How will Stacy Peterson be found?
Current forecast: Not found - still missing (72% chance
6%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Not found - still missing with a probability of 72% (up 6% in last 1 day)
Stacy Peterson is still missing. Most everyone think she is dead but there is no body and no one knows for sure.
Recent MSNBC story
[Category Editor comment] Although this question may look a little confusing at first, because of the ordering of the options, it actually is fine. You're predicting on whether she's Found Alive (and where), Found Dead (in what type of location), or Not Found in 2008. Just for clarity's sake, the option "Found dead on the Peterson property" will be interpreted to mean
only in the Peterson main dwelling (at time of disappearance) and surrounding grounds. Therefore any other Peterson property
will not be considered
the Peterson property, so if she's found dead there, one of the other options will apply.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
How will Stacy Peterson be found?
Found Alive in Illinois
Found Dead on the Peterson property
Found Dead in a body of water
Found Dead in a field
Found dead in a wooded area
Found Alive in any US state other than Illinois
Found Alive but not in a US state
Found Dead in any location not mentioned above
Not found - still missing
Zoom out
Forecast history, %
Make your prediction!
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Found Alive in Illinois |
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Found Dead on the Peterson property |
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Found Dead in a body of water |
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Found Dead in a field |
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Found dead in a wooded area |
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Found Alive in any US state other than Illinois |
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Found Alive but not in a US state |
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Found Dead in any location not mentioned above |
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Not found - still missing |
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Activity: H$13,740
Question suspends in 6 weeks
Suspend date: Fri 2nd Jan 2009 3:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Found Alive in Illinois: 4%, Found Dead on the Peterson property: 10%, Found Dead in a body of water: 10%, Found Dead in a field: 10%, Found dead in a wooded area: 10%, Found Alive in any US state other than Illinois: 6%, Found Alive but not in a US state: 10%, Found Dead in any location not mentioned above: 15%, Not found - still missing: 25%
Action history:
Created Sat 2nd Aug 6:14am PDT by
ryanb37
Suspended Sat 2nd Aug 7:05am PDT by
newswrangler![This user is a super user [Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif)
:
Flagged by super user: Many of the options are not mutually exclusive -- leading to potential difficulties at Settlement.
Unsuspended Sat 2nd Aug 4:32pm PDT by
infernalmachine![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
:
Although the options are "out of order", with a little sprucing up, the question has been determined to be okay (the options don't overlap).
Suspend date: Fri 2nd Jan 2009 3:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)
more info...
Predictions (15)
15 predictions
5 weeks ago
ryanb37 predicted
Not found - still missing (H$5,000 at 76%)
6 weeks ago
csseale predicted
Found dead in a wooded area (H$50 at 5%)
14 weeks ago
jarrod predicted
Not found - still missing (H$100 at 63%)
15 weeks ago
ryanj![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
predicted
Not found - still missing (H$20 at 63%)
15 weeks ago
pepe predicted
Not found - still missing (H$100 at 62%)
more5 weeks ago
ryanb37 predicted
Not found - still missing (H$5,000 at 76%)
6 weeks ago
csseale predicted
Found dead in a wooded area (H$50 at 5%)
14 weeks ago
jarrod predicted
Not found - still missing (H$100 at 63%)
15 weeks ago
ryanj![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
predicted
Not found - still missing (H$20 at 63%)
15 weeks ago
pepe predicted
Not found - still missing (H$100 at 62%)
15 weeks ago
doug predicted
Found Dead in a body of water (H$100 at 5%)
15 weeks ago
doug predicted
Found Dead in a field (H$100 at 7%)
15 weeks ago
doug predicted
Found Dead in a field (H$100 at 5%)
15 weeks ago
bout3fitty predicted
Not found - still missing (H$500 at 64%)
15 weeks ago
ryanb37 predicted
Not found - still missing (H$2,000 at 53%)
15 weeks ago
opie predicted
Not found - still missing (H$50 at 44%)
15 weeks ago
mrperfkt![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
predicted
Not found - still missing (H$300 at 42%)
15 weeks ago
frank2877 predicted
Not found - still missing (H$100 at 39%)
15 weeks ago
jenniandboys![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
predicted
Not found - still missing (H$1,000 at 32%)
Showing recent public predictions only
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Comments (10)
so i dont know how this would be hard to settle its pretty cut and dry for someone
with even a 1st grade education
If she is found in the woods, or in a field, or in a body of water -- she has to be found dead. If she is found in Illinois, or another state, or country she has to be found alive.
Initially, I mis-read "country" for "county". (need more coffee!)
But that's all.
Nit-picking:
"Found Dead Any way not mentioned above" could have been worded "Found Dead Any where not mentioned above"
The found alive part is OK, although could have been grouped logically in the options list.
Arggggh! OK, that's out of my system. I am going to unsuspend this, because in fact, once you shuffle the options into a more logical order, it's actually a sound question.
@ryanb37: Well, if you don't list the options in a logical order like (2,3,4,5,8,1,6,7,9), then people are going to get very confused, and someone's going to suspend your question. (In fact, I'm tempted to void this for being too confusing and ask you to resubmit with the options re-ordered into some logical form. But I won't this time.) Please try to consider this in future questions you create. If it can confuse jenniandboys and newswrangler (and myself too), then it's going to be difficult for new players who we don't want to scare off.
Changes: I will add a news link for the story, and an Editor's Comment to the background text to clarify the question. I'm also going to change "Found Alive in another country" to "Found alive - not in a US state" so that the possibility of being found in Guam or on a cruise in the Indian Ocean is covered. I would like to, but can't, re-order the options.
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