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Will the fourth attempt to launch Falcon 1 occur by the end of September?

Settled as Yes

Yes - Falcon 1 successfully launched today.

September 28, 2008 - 16:16 PDT
Source: http://www.spacex.com/webcast.php


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
88%
No
12%
Activity: H$90,409
Settled as Yes on Sun 28th Sep 5:29pm PDT

Suspend date: Tue 30th Sep 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Sun 28th Sep 5:29pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 28th Sep 4:15pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 33%

Action history:

Created Wed 6th Aug 11:14pm PDT by orlin
Suspended Sun 28th Sep 4:18pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Flagged by admin: liftoff
Settlement requested Sun 28th Sep 4:30pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Yes
Prediction cutoff
Posted September 28, 2008 - 16:16 PDT
Source: http://www.spacex.com/webcast.php
Settled as 'Yes' Sun 28th Sep 5:29pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: Yes - Falcon 1 successfully launched today.

September 28, 2008 - 16:16 PDT
Source: http://www.spacex.com/webcast.php

Suspend date: Tue 30th Sep 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Sun 28th Sep 5:29pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 28th Sep 4:15pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (58)

58 predictions

9 weeks ago
atrane predicted Yes (H$595 at 88%)
9 weeks ago
oppugner predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 87%)
9 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted No (H$20 at 12%)
9 weeks ago
drachenstein predicted Yes (H$500 at 88%)
9 weeks ago
nicholasmacdonald predicted No (H$100 at 80%)
more

Comments (9)

From their update posted yesterday:

http://spacex.com/updates.php

"It looks like we may have flight four on the launch pad as soon as next month. The long gap between flight two and three was mainly due to the Merlin 1C regen engine development, but there are no technology upgrades between flight three and four. "
posted 16 weeks ago
http://spacefellowship.com/News/?p=6653

"SpaceX is preparing for their next test flight of their Falcon 1 rocket from Kwajalein in the Pacific. This flight was added to the launch manifest after the failure of flight 3 back in August. Diane Murphy, SpaceX’ Vice President for Marketing and Communications stated „We will actually be launching that [Falcon 1] for the fourth time probably within two weeks“ during AIAA Space 2008 Conference in San Diego from September 9-11. The fourth rocket was delivered to Kwajalein in early September."
posted 10 weeks ago
Also, what will count as an "attempt" for the purposes of this question? What if the rocket gets put on the pad but technical difficulties prevent launch?
posted 10 weeks ago
New update:

http://spacex.com/updates.php

Posted September 19, 2008

As mentioned in my update last month, we do expect to conduct a launch countdown in late September — as scheduled.

Having said that, it is still possible that we encounter an issue that needs to be investigated, which would delay launch until the next available window in late October. If preparations go smoothly, we will conduct a static fire on Saturday and launch sometime between Tuesday and Thursday (California time).

The SpaceX team worked hard to make this launch window, but we also took the time to review data from Flight 3 in detail. In addition to us reviewing the data, we had several outside experts check the data and conclusions. No flight critical problems were found apart from the thrust transient issue.

Flight 5 production is well underway with an expected January completion date, Flight 6 parts are on order and Flight 7 production will begin early next year. We are now in steady state production of Falcon 1 at a rate of one vehicle every four months, which we will probably step up to one vehicle every two to three months in 2010.

--Elon--
posted 10 weeks ago
  5 orlin
Attempt to launch is just that: rocket is fired and lifted off from the pad.
I called it "attempt" namely because there were already three and none sucsessful.
Rocket on the pad and technical difficulties prevent the launch - this is not attempt, but preparations only.
posted 10 weeks ago
Another update: http://spacex.com/updates.php

(received via email, so not yet on their site)
---
The static fire took place on Saturday [20 Sep 2008, CA time], as expected, and no major issues came up. However, after a detailed analysis of data, we decided to replace a component in the 2nd stage engine LOX supply line. There is a good chance we would be ok flying as is, but we are being extremely cautious.

This adds a few extra days to the schedule, so the updated launch window estimate is now Sept 28th through Oct 1st [CA time].
posted 10 weeks ago
In case anyone else was wondering about the big jump, SpaceX just announced that the launch is on for later today:

http://spacex.com/updates.php

"Falcon 1 is currently cleared for liftoff sometime between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. (California time) tomorrow, Sunday September 28th. Of course, if we see anything that requires investigation, the launch will be postponed, but we’ll let you know as soon as we know. As with prior flights, you can access the webcast from the SpaceX site: www.spacex.com"
posted 9 weeks ago
T-15 minutes, webcast here: http://spacex.com/webcast.php
posted 9 weeks ago

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