Created Tue 5th Aug 2008 5:33am PST by 
skipper
skipper 
How many more launches will it take SpaceX to get a rocket successfully into orbit?
Settled as 1 more launch
Yippee - SpaceX successfully launched and got into orbit today.
http://www.spacex.com/webcast.php
Background:
Background: SpaceX stands for Space Exploration Technologies Corporation. The company was founded by Elon Musk and its main goal is to become the first successful commercial manned space corporation. The rocket designed by SpaceX is called the Falcon. Its estimated cost is $7.9 Million. The third rocket launched on August 2nd but early into it's first stage the rocket experienced a engine problem and the rocket failed. So far SpaceX is 0 and 3 for successful launches but CEO Elon Musk says "There should be absolutely zero question that SpaceX will prevail in reaching orbit and demonstrating reliable space transport. For my part, I will never give up and I mean never."
The saddest thing about the launch was the losses sustained. The Falcon rocket was carrying "a Department of Defense satellite, two NASA satellites and the ashes of 208 people, including astronaut Gordon Cooper and James Doohan, the actor who played Scotty in the original Star Trek television show"
Because of the recent failure SpaceX is now short on cash and has rounded up outside investment from the Founders Fund run by Elon's friends. After the failed flight in an interview with Wired magazine he said "Optimism, pessimism, fuck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work." There's a very good possibility that if the next flights for Falcon fail SpaceX will be financially ruined due to lack of funding. The next flight is an all or nothing shot most probably. As to when the next launch will be is a tricky proposition. Another Falcon launch is scheduled for the last quarter of 08. But nothing specific has been announced. If the launch does occur it will be via a new rocket called the Falcon 9.
Falcon 9 Details:
The Falcon launch vehicle family is designed to provide breakthrough advances in reliability, cost, flight environment and time to launch. The primary design driver is and will remain reliability, as described in more detail below. We recognize that nothing is more important than getting our customer’s spacecraft safely to its intended destination.
Like Falcon 1, Falcon 9 is a two stage, liquid oxygen and rocket grade kerosene (RP-1) powered launch vehicle. It uses the same engines, structural architecture (with a wider diameter), avionics and launch system.
Falcon 1:
The Falcon Launch Vehicle Family is designed to provide breakthrough advances in reliability, cost, flight environment and time to launch. The primary design driver is and will remain reliability, as described in more detail below. We recognize that nothing is more important than getting our customer’s spacecraft safely to its intended destination.
Falcon 1 is a two stage, liquid oxygen and rocket grade kerosene (RP-1) powered launch vehicle. It is designed from the ground up for cost efficient and reliable transport of satellites to low Earth orbit.
Q & A with Musk: http://www.wired.com/science/space/news/2008/08/musk_qa
SpaceX: http://spacex.com/
The saddest thing about the launch was the losses sustained. The Falcon rocket was carrying "a Department of Defense satellite, two NASA satellites and the ashes of 208 people, including astronaut Gordon Cooper and James Doohan, the actor who played Scotty in the original Star Trek television show"
Because of the recent failure SpaceX is now short on cash and has rounded up outside investment from the Founders Fund run by Elon's friends. After the failed flight in an interview with Wired magazine he said "Optimism, pessimism, fuck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work." There's a very good possibility that if the next flights for Falcon fail SpaceX will be financially ruined due to lack of funding. The next flight is an all or nothing shot most probably. As to when the next launch will be is a tricky proposition. Another Falcon launch is scheduled for the last quarter of 08. But nothing specific has been announced. If the launch does occur it will be via a new rocket called the Falcon 9.
Falcon 9 Details:
The Falcon launch vehicle family is designed to provide breakthrough advances in reliability, cost, flight environment and time to launch. The primary design driver is and will remain reliability, as described in more detail below. We recognize that nothing is more important than getting our customer’s spacecraft safely to its intended destination.
Like Falcon 1, Falcon 9 is a two stage, liquid oxygen and rocket grade kerosene (RP-1) powered launch vehicle. It uses the same engines, structural architecture (with a wider diameter), avionics and launch system.
Falcon 1:
The Falcon Launch Vehicle Family is designed to provide breakthrough advances in reliability, cost, flight environment and time to launch. The primary design driver is and will remain reliability, as described in more detail below. We recognize that nothing is more important than getting our customer’s spacecraft safely to its intended destination.
Falcon 1 is a two stage, liquid oxygen and rocket grade kerosene (RP-1) powered launch vehicle. It is designed from the ground up for cost efficient and reliable transport of satellites to low Earth orbit.
Q & A with Musk: http://www.wired.com/science/space/news/2008/08/musk_qa
SpaceX: http://spacex.com/
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. I'm suspending this at the end of 2008 because I am unsure when the next launch will be, please change the suspend date when the information becomes available.
Forecast history %
| 1 more launch |
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| 2 more launches |
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| 3 more launches |
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| 4 more launches |
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| 5 more launches |
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| 6 or more launches |
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Settled as 1 more launch on Sun 28th Sep 2008 4:25pm PST
- Activity: H$19,357 |
- Predictions: 156 |
Comments: 12
Suspend date: Tue 23rd Dec 2008 3pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 28th Sep 2008 4:25pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 28th Sep 2008 3:15pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: 1 more launch: 25%, 2 more launches: 15%, 3 more launches: 20%, 4 more launches: 15%, 5 more launches: 15%, 6 or more launches: 10%
Action history:
Created Tue 5th Aug 2008 5:33am PST by skipper
skipper
Suspended Tue 23rd Sep 2008 3pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 23rd Sep 2008 3pm PST : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Wed 24th Sep 2008 5:09pm PST by 
tisha![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: succesful launch has not yet occurred - market is reopened
tisha: succesful launch has not yet occurred - market is reopened
Settlement requested Sun 28th Sep 2008 3:32pm PST by 
jenniandboys
: Settlement: 1
Prediction cutoff:Posted September 28, 2008 - 16:16 PDT
Source: http://www.spacex.com/webcast.php
jenniandboys: Settlement: 1
Prediction cutoff:Posted September 28, 2008 - 16:16 PDT
Source: http://www.spacex.com/webcast.php
Settled as '1 more launch' Sun 28th Sep 2008 4:25pm PST by tisha: Yippee - SpaceX successfully launched and got into orbit today.
http://www.spacex.com/webcast.php
tisha: Yippee - SpaceX successfully launched and got into orbit today.
http://www.spacex.com/webcast.php
Suspend date: Tue 23rd Dec 2008 3pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 28th Sep 2008 4:25pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 28th Sep 2008 3:15pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (156)
snake_eyes
predicted 1 more launch (H$20 at 64%)
paganagnostic
predicted 2 more launches (H$100 at 21%)
youbet
xxxjetxxx
predicted 1 more launch (H$200 at 66%)Comments (12)
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Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
I wager 1, or at the most 2 more attempts. But I bet they've got it figured out now.
GO SPACEX!
They are replacing a component in the 2nd stage LOX supply line, causing a few extra days' delay.
Latest launch window estimate is 9/28-10/1 per above link.
I can't believe it, I almost cried when they finally made orbit. Although to be fair, it sounds like Elon is a little choked up too...
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