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Created Fri 15th Aug 10:33pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

Texas county results Red vs. Blue - US Presidential vote this November?

Settled as 216 or more counties end up Red

28 Blue Counties.
254 Total Counties.

Background:

Texas is a big 'ole state, lot's of the rural parts are solidly red (Republican leaning), and several of the urban and Southern counties are solidly blue (Democratic leaning).

Market is looking to predict how many of Texas' 254 counties will end up with a greater popular vote for the Republicans (Red) than any other party?

Initial starting odds based on a thorough article in the August issue of Texas Monthly magazine pages 130-133.
Texas Monthly article


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Less than 150 counties end up Red
5%
Between 151 and 165 counties end up Red
21%
Between 166 and 201 counties end up Red
35%
Between 202 and 215 counties end up Red
23%
216 or more counties end up Red
16%
Activity: H$8,138
Settled as 216 or more counties end up Red on Sat 8th Nov 8:29am PST

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sat 8th Nov 8:29am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Less than 150 counties end up Red: 7%, Between 151 and 165 counties end up Red: 25%, Between 166 and 201 counties end up Red: 35%, Between 202 and 215 counties end up Red: 25%, 216 or more counties end up Red: 8%

Action history:

Created Fri 15th Aug 10:33pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Suspended Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as '216 or more counties end up Red' Sat 8th Nov 8:29am PST by destry[Admin]: 28 Blue Counties.
254 Total Counties.

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sat 8th Nov 8:29am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (49)

49 predictions

8 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted Between 202 and 215 counties end up Red (H$10 at 33%)
9 weeks ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted Between 151 and 165 counties end up Red (H$20 at 13%)
12 weeks ago
melmel07 predicted Between 166 and 201 counties end up Red (H$100 at 36%)
13 weeks ago
sdchargers[Power User] predicted Between 202 and 215 counties end up Red (H$100 at 21%)

Comments (5)

  1 newswrangler[Power User]
This may (or may not) be the article referred to in Texas Monthly.
(If it is, it probably ought be included within the market background)

State of Play
What the 2008 presidential race means for Texas.

<http://www.texasmonthly.com/2008-08-01/feature4.php>
posted 13 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
That appears to be the article. I just read it as well.
posted 13 weeks ago
  3 valornhonor[Power User]
Yes, that is the article and graphic, thank you.
posted 13 weeks ago
  4 valornhonor[Power User]
... and when I say "graphic" I'm referring to the link, not the enthusiastic picture that was added to my question by the obvious Texan who was apparently ambushed while in the midst of getting dressed... lest anyone think I'm not living up to my username...
posted 13 weeks ago
  5 smidge76
Laughing at valor's comment above...don't worry, the photo didn't make me question your honor. By the way, an interesting question. Where is John King and his magic wall when you need him?
posted 13 weeks ago

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