Created Tue 5th Aug 11pm PDT by 
rickysaidso
All questions » World » Other » rickysaidso Will war break out in Mindanao Philippines before October 2008?
Voided
The initial odds on Yes are extremely high. This is then to be understood as: War is almost certain. But given the willingness of the Philippine government to negotiate with MILF and to help them with security for their election, outright war is not 90% likely. Void for incorrect initial odds.
Background:
The government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Frong (MILF), a secessionist group tagged as an "international terrorist organisation" has reached an agreement which would grant sovereign powers to the MILF. Under the deal, the MILF will govern their own state which will exist within the Philippine state. Various groups are opposing the deal, calling it a sham. While all of these are happening, armed groups in Mindanao are reportedly preparing for war.
Will war break out in Mindanao Philippines before October 2008?
Will war break out in Mindanao Philippines before October 2008?
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Suspend date: Sat 6th Sep 4:59pm PDT
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 95%
Action history:
Created Tue 5th Aug 11pm PDT by rickysaidso
rickysaidso
Suspended Wed 6th Aug 8:20am PDT by 
newswrangler![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user")
: Flagged by supser user: Suspended pending review of starting odds by category editor.
newswrangler: Flagged by supser user: Suspended pending review of starting odds by category editor.
Voided Sat 9th Aug 9:13am PDT by 
infernalmachine![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: The initial odds on Yes are extremely high. This is then to be understood as: War is almost certain. But given the willingness of the Philippine government to negotiate with MILF and to help them with security for their election, outright war is not 90% likely. Void for incorrect initial odds.
infernalmachine: The initial odds on Yes are extremely high. This is then to be understood as: War is almost certain. But given the willingness of the Philippine government to negotiate with MILF and to help them with security for their election, outright war is not 90% likely. Void for incorrect initial odds.
Suspend date: Sat 6th Sep 4:59pm PDT
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score: 10
Reuters South Africa 16 weeks ago
temperature in the south is fast rising,' said Emmanuel Pinol, a vice governor in the southern region of Mindanao. He said farmers in most Catholic communities had been arming themselves to defend their property. 'The people are hurt. They are enraged by
score: 10
Philippines Daily Tribune 17 weeks ago
the ancestral domain issue granted by the Gloria Arroyo government to the secessionist Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the MILF claimed that a TRO from the SC has no bearing on the MoA, since it is already a "done deal" after the government panel members,
score: 10
Wall Street Journal Online 17 weeks ago
Extract not available.
score: 10
Philippine Daily Inquirer 17 weeks ago
settlement to end the Moro Islamic Liberation Front's 30-year fight for an independent Islamic state in the southern Philippines. Romulo, who had flown to the Malaysian capital for the planned signing, admitted the Supreme Court's decision Monday was
score: 10
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