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Will Major Media Claim Ice Free North Pole by End of Summer 2008?

Settled as No

No such claim made by a major media source

Background:

Given widespread media hype about global warming, melting of ice caps, etc, despite the proven fact that the world has cooled in the past year and a half as much as the world warmed over the entire 20th century, before the end of summer, at least one major media outlet will claim to be broadcasting from the 'north pole' with open seas, but will not be within 1,000 miles of the north pole.

In this question, the "North Pole" is the geographical north pole, not the magnetic North Pole (which lies near Ellesmere Island in northern Canada at [show location on an interactive map] 81.3° N 110.8° W) or the related but still different and separate North Geomagnetic Pole off the northwest coast of Greenland at approximately 79.74° N 71.78° W. The geographical North Pole is the pole the earth rotates upon and is located at 90° N latitude.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
4%
No
96%
Activity: H$95,817
Settled as No on Mon 22nd Sep 6:04pm PDT

Suspend date: Sun 21st Sep 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 22nd Sep 6:04pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 21st Sep 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Sun 3rd Aug 5:52am PDT by intlibber
Suspended Mon 4th Aug 9:38am PDT by tisha[Admin]: suspended pending clarification
Unsuspended Sun 10th Aug 2:18am PDT by tisha[Admin]: See comments page for market clarifiation
Suspended Sun 21st Sep 4:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 22nd Sep 3:06pm PDT by Erik: Summer is over (http://solar-system-astronomy.suite101.com/article.cfm/first_day_of_fall) and I haven't seen or heard the claim. Please settle.
Settled as 'No' Mon 22nd Sep 6:04pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: No such claim made by a major media source

Suspend date: Sun 21st Sep 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 22nd Sep 6:04pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 21st Sep 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (109)

109 predictions

10 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$500 at 96%)
10 weeks ago
crazyguy510 predicted No (H$100 at 96%)
10 weeks ago
testing predicted No (H$2,022 at 96%)
10 weeks ago
bruns_david predicted No (H$27 at 93%)
10 weeks ago
freeze predicted No (H$100 at 93%)
more

Comments (13)

Regrettfully I can imagine this happening.
posted 17 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
Hallo intlibber - I can't tell if you're trying to be tongue in cheek or not. If
a news reporter is claiming to be reporting from the North Pole but isn't really, how
will we know? And is your question not a duplicate of http://www.hubdub.com/m10139/Will_the_North_Pole_be_ice_free_at_any_point_in_2008
posted 17 weeks ago
  3 intlibber
No its not a duplicate. This is not about any environmental event, this is a question asking whether the media will commit journalistic fraud, alleging an event which has not in fact occured, by broadcasting from one location but claiming to be in another.

Firstly, we need to see the media make such a report, then it can be investigated where they actually were when they made the report. For instance, I fully expect someone in the major medial to make such a report, but to do so from either the North Magnetic Pole or the North Geomagnetic Pole and claiming to be "at the north pole", when the true north pole is the Geographical North Pole at 90 degrees latitute (as I specify in the question). The magnetic pole locations are over 1000 miles from the geographical north pole.

I was VERY clear in my question and do not understand why you feel you need further clarification.
posted 16 weeks ago
  4 intlibber
What do I need to do to get this suspension released? It seems to me to be suppression of criticism of media manipulation to keep this under suspension.
posted 16 weeks ago
  5 destry[Admin]
@intlibber - you need to "flag for review" markets you want to bring to the attention category editors.
posted 16 weeks ago
  6 tisha[Admin]
@intlibber - market has now been unsuspended, wasn't trying to suppress criticism of media manipulation, just been offline this weekend.

I would still like to know how we will know whether this has been fraud or not - how will we settle the question?
posted 16 weeks ago
@ tisha -- to my read, "fraud" is not part of the question.
posted 16 weeks ago
  8 intlibber
Is there any hubdub rule against investigating things? For instance, if they are reporting from a ship, contacting the ship owners to find out where the ship was that day?

I think this will be a simple case of intentional misrepresentation, of the reporters calling the magnetic or geomagnetic north pole the "North Pole", when as far as climate is concerned, the true geographic north pole at 90 deg N latitude is what most people and climatologists consider the true north pole. Having a magnetic pole by greenland ice free is one thing, but the geographic north pole being ice free is an entirely different can of worms.

This is why I was so clear in the question about what is and is not the "North Pole" wrt this question.
posted 16 weeks ago
  9 intlibber
Anyways, verification of fraud can easily be determined: get a satellite image of the geographic north pole from the date the news media claims to be broadcasting from open seas there.
posted 15 weeks ago
From one of the links in the "Related News" side bar:

While the mass media, Al Gore and politicized bodies like the IPCC scaremonger about the perils of global warming and demand the poor and middle class pay CO2 taxes, both hard scientific data and circumstantial evidence points to a clear cooling trend.

How man-made global warming advocates will spin this one remains to be seen - maybe they will just continue to adopt their current tactic by claiming that any geological or weather event whatsoever, be it hurricanes, earthquakes, droughts or floods, temperature increase or decrease, and even a 30 per cent growth of the polar ice cap - is a result of that evil life-giving gas that we exhale - CO2.
posted 14 weeks ago
hmm - this question looks more like polemic than prediction.
posted 12 weeks ago
  12 randburg
I'm still struggling with this one:

The presumption is that the Media WILL make a "technical" lie of convenience, since there are three different north poles to choose from. The presumption further is that the Media will NOT specify which of the three north poles they are referring to. So the public could be duped by a technicality, "but will not be within 1,000 miles of the north pole"...OK...

So, if Major Media Claim Ice Free North Pole by End of Summer 2008 -- whether right or wrong -- the question settles as YES. If Major Media Does NOT Claim Ice Free North Pole by End of Summer 2008 -- whether right or wrong -- the question settles as NO. And all of this is REGARDLESS of which north pole they are referring to, and REGARDLESS of whether their claim is fraudulent or not.

But wait a minute! intlibber is insistent: "Is there any hubdub rule against investigating things?" Why would we want to investigate anything, if it makes no difference anyway?

I think the problem is: a word is missing from the question. Should it perhaps be:

"Will Major Media FALSELY Claim Ice Free North Pole by End of Summer 2008 (specified as the Geographical Northpole)?"
posted 11 weeks ago
  13 Erik
Hmmmm.....Summer is over in less than an hour/
posted 10 weeks ago

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