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At what strength will Fay make landfall in Florida?
Fay made landfall as a tropical storm
Background:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
SFMR...DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FAY
DID NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...BEFORE COMING ASHORE. A
DROPSONDE REPORTED A SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT...AND THERE WERE
BELIEVABLE 49 KT WINDS FROM THE SFMR. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OBSERVED WAS 61 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS
SET AT 50 KT. THERE WERE A FEW SFMR WINDS ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER THAT
MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN CORRECT...BUT IN ANY EVENT FAY DIDN'T
MAKE IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT
CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF THE CENTER DOES EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS FORECAST...FAY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO A CONSENSUS
HAS BEEN BUILDING ON FAY BEING TRAPPED BENEATH A MIGRATORY
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERLIES...WITH EVEN THE GFDL
BEGINNING TO BACK OFF ON A PROLONGED NORTHWARD MOTION. THE
GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO
THE WEST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. This will settle based on the first landfall of Fay in Florida. If storms makes landfall as category 2, then goes back out to gulf and makes landfall again as a category 1. This market will settle based on first landfall strength, as with all other storm markets, this storm hitting the Florida Keys will NOT count as landfall.
Settled
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Makes landfall as Tropical Storm |
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Makes landfall as Hurricane Category 1 |
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Makes landfall as Hurricane Category 2 |
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Makes landfall as Hurricane Category 3 and above |
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Downgraded below Trop. Storm-doesn't make landfall |
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Downgraded below Tropical Storm and makes landfall |
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Suspend date: Tue 19th Aug 11am PDT Settlement date: Tue 19th Aug 3:16pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 19th Aug 11am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Makes landfall as Tropical Storm: 10%, Makes landfall as Hurricane Category 1: 40%, Makes landfall as Hurricane Category 2: 30%, Makes landfall as Hurricane Category 3 and above: 10%, Downgraded below Trop. Storm-doesn't make landfall: 5%, Downgraded below Tropical Storm and makes landfall: 5%
Action history:
destry destry: I will explain each outcome:
1) Fay makes Landfall in FLORIDA has a TROPICAL STORM
2) Fay makes Landfall in FLORIDA has a Category 1 Hurricane
3) Fay makes Landfall in FLORIDA has a Category 2 Hurricane
4) Fay makes Landfall in FLORIDA has a Category 3, 4, or 5 Hurricane
5) Fay is downgraded BELOW a Tropical Storm and doesn't make landfall in FLORIDA
6) Fay is downgraded BELOW a Tropical Storm and makes Landfall in FLORIDA.
Market voided if Fay doesn't make landfall in FLORIDA and is a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.
destry: Suspended pending settlement destry: Landfall as Tropical Storm in Marco Island Florida. (market suspended) 
ryanj: Fay made landfall as a tropical storm
Suspend date: Tue 19th Aug 11am PDT Settlement date: Tue 19th Aug 3:16pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 19th Aug 11am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (169)
169 predictions
infernalmachine
hippyboomer
that_pete_guy
kiwifire
bout3fitty
pixelpaws
bobdevineComments (23)
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Have your shutters up yet?
2pm forecast: "STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL CUBA ON SUNDAY."
Good luck! Looks like it's coming your way! We'll probably feel it over here (unless it turns), but you may be getting the brunt.
Related market.
Highest probability is hitting the florida coast south of Tampa, at cat 2 strength, however that is all dependent upon the steering winds, particularly how fast the high pressure system now over Florida recedes eastward. If the eye remains off the west coast of florida and heads toward the panhandle, this could easily be a cat 3 storm.
now going to Tampa not Naples....whew...one never knows with these damn storms
At Hubdub we have alot of IF/THEN markets. If Obama is elected will John Edwards be in the Cabinet. So we know that IF Obama is NOT elected, that market is voided. We allow IF/THEN markets, especially when the IF is a extremely high probability.
I will explain each outcome:
1) Fay makes Landfall in FLORIDA has a TROPICAL STORM
2) Fay makes Landfall in FLORIDA has a Category 1 Hurricane
3) Fay makes Landfall in FLORIDA has a Category 2 Hurricane
4) Fay makes Landfall in FLORIDA has a Category 3, 4, or 5 Hurricane
5) Fay is downgraded BELOW a Tropical Storm and doesn't make landfall in FLORIDA
6) Fay is downgraded BELOW a Tropical Storm and makes Landfall in FLORIDA.
Market voided if Fay doesn't make landfall in FLORIDA and is a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.
It is no wonder people don't create more markets on Hubdub, we seem to want to find the one in a million possibility and focus on it only. We need to know that some markets especially about weather will be voided due to things out of our control.
Everyone has access to my email so they can either flag market with concerns or send me direct email if they need further clarification.
gettin' closer.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
In the infrared, you can even see the eye forming for the first time in a while...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
From the 1 o'clock advisory: "FAY REFUSES TO WEAKEN..."
It's definitely picking up where I am.
FWIW, I live in Naples, Florida, and it sure *felt* like a hurricane... ;)
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