tarpash 
Will Russia and Georgia agree to a cease-fire by Aug 16?
I'll settle this as Yes, based on this. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7557457.stm
Time: 6:12pm EDT
Background:
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Suspend date: Sat 16th Aug 9:59pm PDT Settlement date: Tue 12th Aug 4:46pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 12th Aug 3:10pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 35%
Action history:
tarpash 
richie_edinburgh: Russia has called off the attack: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/12/russia.georgia jbolli: News reporting today a cease fire. 
Erik: "Oil price dives after 'ceasefire' in Georgia"
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=449644&in_page_id=2&position=moretopstories
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: Flagged by super user: Suspended -- breaking news 
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: I'll settle this as Yes, based on this. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7557457.stm
Time: 6:12pm EDT
Suspend date: Sat 16th Aug 9:59pm PDT Settlement date: Tue 12th Aug 4:46pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 12th Aug 3:10pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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Nowhere in the question is an "official" cease fire required, whatever that would specifically entail. I'd argue that today's events do constitute a cease fire, in the spirit the question was created.
But again, just my opinion. Have a great deal of respect for the Hubdub crew, as a lot of these questions are difficult to determine.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/12/georgia.russia.war/index.html
I had a good exchange with an admin earlier (because I also felt the Russian announcement might be enough), who is following this very closely. The feeling is that there's too much uncertainty at the moment - that although there might be a de-facto ceasefire, it might just be for show, there's apparently still fighting, etc.
I can see the logic of this, as the question talks about *agreeing* a ceasefire, which hasn't really happened yet.
It's a tough call, certainly.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=449644&in_page_id=2&position=moretopstories
Good case could be made that the settlement requirements have been met, right? Tough call -- though I'm all for waiting to settle a question, especially one with some time left on it, until it is much clearer.
By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA and MISHA DZHINDZHIKHASHVILI – 8 minutes ago
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gDNLWfQWKrQc48pITBUg9KT_6oVwD92GQLBG0
A ceasefire just means the two sides agree to stop fighting, even if it's just to allow for proper peace talks. If we're waiting for a full negotiated peace, I'd argue that's a very different question.
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