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Will CERN's Large Hadron Collider discover supersymmetry by Dec 31, 2010?

Background: Supersymmetry is an idea in particle physics which says that every elementary particle of nature has a high-energy 'superpartner'. No particle accelerator yet built has been powerful enough to detect these extra particles, but physicists hope the LHC might have what it takes. Supersymmetry could lead to a unified view of the forces of nature and solve the 'dark matter' problem - why 20 percent of the mass of the universe seems to be invisible. For more, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersymmetry

Settlement details:Settled by an announcement from CERN, or by publication of a detection result in a reputable scientific journal.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
26%
No
74%
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 3:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Wed 6th Aug 2008 11:14pm PST by superhans

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 3:59pm PST (1 year to go) details

 

Predictions (30)

1 week ago
corbelle predicted No (H$20 at 74%)
1 week ago
bipedprimate predicted No (H$100 at 75%)
12 weeks ago
shinden predicted No (H$50 at 74%)
13 weeks ago
blingbearer predicted Yes (H$15 at 26%)
35 weeks ago
xihrhubdub predicted No (H$50 at 74%)

Comments (4)

  2 mork[Power User]
Now, a bird dropping a piece of bread on a section of the accelerator has, according to the Register, shut down the whole operation.
http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2009-11/bread-loving-bird-shuts-down-lhc
posted 2 weeks ago
  3 sqlman[Admin]
Bread from a bird. Hmm. It's amazing the things Higgs' boson will do to keep itself from being discovered...

http://www.crunchgear.com/2009/11/05/breaking-large-hadron-collider-shut-down-by-precision-bird-strike/
posted 2 weeks ago
How was this possibility not foreseen and designed around? I suppose there are always bugs in every complex system until you finally get it right.
posted 2 weeks ago

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