Created Fri 8th Aug 10:34am PDT by 
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Will Russian Forces be on the ground in Georgia's capital Tblisi before Sept 9, 2008?
Settled as No
No such reports. Settled as No.
Background:
Despite the "so-called ceasefire" Russian and Georgian troops are still clashing in Georgia. Gori the largest city near the South Ossetia border has been sacked by the Russians and to some it seems Tblisi
is the main objective. An AP reporter working on the road to Gori reportedly had a Russian soldier say to her "Come with us, beauty, we're going to Tbilisi!"
The Russians have said they're objective is not regime change, but with Soviet era armor heading towards Tblisi it doesn't appear this conflict is going to reach a peaceful conclusion. The US gov't has authorized US military personal to provide humanitarian assistance to Geogria and "boots are on the ground." The situation which at first looked under control is now unraveling quicker and quicker.
The major point that this conflict will bring home to many of America's Ex-Soviet bloc allies is that American support and protection is no longer guaranteed in a world where America's armed forces are overstretched. A Russian siege of Tblisi would be a bloody encounter, and not much could be done about it. Here's to hoping we weren't back in the Cold War!
Related Articles:
U.S. warns Russia and sends Georgia aid
The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power
U.S. to take control of Georgian ports
This question asks whether the current conflict could lead to there being actual Russian troops occupying or fighting on the ground (bombing runs don't count) within the city limits of Georgia's capital city, Tblisi. Must occur before Sept 9 local Tblisi time.
is the main objective. An AP reporter working on the road to Gori reportedly had a Russian soldier say to her "Come with us, beauty, we're going to Tbilisi!"
The Russians have said they're objective is not regime change, but with Soviet era armor heading towards Tblisi it doesn't appear this conflict is going to reach a peaceful conclusion. The US gov't has authorized US military personal to provide humanitarian assistance to Geogria and "boots are on the ground." The situation which at first looked under control is now unraveling quicker and quicker.
The major point that this conflict will bring home to many of America's Ex-Soviet bloc allies is that American support and protection is no longer guaranteed in a world where America's armed forces are overstretched. A Russian siege of Tblisi would be a bloody encounter, and not much could be done about it. Here's to hoping we weren't back in the Cold War!
Related Articles:
U.S. warns Russia and sends Georgia aid
The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power
U.S. to take control of Georgian ports
This question asks whether the current conflict could lead to there being actual Russian troops occupying or fighting on the ground (bombing runs don't count) within the city limits of Georgia's capital city, Tblisi. Must occur before Sept 9 local Tblisi time.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Activity: H$472,376
Settled as No on Mon 8th Sep 3:21pm PDT
Suspend date: Sat 6th Sep 5:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 8th Sep 3:21pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 6th Sep 5:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%
Action history:
Created Fri 8th Aug 10:34am PDT by infernalmachine
infernalmachine
Suspended Sat 6th Sep 5:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 8th Sep 1:46pm PDT by 
orlin: It is already Sept. 9 Georgia's local time.
No reports or news that such event occured.
orlin: It is already Sept. 9 Georgia's local time.
No reports or news that such event occured.
Settled as 'No' Mon 8th Sep 3:21pm PDT by infernalmachine: No such reports. Settled as No.
infernalmachine: No such reports. Settled as No.
Suspend date: Sat 6th Sep 5:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 8th Sep 3:21pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 6th Sep 5:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (380)
380 predictions
bbogdn
piterwilson
rbrog77
cognos![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted Yes (H$333 at 5%)
shojunComments (17)
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score: 10
NPR 10 weeks ago
European foreign ministers open two days of talks Friday in southern France to discuss sending civilian monitors to Georgia. The aim is to convince...
score: 10
Yahoo! News 11 weeks ago
The United States welcomed Europe's involvement in the Russia-Georgia dispute as laid out Monday in decisions by European Union leaders in an...
score: 10
score: 10
Town Hall 13 weeks ago
TBLISI, Georgia (BP)--A Southern Baptist overseas team has engaged the relief crisis in the Black Sea country of Georgia, where an estimated 50,000 people, driven from their homes by fighting, have
score: 10
Macro World Investor 13 weeks ago
DATELINE: Tblisi, Georgia British Foreign Secretary David Miliband has warned Russia that its military operations in the former Soviet republic of Georgia undermine its relations with the West. Miliband made the comments
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infernalmachine
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Soldiers waved at journalists and one soldier shouted to a photographer takning shots of the convoy: "Come with us, beauty, we're going to Tbilisi." Gori is about a 90-minute drive from the Georgian capital.>>
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080813/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_russia
Regards,
Ryan
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/16/georgia.russia.war/index.html
Should we wait another one, new war, to settle this?
infernal provided a date.
I think we wait for either the author's date, or earlier, if the event the question happens.
'Cease fires', signed or not, does NOT indicate that the "issue" is over. If either of the parties break any of the conditions of the cease fire, we are back to a war-like environment.
I think that Russia is waiting for Georgia to make a move. Then, they'll have the international cover they need to enter Tblisi.
jmho of course.
A Russian military convoy advanced to a village 45 km (30 miles) from Tbilisi on Friday
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSLF9676120080815?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true
me too.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4547797.ece
http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=154073
Still uping the anti on Yes.
"If the United States and its allies ultimately opt for the Saakashvili regime, which has not taken any lessons from the recent events regarding South Ossetia ... they will make a mistake of an historic scope," the news agency Interfax quoted Lavrov as saying.
He said Russia would continue taking measures against the Saakashvili administration "to ensure that this regime will never commit evil again."
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/09/02/russia.georgia.summit.sanctions/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/09/04/cheney.georgia.tour/index.html
could provoke a move on Tblisi.
Pity the suspend date is so soon on this question. If anyone wants to ask a longer term question about what happens next, it would be a good time.
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