Created Mon 11th Aug 1:59am PDT by 
dragonfangxl
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When (if ever) will the Georgian army go back into South Ossetia?
Current forecast: Georgia doesnt come back in by January 1st (92% chance
2%)
2%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Georgia doesnt come back in by January 1st with a probability of 92% (down 2% in last 1 day)
Russia invaded a Georgian province by the name of South Ossetia, in retaliation for the Georgians slaughtering of the rebels. The Georgian army has attempted a retreat, and has called a ceasefire in the area. With the Russian army's bombing of their cities, it would seem that, without any foreign help, their only option is to go back in there and retake the land in the name of Georgia: something that their representative assures foreign ambassadors they will do, if Russia doesnt back off.
At least 50% of the Georgian army must come back into the area of South Ossetia for it to qualify.
Editor: Since 50% of an unknown number is hard to pin down, based on reports of approximately 2000 Georgians in South Ossetia when the Russians arrived, at least 1000 troops of the Georgian army must be within the current boundaries of South Ossetia to qualify as "gone back".
At least 50% of the Georgian army must come back into the area of South Ossetia for it to qualify.
Editor: Since 50% of an unknown number is hard to pin down, based on reports of approximately 2000 Georgians in South Ossetia when the Russians arrived, at least 1000 troops of the Georgian army must be within the current boundaries of South Ossetia to qualify as "gone back".
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Before September 1st 2008 |
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On or after Sept 1 2008 but before Jan 1 2009 |
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Georgia doesnt come back in by January 1st |
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Activity: H$22,707
Question suspends in 4 weeks
Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 3:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Before September 1st 2008: 20%, On or after Sept 1 2008 but before Jan 1 2009: 20%, Georgia doesnt come back in by January 1st: 60%
Action history:
Created Mon 11th Aug 2am PDT by dragonfangxl
dragonfangxl
Changed Description last Wednesday 8:13am PST by 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
ryanj: show details ... , if Russia doesnt back off.<. <br/> At least 50% of ... Ossetia for it to qualify.<. <br/> <b>Editor: Since 50%
Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 3:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
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score: 10
Al Jazeera 4 days ago
Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia's president, has defended his country's military assault on breakaway South Ossetia in August, saying Russian forces had invaded Georgia and its citizens were in danger. Addressing a parliamentary
score: 10
Radio Free Europe 4 days ago
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili TBILISI (Reuters) -- Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili on November 28 defended his country's military assault on breakaway South Ossetia in August, saying Russian forces had invaded and Georgian
score: 10
Radio Free Europe 6 days ago
TBILISI (Reuters) -- Russia must take immediate steps to stop South Ossetian militias 'running wild' in a mainly Georgian-populated corner of the breakaway region, a human rights watchdog has said. Human Rights Watch (HRW
score: 10
NPR 1 week ago
It's been three months since the militaries of two former Soviet countries, Russia and Georgia, clashed in the breakaway region of South Ossetia. The Georgians were quickly routed by the enormous Russian army, and three months later, Georgians are coming
score: 10
Mail & Guardian Online 1 week ago
International talks resumed on Wednesday in Geneva aimed at getting Russia and Georgia to bury the hatchet following August's five-day war in the troubled north Caucasus. A previous round of talks broke up in embarrassing failure last month when Russian
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