Created Fri 15th Aug 6:07pm PDT by
vadchen
All questions » World » Europe » 
Will NATO start the process of granting membership to Georgia in 2008?
Current forecast: 8% chance
1%
1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 8% likely to happen (down 1% in last 1 day)
During last NATO summit (April 2008) Germany and France rejected US proposal to grant Membership Action Plans to Georgia and Ukraine. In response to Russia's military strikes against Georgia US presidential nominee John McCain said that this rejection, "might have been viewed as a green light by Russia for its attacks on Georgia" and urged Alliance members to reconsider the decision. The next NATO meeting will be held in December 2008 and this question will likely rise once again.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1832988,00.html?imw=Y
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iApDvNIgETnddU6K53XyVU4PBP4A
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3567787,00.html
ED: Question edited to include any NATO meeting before the end of the year, not just December.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1832988,00.html?imw=Y
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iApDvNIgETnddU6K53XyVU4PBP4A
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3567787,00.html
ED: Question edited to include any NATO meeting before the end of the year, not just December.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Activity: H$77,860
Question suspends in 3 weeks
Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%
Action history:
Created Fri 15th Aug 6:07pm PDT by
vadchen
Clarified Fri 15th Aug 8:27pm PDT by
infernalmachine
: "Start the process of granting membership" means "grant a Membership Action Plan" to Georgia.
Suspended Tue 26th Aug 4:31pm PDT by
infernalmachine
: Based on recent developments regarding NATO, Georgia and Russia there is an emergency meeting of NATO in September. It is possible that the required MAP(s) might be granted then. This question only refers to the December meeting.
Please "vote" in the comments below whether or not you think that the date in this question should be changed from "in December 2008" to "in 2008", which would allow a Yes settlement should a MAP be granted to Georgia before December.
Please "vote" in the comments below whether or not you think that the date in this question should be changed from "in December 2008" to "in 2008", which would allow a Yes settlement should a MAP be granted to Georgia before December.
Unsuspended Thu 28th Aug 12:52am PDT by
infernalmachine
: Question re-opened. Original "in December 2008" has been changed to "in 2008" to include any NATO meetings that may occur before the scheduled December one.
Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
more info...
Predictions (143)
143 predictions
Comments (22)
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This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
Radio Free Europe 17 hours ago
NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer during a September visit to Tbilisi It's now official: Georgia and Ukraine will not be granted Membership Action Plans (MAPs) at a meeting of
score: 10
Washington Post 1 day ago
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The United States will urge NATO on Tuesday to encourage Georgia and Ukraine to join the military alliance after European nations derailed President George W. Bush's bid to put them on the track to membership
score: 10
Telegraph 1 day ago
With even the United States poised to drop its call for Georgia to be given a Nato Membership Action Plan (MAP), the Kremlin is likely to view the two-day summit beginning on Tuesday in Brussels as vindication of its military action in
score: 10
Morningstar.com 1 day ago
said Monday too little progress had been made to even start the ball rolling on the bids by Georgia and Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, while suggesting Russia should also be consulted on the matter. NATO foreign ministers are
score: 10
Radio Free Europe 1 day ago
NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer during a September visit to Tbilisi It's now official: Georgia and Ukraine will not be granted Membership Action Plans (MAPs) at a meeting of




[This was in the first linked reference in the background.]
'Course, even if my sense of what it means is accurate, it needs to be confirmed and endorsed by a category editor.
It's in the background and in the articles. If they grant a Membership Action Plan to Georgia, that starts the process for Georgia to gain membership in NATO (see first article - the Time one).
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1832988,00.html?imw=Y
This question is, as they say in poker, the nuts as concerns the issue of Georgia and Russia!
I assume "in December 2008" means exactly what it says...
Thanks for infernalmachine and newswrangler.
Eric, next summit will take place in Brussels on December 8, however I don't know when it will end, so I set suspend date as 31/12.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24197441-23109,00.html
However we should wait for Russia's response. I hope they won't nuke Georgia on December 7 :)
I'm going to briefly suspend this question. I'd like to hear any feedback on whether I (we) should change "in December 2008" to "in 2008", or whether we should leave the question as-is, which might mean a MAP is granted in September, but this question settles as No (which is a bit counter-intuitive). If the date is changed, I will be open to voiding any individual wagers of people who would have wagered differently (but only for a limited time).
Please let me know here in the comments.
emergency meetings...it would certainly stay with the spirit of the market, as vadchen has stated.
(If this change bothers you and you want your previous wager(s) voided, just email me at patrick@hubdub.com or "flag for review" (under the bar graph) by the end of August)
Interesting question.. I am not so familiar with all the rules.. what is the "spitzer rule"? anyone?
"Unless specified otherwise, a question asking when a public figure will resign will be settled on the date the figure announces their intention to resign rather than the date the resignation becomes effective (the Spitzer clause)."
Maybe someone else can give you the more interesting story behind it!
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