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UNABOMBER - Will the court order the cabin removed?

Current forecast: No - The court will not order the cabin removed (93% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No - The court will not order the cabin removed with a probability of 93% (unchanged in last 1 day)

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,402642,00.html

Unabomber Theodore Kaczynski wrote a letter to a federal appeals court complaining about a museum exhibit of the tiny cabin where he plotted an 18-year bombing spree.

Kaczynski said in the three-page, handwritten letter to the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco that he learned his cabin was at the Newseum from a June 19 newspaper ad in the Washington Post.

"Since the advertisement states that the cabin is 'FROM FBI VAULT,' it is clear that the government is responsible for the public exhibition of the cabin. This has obvious relevance to the victims' objection to publicity connected with the Unabom case," he wrote in the letter, dated July 15 and stamped as received by the court on July 28.


"I don't think I need to say anything further," he added. "The Court can draw its own conclusions."

This will suspend December 30th 2008. If the cabin is still on display in the "Newseum" on Jan 1st 2009 will settle as no. If removed before Jan 1st 2009 it will settle as yes. Removed as no longer on display to the public. It can still be in the building just not on display to the public. The reason for no longer being on display has to be court ordered. If the cabin is removed for any reason other than court ordered it counts as other not listed. See comments in comment section.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

No - The court will not order the cabin removed
93%
Yes - The court will order the cabin removed
5%
Other (Not court ordered)
1%
Activity: H$11,276
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 7:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: No - The court will not order the cabin removed: 60%, Yes - The court will order the cabin removed: 35%, Other (Not court ordered): 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 13th Aug 7:06pm PDT by dieseldog
Suspended Tue 19th Aug 11:39pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Suspended pending further edits by category editor.
Unsuspended Wed 20th Aug 10:12pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Wrong action by cat-ed (me) fixed. Market can now go on

Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 7:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (27)

27 predictions

1 week ago
deanthoreau predicted Other (Not court ordered) (H$50 at 2%)
1 week ago
deanthoreau predicted Other (Not court ordered) (H$5 at 1%)
1 week ago
sman1955 predicted No - The court will not order the cabin removed (H$40 at 93%)
5 weeks ago
capecodviking predicted Other (Not court ordered) (H$1 at 2%)
7 weeks ago
fleur325 predicted No - The court will not order the cabin removed (H$20 at 92%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 dieseldog
people can get carried away at times nic-picing questions to death, especially longer term markets. i understand it to a degree...sometimes it way overboard in my opinon. i don't like long term markets for that reason, and things change from the time the question was made. i made 2 long term questions tonight and hope they don't cause any trouble. your saying why make them if ya don't like them? well i haven't read any news that i could make a short term question, and i'm gonna try to create more questions. i hope to be able to make some shorter questions as i come across them. i usually run a question by an amin before posting them. well i didn't tonight so i hope their ok. goodluck and have a nice day.
posted 15 weeks ago
  2 randburg
Interesting comments friend dieseldog! I noticed a couple of weeks ago that most questions were long term...unless you were interested in MLB or the Olympics. Not much has changed since, and we are about to swap the Olympics for the Elections. There are even 50 questions -- one by one, ho hum -- about which party is going to win each state. I hope it will sound more exciting later.

I'm not really a sports fan, but thank goodness football season is nearly back. And then there was the mouse that roared: Will the PATRIOTS cost nice hubdubbers MILLIONS of hubdub dollars again this year?
posted 15 weeks ago
I like your question. Though I do beleive that, the federal government might have actually sold all that crap. Since FBI siezed property is auctioned and the money goes in to the general US treasury. This includes vehicles, real estate, diamonds, all sorts of fun stuff.
posted 1 week ago

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