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How many more launches will it take SpaceX to get a rocket successfully into orbit?

Current forecast: 1 more launch (52% chance1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 1 more launch with a probability of 52% (up 1% in last 1 day)

SpaceX stands for Space Exploration Technologies Corporation. The company was founded by Elon Musk and its main goal is to become the first successful commercial manned space corporation. The rocket designed by SpaceX is called the Falcon. Its estimated cost is $7.9 Million. The third rocket launched on August 2nd but early into it's first stage the rocket experienced a engine problem and the rocket failed. So far SpaceX is 0 and 3 for successful launches but CEO Elon Musk says "There should be absolutely zero question that SpaceX will prevail in reaching orbit and demonstrating reliable space transport. For my part, I will never give up and I mean never."

The saddest thing about the launch was the losses sustained. The Falcon rocket was carrying "a Department of Defense satellite, two NASA satellites and the ashes of 208 people, including astronaut Gordon Cooper and James Doohan, the actor who played Scotty in the original Star Trek television show"

Because of the recent failure SpaceX is now short on cash and has rounded up outside investment from the Founders Fund run by Elon's friends. After the failed flight in an interview with Wired magazine he said "Optimism, pessimism, fuck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work." There's a very good possibility that if the next flights for Falcon fail SpaceX will be financially ruined due to lack of funding. The next flight is an all or nothing shot most probably. As to when the next launch will be is a tricky proposition. Another Falcon launch is scheduled for the last quarter of 08. But nothing specific has been announced. If the launch does occur it will be via a new rocket called the Falcon 9.


Falcon 9 Details:
The Falcon launch vehicle family is designed to provide breakthrough advances in reliability, cost, flight environment and time to launch. The primary design driver is and will remain reliability, as described in more detail below. We recognize that nothing is more important than getting our customer’s spacecraft safely to its intended destination.

Like Falcon 1, Falcon 9 is a two stage, liquid oxygen and rocket grade kerosene (RP-1) powered launch vehicle. It uses the same engines, structural architecture (with a wider diameter), avionics and launch system.

Falcon 1:
The Falcon Launch Vehicle Family is designed to provide breakthrough advances in reliability, cost, flight environment and time to launch. The primary design driver is and will remain reliability, as described in more detail below. We recognize that nothing is more important than getting our customer’s spacecraft safely to its intended destination.

Falcon 1 is a two stage, liquid oxygen and rocket grade kerosene (RP-1) powered launch vehicle. It is designed from the ground up for cost efficient and reliable transport of satellites to low Earth orbit.

Q & A with Musk: http://www.wired.com/science/space/news/2008/08/musk_qa
SpaceX: http://spacex.com/
 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

1 more launch
52%
2 more launches
30%
3 more launches
11%
4 more launches
4%
5 more launches
2%
6 or more launches
1%
Activity: H$16,387
Question suspends in 16 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. I'm suspending this at the end of 2008 because I am unsure when the next launch will be, please change the suspend date when the information becomes available.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (16 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 1 more launch: 25%, 2 more launches: 15%, 3 more launches: 20%, 4 more launches: 15%, 5 more launches: 15%, 6 or more launches: 10%

Action history:

Created Tue 5th Aug 6:33am PDT by skipper[Power User]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. I'm suspending this at the end of 2008 because I am unsure when the next launch will be, please change the suspend date when the information becomes available.... read all

 

Predictions (137)

137 predictions

1 week ago
lachapin predicted 1 more launch (H$20 at 52%)
1 week ago
nicholasmacdonald predicted 1 more launch (H$50 at 50%)
1 week ago
yoshi predicted 1 more launch (H$20 at 48%)
1 week ago
divakaleigh predicted 3 more launches (H$20 at 10%)
1 week ago
bernardo predicted 1 more launch (H$100 at 50%)
more

Comments (7)

  1 skipper[Power User]
Note to Super Users and Cat Editors: This is an event-based question. (Forgot to tag it under settlement details as I will be doing in the future.)
posted 4 weeks ago
  2 ryanj[Admin]
I was driving on I-95 earlier this week and out of nowhere this huge truck carrying what I think was a portion of SpaceX drove right by. The top capusle looked like something similar to the Apollo mission orbiter capsules. Very, very cool!

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 4 weeks ago
  3 cognos[Power User]
I can't wait for this to happen!
I wager 1, or at the most 2 more attempts. But I bet they've got it figured out now.
GO SPACEX!
posted 4 weeks ago
  4 skipper[Power User]
Yea, it's not if, it's not even really when, it WILL happen soon!
posted 4 weeks ago
I watched the launch live on Saturday night via webcast! It was great fun to watch and the excitement in the control room was palpable when it finally went off. I felt SO bad for them when the stage separation failed -- clearly this is more a passion than a job for many of these people and to have it pass through maxQ only to die seconds later just seemed cruel. I hope it will work next time around, therefore that's where my money's going.
posted 4 weeks ago
This is so cool. I wish I had seen the last launch. We should definitely have a virtual party for the next one.
posted 4 weeks ago
  7 cognos[Power User]
When IS the next attempt?
posted 2 weeks ago

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