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How will Stacy Peterson be found?

Current forecast: Not found - still missing (72% chance6%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Not found - still missing with a probability of 72% (up 6% in last 1 day)

Stacy Peterson is still missing. Most everyone think she is dead but there is no body and no one knows for sure.

Recent MSNBC story

[Category Editor comment] Although this question may look a little confusing at first, because of the ordering of the options, it actually is fine. You're predicting on whether she's Found Alive (and where), Found Dead (in what type of location), or Not Found in 2008. Just for clarity's sake, the option "Found dead on the Peterson property" will be interpreted to mean only in the Peterson main dwelling (at time of disappearance) and surrounding grounds. Therefore any other Peterson property will not be considered the Peterson property, so if she's found dead there, one of the other options will apply.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Found Alive in Illinois
1%
Found Dead on the Peterson property
3%
Found Dead in a body of water
5%
Found Dead in a field
4%
Found dead in a wooded area
4%
Found Alive in any US state other than Illinois
2%
Found Alive but not in a US state
3%
Found Dead in any location not mentioned above
5%
Not found - still missing
72%
Activity: H$13,740
Question suspends in 6 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 2nd Jan 2009 3:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Found Alive in Illinois: 4%, Found Dead on the Peterson property: 10%, Found Dead in a body of water: 10%, Found Dead in a field: 10%, Found dead in a wooded area: 10%, Found Alive in any US state other than Illinois: 6%, Found Alive but not in a US state: 10%, Found Dead in any location not mentioned above: 15%, Not found - still missing: 25%

Action history:

Created Sat 2nd Aug 6:14am PDT by ryanb37
Suspended Sat 2nd Aug 7:05am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Many of the options are not mutually exclusive -- leading to potential difficulties at Settlement.
Unsuspended Sat 2nd Aug 4:32pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Although the options are "out of order", with a little sprucing up, the question has been determined to be okay (the options don't overlap).

Suspend date: Fri 2nd Jan 2009 3:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (15)

15 predictions

5 weeks ago
ryanb37 predicted Not found - still missing (H$5,000 at 76%)
6 weeks ago
csseale predicted Found dead in a wooded area (H$50 at 5%)
14 weeks ago
jarrod predicted Not found - still missing (H$100 at 63%)
15 weeks ago
ryanj[Admin] predicted Not found - still missing (H$20 at 63%)
15 weeks ago
pepe predicted Not found - still missing (H$100 at 62%)
more

Comments (10)

  1 ryanb37
Why was this suspended It has many outcome possibilitys and one to cover all possible deat houcomes and one to cover if she is not found. and if she is alive and found it has all possiblitys
so i dont know how this would be hard to settle its pretty cut and dry for someone
with even a 1st grade education
posted 15 weeks ago
  2 ryanb37
sorry i ment death outcomes
posted 15 weeks ago
Ryan, I missed it too at first, but NW is right that there is overlap between the options. What if she is found in the woods in Illinois? That would meet two of the outcomes. Perhaps you could rewrite with only the terrain options or only the location options. i.e. Illinios, State other than Illinios, International Water, Other country, Alive OR: woods, water, field, other, Alive.
posted 15 weeks ago
On reflection, I'm not sure the outcomes do overlap...

If she is found in the woods, or in a field, or in a body of water -- she has to be found dead. If she is found in Illinois, or another state, or country she has to be found alive.

Initially, I mis-read "country" for "county". (need more coffee!)
posted 15 weeks ago
Clearly we're all confused because I missed that the state part was alive and not dead. I give up and will return to Entertainment where things make more sense to me!
posted 15 weeks ago
  6 kruijs[Power User]
She can be found dead "in a body of water"/"in a field"/"in a wooded area" and in the same time "on the peterson property". The "wooded area" can be a problem too, what's about: A small like in a large forrest?
But that's all.

Nit-picking:
"Found Dead Any way not mentioned above" could have been worded "Found Dead Any where not mentioned above"
The found alive part is OK, although could have been grouped logically in the options list.
posted 15 weeks ago
[Category Editor response]

Arggggh! OK, that's out of my system. I am going to unsuspend this, because in fact, once you shuffle the options into a more logical order, it's actually a sound question.

@ryanb37: Well, if you don't list the options in a logical order like (2,3,4,5,8,1,6,7,9), then people are going to get very confused, and someone's going to suspend your question. (In fact, I'm tempted to void this for being too confusing and ask you to resubmit with the options re-ordered into some logical form. But I won't this time.) Please try to consider this in future questions you create. If it can confuse jenniandboys and newswrangler (and myself too), then it's going to be difficult for new players who we don't want to scare off.

Changes: I will add a news link for the story, and an Editor's Comment to the background text to clarify the question. I'm also going to change "Found Alive in another country" to "Found alive - not in a US state" so that the possibility of being found in Guam or on a cruise in the Indian Ocean is covered. I would like to, but can't, re-order the options.
posted 15 weeks ago
  8 ryanb37
Thanks all I see how some could have gotten confused
posted 15 weeks ago
  9 kruijs[Power User]
ups, typo, should read: "A small lake in a large forest"
posted 15 weeks ago
  10 mannie
Maybe he never put her in a lake. What if he buried her somewhere out in the woods somewhere. Personally I think she is dead. Someone would have found her by now. Besides he was having an affair and wanted to be with his mistress and thought the only way to have a new life was to get rid of his wife and baby. This is really sad. Why couldn't he just let her live and let his baby grow up.
posted 12 weeks ago

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