments for the list of 20 obscure, but possible baseball events. They are all very rare, and very newsworthy when they occur. For purposes of settlement market is looking to count How Many of these listed things will occur during the entire World Series Championship. If the same odd thing happens twice, it only will tally as once on the checklist. Market is not asking for the total number of occurences, rather, how many of these things will happen?

Suspend date is last day of regular season.
 
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None of these things happen during World Series.
13%
One of these things happens during World Series
12%
Two to five of these things happen during WS
50%
Six or more of these things happen during WS
25%
Activity: H$21,400
Question suspends in 1 week
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Wed 22nd Oct 12:59am PDT (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: None of these things happen during World Series.: 55%, One of these things happens during World Series : 25%, Two to five of these things happen during WS: 15%, Six or more of these things happen during WS: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 29th Jul 8:49pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Suspended Mon 29th Sep 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 30th Sep 5:49pm PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]: was: "2008-09-28 23:59:00"
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (75)

75 predictions

5 days ago
kevinvuichard predicted Two to five of these things happen during WS (H$20 at 52%)
1 week ago
bout3fitty predicted Six or more of these things happen during WS (H$500 at 27%)
4 weeks ago
lwodell2 predicted One of these things happens during World Series (H$100 at 11%)
6 weeks ago
bigh165 predicted Six or more of these things happen during WS (H$100 at 20%)
6 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted Two to five of these things happen during WS (H$2,000 at 58%)
more

Comments (17)

This is the list of 20 potential things for this market:

Pitching:
1. A wild pitch is thrown, advancing the batter.
2. Pitcher called for a balk.
3. Pitcher catches a hit ball in the air, not from a bounce.
4. Pitcher personally tags out a base runner.

Hitting:
1. Any player hits for the cycle in a single game; single, double, triple and a homerun.
2. Any player hits a grand slam.
3. Inside the park home run.
4. Triple, without an error.
5. Any batter advance to first base NOT as a result of a hit, or Base on Balls.
6. Both the left AND right field pole markers hit with a ball in the air, during the same game.
7. Hit ball bounces out of the field for a double.
8. Hit ball collides with a base runner before being touched by the fielding team.

Running:
1. Any player steals home.
2. One player steals more than one base in one inning.
3. “Pete Rose” style, face-first slide into a base, and safe.
4. Player collides with catcher, knocking ball loose and ruled, “Safe at home.”

Fielding
1. Any player (other than pitcher), makes a bare handed catch of a ball hit in the air.
2. Any player (other than pitcher), makes an unassisted triple play.
3. An outfielder, (left, center or right fielders only), throws out a runner at home plate, unassisted.
4. Fan reaches out over a wall into the field of play and “robs” any defensive player of chance to catch a ball and make an out.
posted 10 weeks ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
Can't you just make a question for each of these events to occur? I know it means more work, but they are much easier to track and settle individually.
posted 10 weeks ago
  3 onedave[Power User]
I have flagged this market for the following reason:

After reading the background, it appears that the words "all games" should be removed from the question.
posted 10 weeks ago
  4 kruijs[Power User]
Yes, onedave, such an event occurring in each and every of all games would really be amazing!
posted 10 weeks ago
  5 tisha[Admin]
I've changed the question title - the 'all games' only referred to the time period in question, obviously.
posted 10 weeks ago
  6 Erik
1. Any player (other than pitcher), makes a bare handed catch of a ball hit in the air.
Is this a fly ball? Does an infield chopper count...catching the ball while in the air as opposed to picking up a "roller" ?
posted 10 weeks ago
  7 Erik
This is gonna be a fun one....great market valor!!
posted 10 weeks ago
  8 mrperfkt[Admin]
Another great question, valor! For clarification... 1) this is occurrences across all games and 2) as you said these events were newsworth, do they have to show up in a news source? Just wondering the easiest way to keep track/count.
posted 10 weeks ago
@ Eric comment # 6....

My intent is that a pitched ball collide with the bat, and then the next thing the ball touches is a defensive player's bare hand, for a catch.
posted 10 weeks ago
@ mrperfkt # 8...

Looking for how many of these different things occur within the entire span of the whole World Series. Once any of these happen in any of the games, it would not be necessary to keep tracking it, that one thing will have then been checked off.

For example, if in the 1st, 3rd and 5th games there is a balk by a pitcher, in the 2nd and 4th games there is a Grand Slam and in a 6th game there a hit ball hits the left field foul pole and then later in the same game the opposite, right field foul pole, this would be a total of just 3 qualifying events. If this is still unclear, please let me know.

As for reporting, I think any of these weird things will make highlight reels for ESPN, normal evening news reports, www.mlb.com or other major news reports. I picked deliberately picked obscure things for this very reason.
posted 10 weeks ago
  11 buckeyetom
The starting odds of "None of these things happen during World Series" was set at 55%. I am sure that at least one event, namely an error on a batted ball allowing a hitter to reach first base safely, will occur. An error is not a hit. I think the odds on "none" should have been the long shot possibility with odds of around 2%, not 55%. This comment refers to item 5 under Hitting. Also I can't think of 7 games going without a batter being hit by a pitch (HBP).

Just wanted to mention this so future bettors can level out the odds. Good question and thanks for taking the time to write and post it.
posted 10 weeks ago
Thank you buckeyetom, this should be a chance for some players to make nice bucks if they jump on this early!
posted 10 weeks ago
  13 ironman288
Isn't number 4 in pitching and number 5 on hitting the same thing? is it really going to be counted twice if that happens?
posted 10 weeks ago
There are multiple ways that a batter can end up on first base:

1). Walk
2). Base hit
3). Hit by pitch
4). Error
5). Catcher's interference
6). Dropped third strike
7). Fielder's choice
posted 10 weeks ago
  15 buckeyetom
@valornhonor
The eighth way to get on first is to be a pinch runner. A really super-fun book to read about baseball and its obscure rules is "The Knotty Problems of Baseball".
posted 10 weeks ago
@ buckeyetom

You are so right! I forgot that one thanks so much. There are a lot of arcane nuances to baseball beyond what most kids enjoy as stickball in a field or in the street.
posted 10 weeks ago
  17 shadowfax
This is a great market, thanks for the creation.
posted 8 weeks ago

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