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Will Ian Thorpe come out and reveal he is homosexual in 2008?

Current forecast: 14% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 14% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Heavy speculation as to whether Australian former Olympic swimmer Ian Thorpe is gay or not.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
14%
No
86%
Activity: H$1,671
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Mon 11th Aug 10:22pm PDT by genjamin

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (9)

9 predictions

2 days ago
mrcorkles predicted No (H$100 at 86%)
1 week ago
intrepidblue predicted No (H$100 at 86%)
11 weeks ago
ben9 predicted No (H$100 at 86%)
13 weeks ago
kevin predicted No (H$50 at 86%)
16 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted No (H$500 at 86%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 randburg
Is hubdub really resorting to "outing" people? And both admins and superusers are allowing this?

While hubdub is definitely in the news prediction business, I thought we were doing better than a cheap tabloid. This news prediction market offers doubt...
posted 15 weeks ago
  2 coolkraft
and of what interest is whether he is or not.....his business his life
posted 15 weeks ago
  3 randburg
Why have the admins allowed this question to remain under Sport: Olympics? Have I missed something? Has this been officially classified an Olympic Sport?

How were the odds calculated at 15% that he would choose to reveal all? What other "errors" would we have to think of, to get an admin to COME OUT and void this lowlife question?

The Olympics is about RESPECT, harmony, and unity among great athletes of the world. This question fails the Olympics...
posted 15 weeks ago
  4 tisha[Admin]
I don't think this question has offensive or intolerant undertones - the sexuality of celebrities is often of media interest and many athletes have chosen to publicise their sexual preferences in the public interest.

However, I'm recategorising the question to Entertainment - Celebrities
posted 15 weeks ago
  5 randburg
"many athletes have chosen to publicise their sexual preferences in the public interest".

Of course, you are right, and they would be "fair game". That is not what is going on here. Ian Thorpe is a highly respected and celebrated Olympian who apparently does NOT choose to publicise his sexual preference.

If you consider that statistics suggest that approximately ten percent of the population is gay, and there are far more than 10,000 fine athletes at the Olympic games: would you like to create AT LEAST another thousand questions "outing" more gay Olympians? Whether they are heterosexual or homosexual, our fine Olympians have the right to compete in the games in privacy -- unless they directly choose to talk to the press.

Will it be necessary in the future for potential Olympians to decide whether or not their private lives can live up to detailed scrutiny and whether or not they are willing to undergo this scrutiny -- just to compete in the Olympics? BECAUSE, if they do well at the Olympics (which is the goal), they are going to "come under the gun" from every cheap tabloid AND NOW hubdub as well.

Olympians are mostly good squeaky clean home-grown celebrities, where the worst problems are occasional performance enhancing additives. They are not the products of Hollywood sex publicity machines...At least, not yet...
posted 15 weeks ago

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