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What will the IOC do about China's possibly underage gymnasts?

Voided

Story was out prior to question's creation. "IOC says 'age manipulation' a serious concern"

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/mini/CTVNews/20080815/oly_gymnasts_080815/20080815?s_name=beijing2008&no_ads=

Background:

BEIJING – For a long time, elements of the Chinese government itself thought women’s gymnast He Kexin was born Jan. 1, 1994, which would make her 14 and too young to compete in these Summer Olympics.

Whether it was repeated mentions in the government-controlled media – including a new one uncovered Friday by the Associated Press – or on official gymnastic meet registration forms and websites, He was “this little girl” and a “new star.”

As recently as December 2007, in provincial gymnastics meets and news reports that covered it, she was a 13-year-old prodigy, too young for the 16-year-old Olympic age limit for gymnastics.

Then, suddenly, she wasn’t.

Earlier this year China produced her passport that claimed she was born Jan. 1, 1992, making her old enough to perform a brilliant uneven bar routine and push China to the women’s all around gold medal.
________

Critics, fans and athletes are calling for a response from an apparent tentative IOC - will they get one and if so, what will it be?

http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/beijing/gymnastics/news?slug=dw-gymnastsage081408&prov=yhoo&type=lgns


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

No response from the IOC = no word, no action, nothing, nada (I caaaaan't heeeeeere you)
Statement from IOC as to why this isn't an issue = something like, "we have reviewed the documents provided by China's governemnt and China's Olympic Team. They meet all necessary requirements. Furthermore China promises they're telling the truth, bla, bla, bla"
Statement from IOC acknowledging issue but no more = Something like, "We acknowledge the gymnastic communities concern for this issue and appreciate the importance of ensuring fair play, we assure you we hold ourselves to a high standard, bla, bla, bla"
Promise of investigation from the IOC = We'll look into it but nothing more before market suspension.
Revokation or redistribution of medals = pretty obvious
Condemnation from the IOC = again, pretty clear. This is condemnation associated with China's guilt, not "we would condemn this if this were true". Also, this only applies if none of the other penalty options occur also.
Any other outcome = anything not listed here

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

No response from the IOC
10%
Statement from IOC as to why this isn't an issue
10%
Statement from IOC acknowledging issue but no more
20%
Promise of investigation from the IOC
20%
Condemnation from the IOC
20%
Revokation or redistribution of medals
10%
Any other outcome
10%
Voided Fri 15th Aug 5:47pm PDT

Suspend date: Sat 30th Aug 12:59am PDT

Initial likelihoods: No response from the IOC: 10%, Statement from IOC as to why this isn't an issue: 10%, Statement from IOC acknowledging issue but no more: 20%, Promise of investigation from the IOC: 20%, Condemnation from the IOC: 20%, Revokation or redistribution of medals: 10%, Any other outcome: 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 15th Aug 10:49am PDT by swilson[Power User]
Suspended Fri 15th Aug 12:11pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Suspended pending review of existing (recent) IOC statement on this issue.
Voided Fri 15th Aug 5:47pm PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]: Story was out prior to question's creation. "IOC says 'age manipulation' a serious concern"

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/mini/CTVNews/20080815/oly_gymnasts_080815/20080815?s_name=beijing2008&no_ads=

Suspend date: Sat 30th Aug 12:59am PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (1)

1 prediction

13 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted No response from the IOC (H$100 at 11%)

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