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Will NATO start the process of granting membership to Georgia in 2008?

Current forecast: 8% chance 1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 8% likely to happen (down 1% in last 1 day)

During last NATO summit (April 2008) Germany and France rejected US proposal to grant Membership Action Plans to Georgia and Ukraine. In response to Russia's military strikes against Georgia US presidential nominee John McCain said that this rejection, "might have been viewed as a green light by Russia for its attacks on Georgia" and urged Alliance members to reconsider the decision. The next NATO meeting will be held in December 2008 and this question will likely rise once again.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1832988,00.html?imw=Y
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iApDvNIgETnddU6K53XyVU4PBP4A
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3567787,00.html

ED: Question edited to include any NATO meeting before the end of the year, not just December.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
8%
No
92%
Activity: H$77,860
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Fri 15th Aug 6:07pm PDT by vadchen
Clarified Fri 15th Aug 8:27pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: "Start the process of granting membership" means "grant a Membership Action Plan" to Georgia.
Suspended Tue 26th Aug 4:31pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Based on recent developments regarding NATO, Georgia and Russia there is an emergency meeting of NATO in September. It is possible that the required MAP(s) might be granted then. This question only refers to the December meeting.

Please "vote" in the comments below whether or not you think that the date in this question should be changed from "in December 2008" to "in 2008", which would allow a Yes settlement should a MAP be granted to Georgia before December.
Unsuspended Thu 28th Aug 12:52am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Question re-opened. Original "in December 2008" has been changed to "in 2008" to include any NATO meetings that may occur before the scheduled December one.

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (143)

143 predictions

3 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted Yes (H$100 at 8%)
3 weeks ago
jfisher predicted No (H$100 at 92%)
3 weeks ago
supi predicted Yes (H$20 at 8%)
3 weeks ago
gman77 predicted No (H$50 at 92%)
3 weeks ago
ejzygmont predicted Yes (H$20 at 8%)
more

Comments (22)

  1 dieseldog
can we get some clarifaction on what "starting the process" means? this is a spitzer waiting to happen.
posted 15 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
@diesel - The "spitzer" rule applies only to resignations and the settlement of those. It is best that we don't use the spitzer word everytime I question might need clarified. You know what they say about the little boy who cried "wolf".
posted 15 weeks ago
  3 Erik
I agree with diesl. Please define the qualifier "start the process."
posted 15 weeks ago
To my read, "starting the process of granting membership" means that Georgia (along with Ukraine) would be granted "Membership Action Plans", the first step toward joining the Alliance.

[This was in the first linked reference in the background.]

'Course, even if my sense of what it means is accurate, it needs to be confirmed and endorsed by a category editor.
posted 15 weeks ago
newswrangler is correct.

It's in the background and in the articles. If they grant a Membership Action Plan to Georgia, that starts the process for Georgia to gain membership in NATO (see first article - the Time one).
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1832988,00.html?imw=Y
posted 15 weeks ago
This is such a good question -- from a member who joined today ((welcome vadchen ;-))
This question is, as they say in poker, the nuts as concerns the issue of Georgia and Russia!
posted 15 weeks ago
  7 dieseldog
thanks to NW and admin for clarifying.
posted 15 weeks ago
  8 Erik
Thanks for the clarification.
I assume "in December 2008" means exactly what it says...
posted 15 weeks ago
  9 vadchen
Sorry for not being specific, I'll try better next time :)
Thanks for infernalmachine and newswrangler.
Eric, next summit will take place in Brussels on December 8, however I don't know when it will end, so I set suspend date as 31/12.
posted 15 weeks ago
  10 vadchen
Look who's talking now! Seems that Georgia's chances are rising.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24197441-23109,00.html

However we should wait for Russia's response. I hope they won't nuke Georgia on December 7 :)
posted 15 weeks ago
  11 dieseldog
NATO is turning into another UN. what did NATO do to get russia out of georgia? they'll never agree to add georgia for fear of hurting russia's feelings. wish this wasn't so long till settlement time.
posted 14 weeks ago
@Erik. Good point. Recent events mean that there is an emergency NATO meeting now scheduled for early September. It is possible that one or both of Ukraine and Georgia are offered MAPs at that time. As the question is written, this would not allow for a Yes settlement, either in September (because it wasn't "in December 2008") or in December (because it was already granted).

I'm going to briefly suspend this question. I'd like to hear any feedback on whether I (we) should change "in December 2008" to "in 2008", or whether we should leave the question as-is, which might mean a MAP is granted in September, but this question settles as No (which is a bit counter-intuitive). If the date is changed, I will be open to voiding any individual wagers of people who would have wagered differently (but only for a limited time).

Please let me know here in the comments.
posted 14 weeks ago
I vote for changing to "in 2008"
posted 14 weeks ago
  14 dieseldog
i'm open to changing it prior to the creator's approval. imho vadchen should voice his/her opinon before deciding.
posted 13 weeks ago
I have just emailed vadchen to request their opinion on this. Thanks for the 2 votes. Anyone else?
posted 13 weeks ago
  16 vadchen
I think should be changed to "in 2008", since I put December there only as reference no "next NATO summit". Which now appears to be in September. The meaning of the question is "will Georgia join NATO in current political situation", and not "will Georgia join NATO on certain date".
posted 13 weeks ago
  17 Erik
I believe it should be changed to include any
emergency meetings...it would certainly stay with the spirit of the market, as vadchen has stated.
posted 13 weeks ago
I vote to change to "in 2008" for the same reasons as prior comments.
posted 13 weeks ago
Great. Sounds pretty unanimous. So I'll change to "in 2008" and re-open the question.

(If this change bothers you and you want your previous wager(s) voided, just email me at patrick@hubdub.com or "flag for review" (under the bar graph) by the end of August)
posted 13 weeks ago
Just so you know, I may have been a little hasty in suggesting there will be an emergency meeting of NATO in September. The emergency meeting that is scheduled is only of the EU. So at the moment the next NATO meeting is still in December. But who knows? At least we're prepared for all possibilities. ;-)
posted 13 weeks ago
  21 bigken1
Hi all,

Interesting question.. I am not so familiar with all the rules.. what is the "spitzer rule"? anyone?
posted 11 weeks ago
  22 tisha[Admin]
The boring answer is it's the last point under 2.3.1 in the rules http://www.hubdub.com/public/goodquestion

"Unless specified otherwise, a question asking when a public figure will resign will be settled on the date the figure announces their intention to resign rather than the date the resignation becomes effective (the Spitzer clause)."

Maybe someone else can give you the more interesting story behind it!
posted 11 weeks ago

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