
How many more launches will it take SpaceX to get a rocket successfully into orbit?
1%)The saddest thing about the launch was the losses sustained. The Falcon rocket was carrying "a Department of Defense satellite, two NASA satellites and the ashes of 208 people, including astronaut Gordon Cooper and James Doohan, the actor who played Scotty in the original Star Trek television show"
Because of the recent failure SpaceX is now short on cash and has rounded up outside investment from the Founders Fund run by Elon's friends. After the failed flight in an interview with Wired magazine he said "Optimism, pessimism, fuck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work." There's a very good possibility that if the next flights for Falcon fail SpaceX will be financially ruined due to lack of funding. The next flight is an all or nothing shot most probably. As to when the next launch will be is a tricky proposition. Another Falcon launch is scheduled for the last quarter of 08. But nothing specific has been announced. If the launch does occur it will be via a new rocket called the Falcon 9.
Falcon 9 Details:
The Falcon launch vehicle family is designed to provide breakthrough advances in reliability, cost, flight environment and time to launch. The primary design driver is and will remain reliability, as described in more detail below. We recognize that nothing is more important than getting our customer’s spacecraft safely to its intended destination.
Like Falcon 1, Falcon 9 is a two stage, liquid oxygen and rocket grade kerosene (RP-1) powered launch vehicle. It uses the same engines, structural architecture (with a wider diameter), avionics and launch system.
Falcon 1:
The Falcon Launch Vehicle Family is designed to provide breakthrough advances in reliability, cost, flight environment and time to launch. The primary design driver is and will remain reliability, as described in more detail below. We recognize that nothing is more important than getting our customer’s spacecraft safely to its intended destination.
Falcon 1 is a two stage, liquid oxygen and rocket grade kerosene (RP-1) powered launch vehicle. It is designed from the ground up for cost efficient and reliable transport of satellites to low Earth orbit.
Q & A with Musk: http://www.wired.com/science/space/news/2008/08/musk_qa
SpaceX: http://spacex.com/
Make your prediction!
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1 more launch |
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2 more launches |
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3 more launches |
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4 more launches |
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5 more launches |
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6 or more launches |
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Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. I'm suspending this at the end of 2008 because I am unsure when the next launch will be, please change the suspend date when the information becomes available.
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (16 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
1 more launch: 25%, 2 more launches: 15%, 3 more launches: 20%, 4 more launches: 15%, 5 more launches: 15%, 6 or more launches: 10%
Action history:
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. I'm suspending this at the end of 2008 because I am unsure when the next launch will be, please change the suspend date when the information becomes available.... read all
Predictions (137)
137 predictions
Comments (7)
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Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
I wager 1, or at the most 2 more attempts. But I bet they've got it figured out now.
GO SPACEX!
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