Created Fri 15th Aug 7:12pm PDT by theonecalledmichael

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What will Hubdub's Value be on January 1, 2009 on Myspace's App "Own your friends?"

The problem with the market is that we have no clear time at which to settle the market. Because the application in question will be dynamic based on what time of day a user looks at it, it will be hard to settle. On January 1st I may look at the figures and find them and settle the market, but 6 hours later those values may have changed. Because it's hard to set a time for a Cat-Ed to look at the figures at a certain exact time so far in the future, I'd recommend posting this closer to it's settlement date and in the Hubdub sub-category in Technology.

Settlement details: As reported on the "Own Your Friends" App on Myspace.com

What will Hubdub's Value be on January 1, 2009 on Myspace's App "Own your friends?"

    Value<$1000

    More Than $1000 to $2000

    More Than $2000 to $5000

    More than $5000 to $10,000

    More Than $10,000 to $50,000

    More Than $50,000 to $100,000

    More than $100,000 to $1,000,000

    More than $1,000,000

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Forecast history, %

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Voided

	Value<$1000	3%
	More Than $1000 to $2000	7%
	More Than $2000 to $5000	10%
	More than $5000 to $10,000	10%
	More Than $10,000 to $50,000	25%
	More Than $50,000 to $100,000	25%
	More than $100,000 to $1,000,000	10%
	More than $1,000,000	10%

Voided Sat 16th Aug 5:27pm PDT

Suspend date: Mon 29th Dec 8:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Value<$1000: 3%, More Than $1000 to $2000: 7%, More Than $2000 to $5000: 10%, More than $5000 to $10,000: 10%, More Than $10,000 to $50,000: 25%, More Than $50,000 to $100,000: 25%, More than $100,000 to $1,000,000: 10%, More than $1,000,000: 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 15th Aug 7:12pm PDT by theonecalledmichael

Voided Sat 16th Aug 5:27pm PDT by ryanj: The problem with the market is that we have no clear time at which to settle the market. Because the application in question will be dynamic based on what time of day a user looks at it, it will be hard to settle. On January 1st I may look at the figures and find them and settle the market, but 6 hours later those values may have changed. Because it's hard to set a time for a Cat-Ed to look at the figures at a certain exact time so far in the future, I'd recommend posting this closer to it's settlement date and in the Hubdub sub-category in Technology.

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Suspend date: Mon 29th Dec 8:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
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Predictions (8)

8 predictions

15 weeks ago

cognos predicted More than $5000 to $10,000 (H$300 at 8%)

15 weeks ago

cognos predicted More Than $10,000 to $50,000 (H$700 at 34%)

15 weeks ago

cognos predicted More Than $50,000 to $100,000 (H$600 at 22%)

15 weeks ago

cognos predicted More than $100,000 to $1,000,000 (H$400 at 11%)

15 weeks ago

cognos predicted More than $1,000,000 (H$300 at 12%)

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15 weeks ago

cognos predicted More than $5000 to $10,000 (H$300 at 8%)

15 weeks ago

cognos predicted More Than $10,000 to $50,000 (H$700 at 34%)

15 weeks ago

cognos predicted More Than $50,000 to $100,000 (H$600 at 22%)

15 weeks ago

cognos predicted More than $100,000 to $1,000,000 (H$400 at 11%)

15 weeks ago

cognos predicted More than $1,000,000 (H$300 at 12%)

15 weeks ago

chefspedlly predicted More Than $10,000 to $50,000 (H$1,000 at 31%)

15 weeks ago

rogi predicted More than $100,000 to $1,000,000 (H$50 at 10%)

15 weeks ago

valornhonor predicted More than $1,000,000 (H$111 at 11%)

Showing recent public predictions only

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Comments (2)

  1 fingers_of_fury

what's it worth now?

posted 15 weeks ago

  2 fingers_of_fury

Hey, Michael, I would love to wager on this but how do I track it?
I searched Myspace for Hubdub and Own your friends but I couldn't find it.

posted 15 weeks ago

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