How much will Twilight make its opening weekend?

interesting... I never caught on the HP craze and thought the movies were just OK... that Twilight trailer looks awesome!

This question is really only asking how much Twilight will make this fall. The Harry Potter part is really just as a comparison and has no bearing on the actual settlement of the question. Every article/discussion of Twilight compares its success to that of Harry Potter, so I wanted to do the same in the question. But, in essence this question is only asking, "How much will Twilight make its opening weekend?"

I just finished reading all 4 books. This is an amazing series. If the movies do the author justice, then the vampires will really win this match up. It all depends on how the advertisers handle their pimping tasks. Meyers wrote a super saga here.

Even the music went to #1....And the film isn't even going to be released until Nov. 21st.
Check it out here... http://news.yahoo.com/s/eonline/20081112/en_music_eo/68433;_ylt=AoEM87aH7I38TwgFnIwdneaVEhkF

@buckeyetom - I am SOOO excited to see this movie. I'm pulling my husband out of work and putting the toddler in daycare so we can go see it opening day -- then I'm going to see it again with my mom the next weekend. Who knows, maybe I'll go again the week after that :) The buzz so far has all been very positive, and Stephanie Meyer was pretty involved with the movie process so it should be true to the books. Still, there's nowhere near the audience of the Harry Potter books.. I think a 50mil weekend would be considered very successful (and hopefully enough to secure the sequels get made).

@Jenniandboys
If this series stays a hit and the 4th book is made into a movie, the special effects of the you-know-whats, will be awesome. Don't want to mention the critters here and spoil it for anyone. C'mon 4th book! C'mon 4th book... (I'm betting on more than 50 mil. Over 67.5) Enjoy your day(s) at Twilight.

@buckeye - gggaaahhh! I can't stand it. One more week until the first one comes out and now I'm starting to crave the 4th one! Aaacccckkkkk...

Your reading those vampire books? Dont you think they are a little... childish?

Yo dr..XL...If you study creative writing you know how hard it is to invoke a plot, an attraction and a conflict without using words more harsh than "Pissed off" and "Crap." This author did a great job. To take a book-to-movie- like this is great. Most people appreciate the style unless they are not in the creative field. Try reading it from a perspective of someone who is trying to bridge the gap between generations, without bringing in too much hard core sex and/or violence. It is what it is. Have a Happy Turkey Day!

I dont really care how "Hard" it was. I wont read a book simply because you think it is so "hard" for them to write. There are thousands of books out there, and each one of them had a lot of effort put into them. If you want to try and play the sympathy card try reading one of those.

How about: its a great story, with engaging characters and an exciting plot line.

That would be a better argument than buckey. Reading a book because he thinks it must have been hard for the writer to write.

Its also reasonable to appreciate the skillcraft that went into writing a book. People have different reasons for reading things. For instance, I will likely not watch many of the probably Oscar contenders because I just want an entertaining story. They seem to focus more on the actors skill (and tend to be inordinately depressing).. there are many ways to appreciate both movies and books.

if they got naked women in them i'll read the book or watch the movie. :O)

"skillcraft"? I think youve been reading to many childrens books jennie :)

jenni....can I assume by your comments your are a fan?

That would be a safe assumption.. I've just re-read almost all of the first book today! Now have plans to see it 3 times in the first week :)

wow, I haven't seen 3 movies in a movie theater in umm 2 years.....

Well I just bought this entire series of books, and since I was busy finishing a book, I gave the first one in this series to a friend and she read the entire book in one sitting, said she had trouble at work today because she was jonesing for the second book. I am now intrigued to read this more than before, and decided I will do before this movie is released so I can be part of that circus to.

@Nadine
LOL - me either.

Not quite sure what all the buzz is about, but if it brings increased readership in any way, then it is valuable.
I am not familiar with the author, subject or proposed movie, but I do trust Jenni's judgment. And her excitement feels contagious.

Hrm. As of this moment, the Derby game on boxofficemojo.com is predicting $52.7m, while HSX implies $61.24m (171.48/2.8). I could see it going high, but I think the <$45m bets are a bit gloomy here.

They may be reacting to some negative reviews which came out today: http://gawker.com/5093291/ha-ha-the-twilight-movie-sucks

Although its not changing my prediction or plans for the weekend.

@destry Well what do you think? Childish or a cross between two groups?

EW is predicting a 69 million open for Twilight today -- pretty impressive for a film with only a 37 million budget! New Moon (book #2) here we come!
http://hollywoodinsider.ew.com/2008/11/boprev-twilight.html

@jenniandboys
This question is closing shortly. I just wanted to thank you for putting it out there. It received a lot of betting action and opened up a venue for tons of people to voice their opinions about books and writing. Well done Jenni. Why don't you take dragonfangxl along with you to the movie? And I would also like to know what Destry thinks of this series after he is done reading a book or two.

I will say that I have started this book just the other night, I should be done with book one in a few hours assuming there isn't alot of flags coming through.
I am immediately impressed with how well written this book is. The auther is obviously very skilled and I love how she is developing the characters with small descriptions throughout the book. Nothing is better than a well written novel. I am planning on seeing the movie on Saturday, so you can add my $10 and the $10 I am going to spend on person I take.

My daughter went to see the Friday late afternoon showing of "Twilight". She overheard people on line who were seeing it for the third time!

@buckeyetom - thanks, I enjoyed it too. Its fun to get to share something you care about with others. I've now gotten 7 other people (that I know of) to read it. :) Just got back from the movie, it was great, although I do think the best part was listening to all the teenagers giggle.

Hi, Dr -
I just read some of your postings, and I have some thoughts for you...

First, I have read all 4 books twice, and I very rarely reread a book, chiefly because there are so many other stories out there to read. I think Stephenie Meyer does an amazing job of characterization, especially considering the fact that Edward is a vampire, and traditionally (for obvious reasons), it is hard for the reader to both identify with, let alone like, a vampire. All of the characters (be they human, vampire, or other) really draw the reader in. As a reader, you find that you truly feel as if you KNOW these characters rather than merely read about them. I think this is why I chose to read the saga again. I simply was not ready to say goodbye to them.

Second, I am an 8th grade LA teacher, and these books are full of irony, which seems to be a huge draw. The author depicts vampires in a way that has never been done in the past (partly because she says she had never read vampire stories). In a large way, her major vampire characters are more human than many humans we all know. Further, as a teacher, I can honestly say that I have never seen a book (or set of books), including Harry Potter, that has bridged the generation gap in such a huge way. Not only are parents and children reading this book, but many adults without children are reading it as well. Quite simply, they cannot put it down. I have seen flight attendants as well as nurses reluctant to put it down to do their jobs. More than half of the teachers (not just LA teachers)in my entire district have read the book, and yesterday we all went out to see the movie and have dinner to discuss. Moreover, I have both boy and girl students reading it, which rarely happens.

Third, even if one believes the story is "childish", one question comes to mind: Aren't some of the best stories we've ever encountered written for children? Stories that come to mind are Wizard of Oz, Charlotte's Web, Where the Red Fern Grows, Peter Pan, Black Beauty, Little Women, and Bambi; the list could go on for pages.

Finally, I will admit that the school librarian had to do some convincing to get me to read the first book. I was reluctant for two reasons: it didn't seem like my type of book, and quite honesly, it just seemed a bit ridiculous. I will also admit that this saga does not fit into the catagory of great literature. It is not Dreiser's American Trajedy, nor is it Shakespeare. It is, however, a very well-written and engaging saga that apppeals to a wide variety of readers in that it draws its reader into a story in which we wish we could be a part. The reader does not want the saga to end. Readers don't want to say goodbye to Edward or Bella or any of the others who have seamlessly become part of their own families... and, when it comes down to it, isn't that what makes truly a story great?

@caslanbert - OH! well said!

@caslanbert
Welcome to Hubdub. Your well written comment is appreciated by almost all. The LA schools are lucky to have you. It makes teaching slightly easier when the students are drawn to a book rather than a teacher trying to force them to read something they don't care for.

$35.7 Million for Friday.

:) Thanks Jenn and Buck! I'm sorry, Buck, I forgot that LA (Lnguage Arts) is an abbreviation only most teachers would recognize. I actually teach for a county in northern Kentucky. I agree in regards to having students drawn to a book. As it is a rarity, it is all the more welcome when it occurs, and is yet another reason to read the saga. We were lucky in that the administration in our school recoginized this fact, and allowed us to take our students on a field trip to see the movie yesterday morning. Also a rarity - I have some students who had not yet read the book, and now instead of feeling no need to read it after seeing the movie, they actually are going to get and read the book. Amazing and wonderful...

Wow, Buck - and that happened on a day when most kids were at school, so you can really only count friday night. Let's see, if that pattern continues, we can figure that more kids will be seeing the movie on saturday and Sunday, so it is looking like this could easily match (or beat) Harry Potter's 90 million in its first weekend...

Friday's box office returns are in, and we can report that Twilight earned a huge $35.7 million on its opening day. That's the 14th best first-day gross of all time. With Quantum of Solace and Bolt far behind, the film adaptation of Stephenie Meyer's vampire-romance novel is guaranteed a big weekend win, in excess of $70 mil. Source: http://hollywoodinsider.ew.com/2008/11/twilight-friday.html?xid=rss-hollywoodinsider-'Twilight'%20grosses%20$35.7%20mil%20on%20Friday

Good news! Maybe some of those who doubted the book will pick it up and read it now?

Well I hope anyone that sees the movie isn't turned off to the books. The movie was a horrible attempt at portraying the story in the book. The character development which Stephanie Meyer did such an outstanding job on in the book, was no where to be found on the big screen. The book which appealed to me even though I hate vampire stories, was appealing because it did an amazing job with characters, relationships, subtle plot developments, the movie was horrible. I think everyone who read the book should go to the movie theater, and instead of giving your $10 for a ticket, buy a homeless guy lunch. You will have a much better feeling when it is all over.

Actually, Des, I disagree (at least as far as my students are concerned). Most of my students who hadn't read the book were intrigued by the movie, and frustrated by questions the movie evoked but didn't adequately answer (such as why Edward's eyes REALLY changed color, among others). Much to my delight, these questions are motivating these kids to go and read the book in order to get answers.

@caslanbert, That was a well written comment but i have to add one thing, "Third, even if one believes the story is "childish", one question comes to mind: Aren't some of the best stories we've ever encountered written for children? Stories that come to mind are Wizard of Oz, Charlotte's Web, Where the Red Fern Grows, Peter Pan, Black Beauty, Little Women, and Bambi; the list could go on for pages. " -Those storys were well written, but they were mostly for children. Peter pan, for instance, despite being a good story for children is still to childish for most adults to get into it. Also, i dont think that a tragedy such as Where the red fern grows was really meant for children.

I am glad to hear that. I think it is fun that when I go to bookstore to buy the books they are in childrens area, when I go to the movie theater to see the movie, it is rated PG 13.
I think anyone that picks up the first book and gets 50 pages into it, won't be able to put it down. I came home and re-read book one, just so I could get the images from movie out of my head.

@Dragon

I beg to differ. Where the Red Fern Grows WAS actually geared toward the adolescent reader. I have taught Where the Red Fern Grows in grades as low as grade 5. My best friend's daughter was required to read the book for summer reading in grade 4. Further, Peter Pan, written by J.M. Barrie is quite a lengthy book, also geared toward the adolescent reader. If, however, the story appealed only to children, I seriously doubt that so much time and effort would have been put into producing the play (let alone so many performances), for which most people pay $60.00 + to view. That, combined with the fact that I know very few adults who cannot relate the story of Peter Pan, tells me that it is a story that has bridged the gap from children to adults.

Let me leave you with a final suggestion: Before you comment on how childish a book is or mock others for reading any book, try reading the book first. Perhaps you'll surprise yourself and you will find an unexpected pleasure.

cha-ching!

US Box Office Chart:
http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2008-11-21&p=.htm

The vampire romance takes in $70.5 million domestically for a strong November opening weekend.

By Richard Verrier
Los Angeles Times

A wildly popular vampire love story bit into the box office with a vengeance, helping to deliver a banner weekend for the industry as Hollywood brushed off one of the worst weeks ever on Wall Street. " Twilight," the film that drew scores of fans of Stephenie Meyer's vampire book series, delivered on the advance hype, generating $70.5 million in domestic box office receipts during its opening weekend, marking the fourth best November opening weekend of all time. That's an extraordinary result for an independently produced film that cost just $37 million to make and was passed over by Paramount's MTV Films.

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/la-fi-boxoffice24-2008nov24,0,4785421.story

BTW, before I start getting 20 settlement requests on this, I'll reiterate what I put in the settlement details:
Although the weekend estimates indicate a 70+ million dollar opening, we will wait for the actual numbers to be released on Monday evening. Check boxofficemojo and wait for the bar to say 'weekend actuals' as opposed to 'weekend estimates'.