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Will war break out in Mindanao Philippines before October 2008?

Voided

The initial odds on Yes are extremely high. This is then to be understood as: War is almost certain. But given the willingness of the Philippine government to negotiate with MILF and to help them with security for their election, outright war is not 90% likely. Void for incorrect initial odds.

Background:

The government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Frong (MILF), a secessionist group tagged as an "international terrorist organisation" has reached an agreement which would grant sovereign powers to the MILF. Under the deal, the MILF will govern their own state which will exist within the Philippine state. Various groups are opposing the deal, calling it a sham. While all of these are happening, armed groups in Mindanao are reportedly preparing for war.

Will war break out in Mindanao Philippines before October 2008?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Voided

Yes
95%
No
5%
Voided Sat 9th Aug 9:13am PDT

Suspend date: Sat 6th Sep 4:59pm PDT

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 95%

Action history:

Created Tue 5th Aug 11pm PDT by rickysaidso
Suspended Wed 6th Aug 8:20am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by supser user: Suspended pending review of starting odds by category editor.
Voided Sat 9th Aug 9:13am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: The initial odds on Yes are extremely high. This is then to be understood as: War is almost certain. But given the willingness of the Philippine government to negotiate with MILF and to help them with security for their election, outright war is not 90% likely. Void for incorrect initial odds.

Suspend date: Sat 6th Sep 4:59pm PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (7)

7 predictions

16 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted No (H$500 at 7%)
16 weeks ago
tisha[Admin] predicted No (H$20 at 5%)
16 weeks ago
greg77 predicted No (H$20 at 5%)
16 weeks ago
dingg458 predicted Yes (H$20 at 95%)
16 weeks ago
valornhonor[Power User] predicted No (H$11 at 5%)
more

Comments (3)

Ricky, if hadn't said so yourself I wouldn't have belived their acronym...
posted 16 weeks ago
  2 dieseldog
@vh...i was gonna comment on the acronym, but didn't wanna cross the line. you did a fine job.
posted 16 weeks ago
These people are already at war - they are muslim terrorists, and have killed over 120,000 people in the area already. The stories coming out of southern Phils are almost on par with those in the middle east.
posted 16 weeks ago

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