Who will win the Canadian by-election in Guelph?

Looks like Jason Hammond (http://jasonhammond.blogspot.com/2008/08/hubdub-on-guelph-by-election.html) thinks this one can be bought. Easy money available by betting on anyone but Mike Nagy.

No, I don't believe that this can, or should, be "bought." This is an open prediction market, and my choice for a win is Mike Nagy. This is the best chance that the Greens have ever had to elect Canada's first Green MP, and I believe the electors of Guelph are ready to make it happen. The Greens won 20% in the provincial general election less than a year ago and Guelph is a very green-conscious city. The fact that this is a by-election creates an even spending playing field and voters know the government won't be changed by their decision (so they can vote FOR their values instead of against their fears). Hubdubbers are wise to stay genuine in their predictions. I think Nagy is a great bet, and I'm willing to put my H$ on it. Place your bets, folks!

You're free to put your money wherever you want Jason, but risking it all on Mike Nagy seems to indicate you're not looking to stick around on Hubdub after the by-election is over. Hopefully you do though, I'd love to see more Canadian political wonks on here.

Looks like the Tories are getting in on the action too: http://www.bluebloggingsoapbox.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2420:guelph-by-election-on-hubdubcom which explains why Gloria Kovach has shot up.

Thanks for posting the question - and the others on Canadian politics! Absolutely planning to stick around for more predictions after the Guelph by-election. I'm happy to risk it all - I'm that confident about Mike's chances, and Hubdub provides H$20 per login-day (they're so sweet).

Ha! Ha! That's funny. I logged on this morning to find predictions that the Greens will come in second with 32% of the vote. You can tell lots of them have been voting at this site. So, apparently they are more than a one issue party. So what are they? I heard that Elizabeth May recently told a group of people that a lot of poverty-stricken people have actually chosen to be poor. What's that all about?

I think Guelph is a very conservative city - with all of it churches and senior homes. The status quo is alive and well in this city - I think if change happens it will go to Tom King!

Polls of this nature tend to take quite a while to even out as bulk clumps of people vote for their preferance at a time. I suspect this is now more accurate.

I suspect you are right dr42. From what I can see, the race is between the Libs and the NDP. But I see the Tories 3rd and the Greens dead last.

Dear Canadianveggie

I would suggest changing the colours of the candidates so that Gloria Kovach is blue (not Green as she is now) and Mike Nagy is Green (not yellow as now) and then Tom King can be yellow or even better orange.

Some people voting quickly by colour may not be casting thier votes the way they intend.

Just a suggestion.

Dear cherylincanada

The Green Party is the most progressive party in canada on addressing poverty and advocates a guaranteed annual income -- (a negative income tax). So that individuals that make below the individual federal tax deduction would receive a top up to that level of income.

I don't know where you heard what you heard but in a by-election the old-line parties have active disinformation campaigns regarding the Green Party -- especially in this riding where Mike Nagy is tracking to win.

All the old-line parties committed to eliminate childhood poverty in Canada by the year 2000. They did this in 1989. today more Canadian children live in poverty than in 1989.

A staggering 1.1 million children live in poverty -- and it's a feminist issue too. Because the majority of single parent families living in poverty are headed by women who must make the untennable choice of either getting a typically low paying job or two or three to pay for daycare and not seeing their children because they're working all the time to support them -- or spend time with them raising them in poverty.

The Green Party would cut the subsidies to oil and gas interests ($1.4 billion a year) -- which are supported by the Liberals and Conservatives;

would cut the $1 billion of subsidies given to Ford, GM and Chrysler in Ontario -- supported by the NDP, the Liberals and the Conservatives -- becasue these auto companies have refused consistently produced gas guzzling vehicles and lobbyied heavily against mandatory, tough fuel efficiency standards (the very thing in hindsight that would have saved them).

Would cut the billions of subsidies to the nuclear industry;

Hope this helps.

Jim

@ jimh

Thanks for the background, this is fascinating stuff! I want to make sure I understand the guaranteed annual income angle.... If I'm a Canadian and I have the option of two jobs, one will pay me 50% of the guaranteed annual income, and the balance to be provided by the state, and the second job would pay me 80% and leave 20% to be covered by the state.... what incentive would I have to take option # 2? I don't mean to be simplistic, but it reads like a recipe for at least some of the populace to 'coast' and let society in general pay their way. Please tell me I'm missing something here, I'd be very interested to read further on this if you could provide some links.

Thanks!
v&h

I support the Green Parties desire to cut the $1 billion of subsidies given to Ford, GM and Chrysler in Ontario... that could make it more attractive financially for them to move their Canadian production across the border into the states... we'd love the extra work and you Canadian's can cash in on your guaranteed annual income ;-)

Sorry jimh. I can't change the colours of the bars. A feature request has been submitted to hubdub, but there's nothing that can be done now. http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/how_can_we_change_line_graph_colours

Hey Fingers of Fury

Oil as a finite resources inevitably will increase in price -- there are still a trillion barrels of oil under the Earth's crust -- but we've already exploited all the easy to accesss/easy to refine oil. So now oil companies are drilling in the Arctic, thousands of feed under the oceans, and refining tar sands -- where you have to spend a barrel of energy to refine three. So "peak oil" doesn't mean we're out of oil, just that we can't extract and refine it any faster. Meanwhile world demand continues to rise at 2-3% a year. Inevitably price will rise.

How many SUVs or Hummers will GM and Ford sell when gas it $4 a litre at the pump? the only way forward is fuel efficiency (something the Detroit automakers have vigorously resisted).

We can build an energy efficient economy which will provide the ultimate sustainable jobs -- sustainable economically and environmentally.

Will world to get to valornhonor's comments in the next few days!

@ jimh

"Will world to get to valornhonor's comments in the next few days!"

Huh?? Couldn't hear you, my radio is too loud in my H2. Did you mean... "Will get to valorhonor's comments in the next few days?" If so, looking forward to it. Entirely possible I'm misunderstanding your explanation and look forward to your comments. V&H
snonro

Any idea what happens to this question if a general election is called and the by-election is cancelled? Would the question be voided or would it be edited to reflect the winner of the general election in this riding?

It would be voided. A new question with a possibly revised slate of candidates and new background description would have to be created. (But the question creator can use the "copy question" button to save themselves some retyping and just add in any needed changes.)

Is that what happens if the election is called? The 4 by-elections are cancelled?

Yes. If a general election is called before Septeber 8, then all 4 by-elections are cancelled and any votes already cast (by advanced polling) are meaningless.

What happens to this poll if the general election is called?