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Will Facebook IPO/Exit At A Valuation Greater Than $15bn

Current forecast: 55% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 55% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Microsoft invested in Facebook last year at a $15bn valuation which many cited as excessive. Will Facebook be able to IPO or exit at that valuation (or higher)?
 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
55%
No
45%
Activity: H$7,291
Question suspends in 1 year
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Sun 8th Aug 2010 12:59am PDT (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Thu 7th Aug 1:51am PDT by fredwilson
Clarified Thu 7th Aug 3:10pm PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: Yes, Facebook has indicated for some time that they want to go to an IPO. With Microsoft investing at $15bn it would be expected that their next round (whether IPO or acquisition) would be higher.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (42)

42 predictions

22 hours ago
woodkey predicted No (H$100 at 45%)
2 days ago
pedro_dc predicted No (H$100 at 45%)
5 days ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted No (H$200 at 44%)
2 weeks ago
dai_hard predicted Yes (H$50 at 54%)
2 weeks ago
kennyk predicted No (H$200 at 46%)
more

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