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GOVT SHUTDOWN - Will the republicans/congress shut down the govt by or before october 25 2008?

Settled as no the govt isn't shut down

WASHINGTON — Congressional Republicans are poised to shut down the government if they are not allowed a vote on new oil drilling legislation.

"Many people aren't aware that the bans on drilling must be renewed every year, and all we have to do is allow these prohibitions to expire on October 1. In just 50 days, Americans will have the freedom to pursue their own energy resources here at home. Our letter is very straightforward: we will actively oppose any effort to extend the bans on offshore drilling and oil shale," DeMint said.

This is setting the stage for a showdown in September with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and most other Demorats who oppose this drilling.

Reid has said he intends to try to renew the bans when Congress returns in September through a continuing spending resolution -- a measure used to bypass the annual spending bills, and adopt the current spending levels until the new Congress takes its seat. But to pass his version, Reid will need a filibuster-breaking 60 votes, which could prove difficult.

In a letter from DeMint to Reid, DeMint indicates the GOP has the votes to sustain any veto of a continuing resolution that might get 60 votes.

But if Congress can't agree to a continuing resolution before Oct. 1, the government shuts down.

The republicans will get the blame if the govt gets shutdown. Techinally it will be the whole congress that shuts down the govt. The reason for "republicans/congress" in the question. Congress doesn't always act on time, hence the reason for the oct 25th date. If no agreement is worked out by or before oct 1st they might pass a 7 day "continuing spending resolution" (more than once) to keep the govt running. If its obivous their passing 7 day "continuing spending resolution's" then admin can settle this after the govt is shut down or an agreement is made. This will suspend on september 29th.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

yes the govt is shut down
10%
no the govt isn't shut down
90%
Activity: H$12,619
Settled as no the govt isn't shut down on Sun 5th Oct 1:32pm PDT

Suspend date: Mon 29th Sep 9:30am PDT Settlement date: Sun 5th Oct 1:32pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 29th Sep 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: yes the govt is shut down: 15%, no the govt isn't shut down: 85%

Action history:

Created Wed 13th Aug 9:14am PDT by dieseldog
Suspended Mon 29th Sep 9:30am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 29th Sep 9:09pm PDT by dieseldog: govt not shut down. congress let the oil ban expire.
Settlement requested Sun 5th Oct 1:21pm PDT by hope_cruor: WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush on Tuesday signed a sprawling, stopgap spending bill to keep the government running for the next 12 months...

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2008-09-30-spending-bill_N.htm?csp=34

Hello, this question has been solved with Bush's signature on 9-30-08. Cheers.
Settled as 'no the govt isn't shut down' Sun 5th Oct 1:32pm PDT by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 29th Sep 9:30am PDT Settlement date: Sun 5th Oct 1:32pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 29th Sep 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (49)

49 predictions

9 weeks ago
davidr predicted no the govt isn't shut down (H$274 at 91%)
9 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted no the govt isn't shut down (H$160 at 90%)
9 weeks ago
kiwi_dt predicted no the govt isn't shut down (H$100 at 90%)
9 weeks ago
ratel predicted no the govt isn't shut down (H$300 at 89%)
9 weeks ago
doc_honcho predicted no the govt isn't shut down (H$50 at 89%)
more

Comments (6)

One can only hope... Shut 'er down!
posted 15 weeks ago
  2 dieseldog
we can settle this. the ban was lifted so congress won't shut govt down over drilling.
posted 8 weeks ago
Lets shut it all down! Congress, Any and all branches of government, wall street. Lets start anew! Im vouching for a name change. Something like...... Bowbeforeme! We could hire a community organizer to make sure things go well.
posted 8 weeks ago
  4 dieseldog
dragon - you sound like ron paul. i think i coverted you. :O)
posted 8 weeks ago
Hi, I understand the Suspended date, but when are the winnings distributed?. For this question is it October 25 2008? Another of my bets also has passed the Suspend date yet also has not been distributed. How can I tell the distribution dates? Thanks :)
posted 8 weeks ago
@hope - It completely depends on the question.. sometimes the suspend date is the settlement date, or very close to it. Sometimes, we're waiting on something to happen (like this question) and sometimes the category editor has just completely forgotten about it. Whenever you think a question is ready to be settled, you can use the "Request Settlement" link right next to the graph. This will send an email to the category editor -- so just include a note (and a link if applicable) about why the question should be settled now.
posted 8 weeks ago

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