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Created Wed 13th Aug 12pm PDT by hopehopehooray
All questions » World » Americas » 

Which period will include the next (40th) Canadian general federal election day?

Settled as October 01st to December 31st, 2008

Oct 14, 2008
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080907.welxnharper0907/BNStory/Front/home?cid=al_gam_mostview

Background:

The next (40th) Canadian general federal election day has been set for October 19th, 2009. However, in some circumstances (such as the minority government falling on a vote of non-confidence, or a change to election date legislation), the election day could be earlier. Many pundits have presented an early general election as a likely turn of events. In the end, the choice of an election day is determined by the Crown and the dropping (issuance) of the writ.


Settlement details: Settlement as of 12:01am EST on the date defined by Elections Canada or the Parliament of Canada as "Writs Issued". This will certainly be reported on the date by major mainstream Canadian news sources (CBC/ Radio-Canada, CTV, TVA, CPAC). Settlement will also occur on any date that legislation changing the fixed date receives royal assent. The question will be void if the election day is after October 19, 2009.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 July 01st to September 30th, 2008
0%
October 01st to December 31st, 2008
98%
January 01st to March 31st, 2009
0%
April 01st to June 30th, 2009
0%
July 01st to October 18th, 2009
0%
October 19th, 2009
1%
Activity: H$31,778
Settled as October 01st to December 31st, 2008 on Sun 7th Sep 2:43pm PDT

Suspend date: Tue 1st Sep 2009 4pm PDT (38 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sun 7th Sep 2:43pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 7th Sep 6am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: July 01st to September 30th, 2008: 10%, October 01st to December 31st, 2008: 15%, January 01st to March 31st, 2009: 15%, April 01st to June 30th, 2009: 15%, July 01st to October 18th, 2009: 15%, October 19th, 2009: 30%

Action history:

Created Wed 13th Aug 12pm PDT by hopehopehooray
Settlement requested Sun 7th Sep 12:55pm PDT by canadianveggie: Election called for Oct 14.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/09/07/election-call.html
Settled as 'October 01st to December 31st, 2008' Sun 7th Sep 2:43pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Oct 14, 2008
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080907.welxnharper0907/BNStory/Front/home?cid=al_gam_mostview

Suspend date: Tue 1st Sep 2009 4pm PDT (38 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sun 7th Sep 2:43pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 7th Sep 6am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (39)

39 predictions

13 weeks ago
dr42 predicted October 01st to December 31st, 2008 (H$20 at 94%)
13 weeks ago
canadianveggie predicted October 01st to December 31st, 2008 (H$5,000 at 90%)
13 weeks ago
dr42 predicted October 01st to December 31st, 2008 (H$134 at 71%)
13 weeks ago
abysscuria predicted July 01st to September 30th, 2008 (H$50 at 6%)
13 weeks ago
curios predicted July 01st to September 30th, 2008 (H$50 at 2%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 infernalmachine[Admin]
Picture added ;-)
posted 15 weeks ago

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