Created Wed 6th Aug 3:33pm PDT by superhans

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Will a computer pass the Turing Test at this year's Loebner Prize contest?

One robot, Elbot, came close on Sunday by reaching 5% below the pass mark. But still, no robot has ever passed the Turing Test, which requires the robot to fool 30% of its human interrogators.

During the experiment, five artificial conversational entities (ACEs) competed in a series of five-minute long, unrestricted conversational tests.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/berkshire/7666246.stm

Background:

Settlement details: Determined by whether the $100,000 Loebner 'Grand Prize' is claimed at this year's contest.

Will a computer pass the Turing Test at this year's Loebner Prize contest?

    Yes

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Forecast history, %

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Settled

	Yes	6%
	No	94%

Activity: H$107,884

Settled as No on Mon 13th Oct 4:57am PDT

Suspend date: Sat 11th Oct 3:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 13th Oct 4:57am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 11th Oct 3:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Wed 6th Aug 3:33pm PDT by superhans

Suspended Sat 11th Oct 3:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached

Settled as 'No' Mon 13th Oct 4:57am PDT by tisha: One robot, Elbot, came close on Sunday by reaching 5% below the pass mark. But still, no robot has ever passed the Turing Test, which requires the robot to fool 30% of its human interrogators.

During the experiment, five artificial conversational entities (ACEs) competed in a series of five-minute long, unrestricted conversational tests.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/berkshire/7666246.stm

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Suspend date: Sat 11th Oct 3:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 13th Oct 4:57am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 11th Oct 3:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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Predictions (170)

170 predictions

7 weeks ago

chrisfmasse predicted No (H$1 at 94%)

7 weeks ago

infernalmachine predicted No (H$3,000 at 94%)

7 weeks ago

fooobart predicted No (H$20 at 93%)

7 weeks ago

jjoy predicted No (H$50 at 93%)

7 weeks ago

davew predicted No (H$100 at 93%)

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7 weeks ago

chrisfmasse predicted No (H$1 at 94%)

7 weeks ago

infernalmachine predicted No (H$3,000 at 94%)

7 weeks ago

fooobart predicted No (H$20 at 93%)

7 weeks ago

jjoy predicted No (H$50 at 93%)

7 weeks ago

davew predicted No (H$100 at 93%)

7 weeks ago

arnos predicted No (H$2,500 at 93%)

7 weeks ago

donquixote predicted Yes (H$100 at 8%)

7 weeks ago

tmfshoe predicted No (H$100 at 93%)

7 weeks ago

clahey predicted No (H$200 at 93%)

7 weeks ago

cici predicted Yes (H$100 at 7%)

7 weeks ago

realityapologist predicted No (H$100 at 93%)

7 weeks ago

cheese predicted Yes (H$20 at 7%)

7 weeks ago

shojun predicted No (H$400 at 93%)

7 weeks ago

queviltai predicted No (H$20 at 93%)

7 weeks ago

foosboy predicted No (H$259 at 93%)

7 weeks ago

foosboy predicted No (H$100 at 93%)

8 weeks ago

carrjm predicted No (H$29 at 93%)

8 weeks ago

cmueller predicted No (H$50 at 93%)

8 weeks ago

cmueller predicted No (H$50 at 93%)

8 weeks ago

achew22 predicted No (H$2,593 at 92%)

Showing recent public predictions only

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Comments (4)

  1 ratel

wow, hope springs eternal. I'm not saying its impossible, really, just not yet...at all.

posted 11 weeks ago

  2 arnos

Agreed

posted 10 weeks ago

  3 achew22

Please close it as no. No computer passed http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/berkshire/7666246.stm

posted 7 weeks ago

  4 tisha

@achew22 - best way to catch the category editor's attention to a needed settlement is to send in a settlement request (see icon under market options) with your link.

I've sent one in for you on this occasion.

posted 7 weeks ago

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