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Wordscraper vs Scrabble: who will take the Facebook market share by September 1?

Current forecast: Scrabble by 100,000 to 199,999 users (61% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Scrabble by 100,000 to 199,999 users with a probability of 61% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Yesterday, one day after taking down Scrabuluos in the U.S. and Canada in response to a lawsuit from Hasbro, the Indian brothers behind Scrabulous, Rajat and Jayant Agarwalla, released a brand new crossword-like game on Facebook called Wordscraper. The brothers have obviously been preparing this countermove for a long time. Wordscraper is designed to get around any of the intellectual property claims Hasbro has made against Scrabulous, especially the trademark infringement claims. The name is not a rip-off of Scrabble, the board looks very different, and there are even some new twists to the rules.

When Scrabulous was taken down, it had half a million daily active users and Hasbro’s/Electronic Arts’ official Facebook Scrabble game had only about 15,000. Two days later, the official Scrabble beta is up to 63,000 daily active users. Wordscraper has 3,600 daily active users. Now the race is on. Where will the bulk of Scrabulous fans go?

Wordscraper has a good chance of unseating the official Scrabble. (In a TechCrunch poll with 2878 respondents, 66 percent think that Hasbro went too far with its lawsuit and will suffer a resulting consumer backlash).
Source: http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/07/31/wordscraper-hurts-my-eyes/

This is between Hasbro's Scrabble game and the new Wordscraper. If Wordscraper is also shut down before settlement, will settle as "other". Scrabble will likely be coming out of beta during the month of August. That should have no effect on settlement.
 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Wordscraper by over 200,000 users
2%
Wordscraper by 100,000 to 199,999 users
2%
Wordscraper by 50,000 to 99,999 users
6%
Wordscraper by less than 50,000 users
5%
Exact tie or other outcome
2%
Scrabble by less than 50,000 users
6%
Scrabble by 50,000 to 99,999 users
14%
Scrabble by 100,000 to 199,999 users
61%
Scrabble by over 200,000 users
2%
Activity: H$13,965
Question suspends in 2 days
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: http://www.new.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=14916117452&b=&ref=pd_r_a
http://www.new.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=2521910901&b=&ref=pd_r_a

Suspend date: this Monday 12:59am PDT (2 days to go)

Initial likelihoods: Wordscraper by over 200,000 users: 2%, Wordscraper by 100,000 to 199,999 users: 13%, Wordscraper by 50,000 to 99,999 users: 20%, Wordscraper by less than 50,000 users: 30%, Exact tie or other outcome: 10%, Scrabble by less than 50,000 users: 15%, Scrabble by 50,000 to 99,999 users: 5%, Scrabble by 100,000 to 199,999 users: 4%, Scrabble by over 200,000 users: 1%

Action history:

Created Thu 31st Jul 9:55am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: http://www.new.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=14916117452&b=&ref=pd_r_a ... read all

 

Predictions (85)

85 predictions

2 hours ago
pippi1500 predicted Scrabble by less than 50,000 users (H$50 at 6%)
1 day ago
foosboy predicted Scrabble by 100,000 to 199,999 users (H$50 at 61%)
1 day ago
foosboy predicted Scrabble by 100,000 to 199,999 users (H$20 at 61%)
1 day ago
foosboy predicted Wordscraper by over 200,000 users (H$20 at 2%)
2 days ago
jakethesnake predicted Scrabble by over 200,000 users (H$20 at 2%)
more

Comments (26)

Beautifully composed question, thanks!
posted 4 weeks ago
  2 kasulked
I hear that the "official" scrabble version is very difficult to use and hard to download so I will go with wordscraper
posted 4 weeks ago
v&h - just challenged you to a game.. we'll try some research :) (and game the question +2 to wordscraper)
posted 4 weeks ago
OK Jenn, game in progress!
posted 4 weeks ago
  5 dieseldog
yahoo has literati. is basically the same game with a differnt name. i'll be sexiest and pick valor in 2 out of 3 :O) ok valor you got all men's reputation riding on this..no pressure, just crush jenni :O)
posted 4 weeks ago
OK, "Dog" as Randy of American Idol would say...

I accept the noble challenge and will live up to both halves of my username in a valiant attempt to best Jenni, she who holds both an "A" and "S" in her credentials!
posted 4 weeks ago
Hmm. Now all of a sudden I feel compelled to be paying a little more attention. I didn't realize I was representing my whole gender here. Maybe we could just make this users vs admins so if I lose I only let down 10 people instead of a several billion?

@dd - the nice thing about the wordscraper/scrabulous games is that you can play them at your leisure.. both parties don't have to be online at the same time. You just play whenever its convenient. I've got one game going with a friend thats taken about a month so far.
posted 4 weeks ago
  8 coolkraft
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080731/ap_on_hi_te/facebook_scrabble;_ylt=AuwElFXgfS17NSzr0Cf5rQ.s0NUE

FYI
posted 4 weeks ago
  9 kasulked
so what's going on with the game is Jenni representing us or is VH in the lead?????
posted 3 weeks ago
Jenni 216
V&H 97

(Although to be fair, this is a very strange board and completely possible to get a game changing play in.. there are a lot of tiles left!)
posted 3 weeks ago
The more important contest:
Scrabble: 85k
Wordscraper: 67k
posted 3 weeks ago
  12 dieseldog
come on V&H us men are counting on you :)
posted 3 weeks ago
just scored 932 points for a letter word... odd game.
posted 3 weeks ago
  14 kasulked
Jenni you can do it us girls have faith in you
posted 3 weeks ago
  15 kasulked
so what's the current score????
posted 3 weeks ago
@ kasulked....

although I've been fortunate to score well on a few Wordscrape games, my propensity for using a loquacious lexicon is not serving me well in this lofty matchup with the clever and wise Jenni, with only a pittance of tiles remaining she is mopping up the floor with me to the tune of 419 to 205, then again this may turn around if I can salvage some obscure English word with about six letter including a Q and no U... yeah right.
posted 3 weeks ago
buqsha, faqir, qadi, qaid, qanat, qasida, qat, qawwal, qawwali, qibla, qindar, qindarka, qintar, qigong, qin, qintar, qiviut, qoph, qwerty, sheqel, sheqalim, suq, tariqa, tranq, umiaq
posted 3 weeks ago
thnq que
posted 3 weeks ago
  19 kasulked
@ Fingers,

Thats not fair, leave it to the boys to cheat.....
posted 3 weeks ago
Not gonna help (483 vs 205 with 2 tiles remaining)

:)
posted 3 weeks ago
And:
Scrabble: 191k
Wordscraper: 133k
posted 3 weeks ago
@kasulked,

G'head and ask Jenni if she thinks I've played honorably.
posted 3 weeks ago
Bunny commented on the demise of Scrabuluos in her last video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_H4MwNvBV9U
posted 3 weeks ago
  24 dieseldog
@vh..how did you go from 932 on one word down to 205? looks like you let us males down..good try tho.

@jenni..congrads..i guess :)
posted 3 weeks ago
  25 kasulked
@V&H

I know you played honorably it's in your name. I was just joking around
posted 3 weeks ago
@ dieseldog, unfortunately the bizarre 932 word was in a different, non-Jenni game.
posted 2 weeks ago

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