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Will Russian Forces be on the ground in Georgia's capital Tblisi before Sept 9, 2008?

Current forecast: 19% chance 2%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 19% likely to happen (up 2% in last 1 day)

Despite the "so-called ceasefire" Russian and Georgian troops are still clashing in Georgia. Gori the largest city near the South Ossetia border has been sacked by the Russians and to some it seems Tblisi
is the main objective. An AP reporter working on the road to Gori reportedly had a Russian soldier say to her "Come with us, beauty, we're going to Tbilisi!"

The Russians have said they're objective is not regime change, but with Soviet era armor heading towards Tblisi it doesn't appear this conflict is going to reach a peaceful conclusion. The US gov't has authorized US military personal to provide humanitarian assistance to Geogria and "boots are on the ground." The situation which at first looked under control is now unraveling quicker and quicker.

The major point that this conflict will bring home to many of America's Ex-Soviet bloc allies is that American support and protection is no longer guaranteed in a world where America's armed forces are overstretched. A Russian siege of Tblisi would be a bloody encounter, and not much could be done about it. Here's to hoping we weren't back in the Cold War!

Related Articles:
U.S. warns Russia and sends Georgia aid
The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power
U.S. to take control of Georgian ports

This question asks whether the current conflict could lead to there being actual Russian troops occupying or fighting on the ground (bombing runs don't count) within the city limits of Georgia's capital city, Tblisi. Must occur before Sept 9 local Tblisi time.
 
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Yes
19%
No
81%
Activity: H$381,812
Question suspends in 1 week
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Sat 6th Sep 5:59pm PDT (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Fri 8th Aug 10:34am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (317)

317 predictions

19 hours ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Yes (H$500 at 18%)
1 day ago
snake_eyes predicted No (H$100 at 83%)
1 day ago
bigken1 predicted No (H$2 at 82%)
2 days ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Yes (H$100 at 17%)
2 days ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Yes (H$100 at 17%)
more

Comments (14)

Clarification: Just as bombing runs don't count, neither do artillery barrages. The Russians have to be within the city limits, and boots on the ground. So paratrooper drops DO count.
posted 2 weeks ago
  2 bayoubear[Admin]
A bit from a report this morning.....<<An AP reporter saw several dozen Russian military trucks and armored vehicles speeding out of Gori and heading south, further from the breakaway province of South Ossetia.

Soldiers waved at journalists and one soldier shouted to a photographer takning shots of the convoy: "Come with us, beauty, we're going to Tbilisi." Gori is about a 90-minute drive from the Georgian capital.>>
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080813/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_russia
posted 2 weeks ago
  3 ryanj[Admin]
I've done a major overhaul to the above background and included some reading material. I was born when the Cold War had just ended and never felt the apprehension of a bi-polar world order. My thinking had always been that any coming conflict would be something to do with China. But the reckless Russian behavior and their "invasion" have taught me a lessen. I personally don't think Tblisi will fall to the Russians or that the Ruskies will annex Georgia, but international politics has a funny way of surprising you!

Regards,
Ryan
posted 2 weeks ago
@bayoubear Those military trucks had several reporters go to them and they clearly had stopped there descent and are camped near by. The story was they never wanted to go to the capital and that story remains.
posted 2 weeks ago
  5 orlin
CNN: "Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signs cease-fire deal"
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/16/georgia.russia.war/index.html
Should we wait another one, new war, to settle this?
posted 1 week ago
  6 cognos[Power User]
I think the author was clear.
infernal provided a date.
I think we wait for either the author's date, or earlier, if the event the question happens.
'Cease fires', signed or not, does NOT indicate that the "issue" is over. If either of the parties break any of the conditions of the cease fire, we are back to a war-like environment.
I think that Russia is waiting for Georgia to make a move. Then, they'll have the international cover they need to enter Tblisi.

jmho of course.
posted 1 week ago
According to Reuters they advanced to only 30 miles away yesterday

A Russian military convoy advanced to a village 45 km (30 miles) from Tbilisi on Friday
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSLF9676120080815?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true
posted 1 week ago
30 miles, 24 days, 10% odds... I'm sticking with YES
posted 1 week ago
  9 cognos[Power User]
@f_o_f
me too.
posted 1 week ago
  10 buckeyetom
I'm with fof. Cease fires were made to be broken. YES is still very viable.
posted 1 week ago
Yeah, I agree. The cease fire agreement gives someone a paper to wave around and prove that these events must not be happening because "it says so right here"! - it is analogous to Baghdad Bob http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXhxmQJSS0
posted 1 week ago
Russia digs in 20 miles from Georgian capital
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4547797.ece
posted 1 week ago
Secret BBC News Video Shows Russian Troops Deep Inside Georgia
http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=154073
posted 1 week ago
  14 cognos[Power User]
Hey what's with Poti (the Port)? They certainly don't need that to ship in Vodka?
Still uping the anti on Yes.
posted 6 days ago

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