Created Wed 6th Aug 3:40am PDT by 
shojun
All questions » Technology » Hubdub » shojun Will Hubdub's new Predictions List be the default by August 31, 2008?
Settled as No
Not currently the default.
Background:
We've all seen it - "New! Try the new sortable and searchable prediction list and send us feedback.", which directs us to :
http://www.hubdub.com/p/MyPositionsOpen?adv=1
Will this new list (or a slight variation of it) be the default by August 31, 2008?
To settle as such, there will no longer be a link to a "new" list, and the default list will have changed to a sortable-by-column format.
http://www.hubdub.com/p/MyPositionsOpen?adv=1
Will this new list (or a slight variation of it) be the default by August 31, 2008?
To settle as such, there will no longer be a link to a "new" list, and the default list will have changed to a sortable-by-column format.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Activity: H$49,270
Settled as No on last Tuesday 1:32am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
As seen on Hubdub
Suspend date: Wed 27th Aug 12:59am PDT
Settlement date: last Tuesday 1:32am PDT
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 27th Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods:
Yes: 40%
Action history:
Created Wed 6th Aug 3:40am PDT by shojun
shojun
Suspended Wed 6th Aug 1:01pm PDT by 
cognos![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user")
: Flagged by supser user: This is one of those questions that should be restricted from use by Hubdub superusers, category editors, and any other staff.
cognos: Flagged by supser user: This is one of those questions that should be restricted from use by Hubdub superusers, category editors, and any other staff.
Unsuspended Wed 6th Aug 1:03pm PDT by 
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: Market didn't need to be suspended. Market is reopen.
destry: Market didn't need to be suspended. Market is reopen.
Clarified Wed 6th Aug 1:06pm PDT by destry: Market is reopened. All predictions by supers, category editors, and admins are public. Any of those users with inside information would be in violation of the rules if they made a wager if they had inside information.
I can state clearly that I am a category editor and am not in the loop on when and what will occur on the technical side of Hubdub.
destry: Market is reopened. All predictions by supers, category editors, and admins are public. Any of those users with inside information would be in violation of the rules if they made a wager if they had inside information.
I can state clearly that I am a category editor and am not in the loop on when and what will occur on the technical side of Hubdub.
Clarified Wed 6th Aug 2:53pm PDT by 
nigeleccles: Just to confirm none of the category editors are in on the loop on whether this will happen. However, I can see a potential for confusion and therefore will request that category editors refrain from making predictions on Hubdub questions.
nigeleccles: Just to confirm none of the category editors are in on the loop on whether this will happen. However, I can see a potential for confusion and therefore will request that category editors refrain from making predictions on Hubdub questions.
Suspended Wed 27th Aug 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested last Monday 4:18pm PDT by 
pitchedoutsideleg: No
pitchedoutsideleg: No
Settled as 'No' last Tuesday 1:32am PDT by 
tomg: Not currently the default.
tomg: Not currently the default.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: As seen on Hubdub... read all
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76 predictions
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Some may have inside information.
I believe this should be voided.
Good find Erik.
So, Thank you for bringing this up Erik. Looks like Destry re-opened it.
I've been advised, though, after sending in reports via "Contact Us", that it does work for "most" users. Maybe it's because I have "more" predictions than "normal". In any event, if it is the default, I'll be without a way to view predictions.
This list doesn't work on my computer either, and I get errors and computer threats every time I try to use it. If this becomes the default and there is no link to the old system, it sounds like hubdub will use a number of members...
I've discussed this a few times with admins with no success...I thought I was the only person having trouble with this "sortable and searchable prediction list"...
So many things about hubdub work so well that it seems ashame to lodge a "complaint", but two items imho need attention:
(1) The sortable searchable prediction list that is the subject of this market,
and (2) The new prediction percentage that makes my head stand on end...
A theoretical market: Will Nigel leave Leslie by November 08?...at 12%...means WHAT?
Nigel wants us to read that it is 12% likely. The real answer is NO 88% UNLIKELY. Up until a week ago, we "said it like it is", namely NO 88%. I think Leslie might prefer the 88% unlikely! All jokes aside, I think this is an uncessary source of confusion...
Again, I am under the impression that I am the only one who doesn't like the new prediction percentage. Am I the only one who doesn't like turning answers around? If so, I will be happy to bow to majority preference...If this has already been discussed, could somebody please post a link under these comments? Many Thanks.
As a somewhat official response to pont 2, the goal is to make it clear that our probabilities are actually forecasts of what the Hubdub community thinks is going to happen in real life... generally one would say there is a 10% chance of rain rather than a 90% chance of not raining. Forecasts are typically stated in the positive. I will admit it threw me at first too, but I hope you can get used to it, because I don't think its going anywhere :)
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