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Will the number of drug related killings in Mexico reach 3,000 by the end of 2008?

Settled as Yes

I'm going to settle this now as Yes, based on http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7643329.stm
Obviously this question is hard to be 100% sure about, but the BBC is a top news provider

Background:


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
52%
No
48%
Activity: H$4,557
Settled as Yes on Tue 30th Sep 1:03am PDT

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Tue 30th Sep 1:03am PDT

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 45%

Action history:

Created Sat 16th Aug 7:50pm PDT by jsevigny
Settlement requested Sun 28th Sep 6:07am PDT by jsevigny: Mexico violence drives demand for bulletproof cars
27 Sep 2008 00:47:49 GMT
Source: Reuters
MEXICO CITY, Sept 26 (Reuters) - German carmaker Volkswagen is making armored cars for the Mexican market as more kidnapping gangs ambush drivers with automatic weapons and rival drug cartels stage gun battles in the streets.

Volkswagen <VOWG.DE> said on Friday it is building one or two made-to-order bulletproof cars a week at its Puebla plant -- each costing $65,000 -- and orders for more keep coming.

The Bora model offered is a variant of VW's Jetta.

"We started to notice that a lot of clients take their cars to be bulletproofed after buying them. Then they come back to us because of quality problems," company spokesman Thomas Karig told Reuters.

"So we became interested in collaborating with a company specialized in this service, to offer clients a car we can manufacture with all the guarantees," he said in a phone interview.

Kidnappings have soared in Mexico in recent years with gangs using increasingly sophisticated tactics to trap their victims, setting up fake roadblocks or surrounding vehicles with commando-like operations.

Drug violence killed some 3,000 people in the country this year as heavily armed cartels fight each other and government security forces. In violent towns near the U.S.-Mexico border, civilians are often killed or injured in the cross-fire.

President Felipe Calderon has launched a frontal assault on Mexico's powerful drug gangs since taking office at the end of 2006, deploying thousands of soldiers and federal police to violent hot spots.

Last month over 150,000 people protested in simultaneous marches around the country over what they said was Calderon's failure to curb out-of-control crime. (Reporting by Armando Tovar; Writing by Mica Rosenberg; Editing by Eric Walsh)
Suspended Sun 28th Sep 9:47am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Suspended pending possible settlement.
Settled as 'Yes' Tue 30th Sep 1:03am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: I'm going to settle this now as Yes, based on http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7643329.stm
Obviously this question is hard to be 100% sure about, but the BBC is a top news provider

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Tue 30th Sep 1:03am PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (16)

16 predictions

9 weeks ago
jsevigny predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 50%)
11 weeks ago
jsevigny predicted Yes (H$100 at 49%)
12 weeks ago
dragonfangxl predicted Yes (H$20 at 50%)
13 weeks ago
jsevigny predicted Yes (H$100 at 49%)
13 weeks ago
morosofos predicted Yes (H$20 at 49%)
more

Comments (15)

Obviously this question can only be settled based on reports of totals of deaths for 2008. Because of this, there may be a delay in settlement into the New Year. We will be looking for figures from a major news organization, such as Time, CNN, Reuters, LA Times.
posted 15 weeks ago
  2 frank2877
And some people in the U.S. want "open borders". Pull the 101st out of Iraq and send them to Texas.
posted 15 weeks ago
  3 jsevigny
This question COULD be settled when and if the number reaches 3,001. - js

More than 30 people died in the worst weekend of violence this year in the northern Mexico state of Chihuahua, the scene of daily drug gang turf wars, police said Monday.

Heavily-armed assassins killed nine people in separate incidents late Sunday in the border town of Ciudad Juarez, local police said, following the slaying of 21 people the previous night -- including a baby and a four-year-old boy -- at a village dance in the town of Creel.

Drug-related violence in Mexico has killed 2,682 people since the start of the year -- nine more than in all of 2007 -- with nearly half in Chihuahua state, daily El Universal reported Saturday.

Ciudad Juarez -- across the Rio Grande from El Paso, Texas, where local drug gangs are battling the powerful Sinaloa cartel -- has the highest murder toll, with some 800 so far this year, according to an AFP count.

Federal authorities have deployed more than 36,000 soldiers across the country since early 2007, including 2,500 in Ciudad Juarez, in an effort to combat drug trafficking and related violence.

But the murder rate has climbed dramatically in two years, from 1,410 in 2006.


Copyright AFP 2008, AFP stories and photos shall not be published, broadcast, rewritten for broadcast or publication or redistributed directly or indirectly in any medium
posted 15 weeks ago
  4 jsevigny
It's Fall and we're at 2,700 dead, according to AFP.

MEXICO CITY (AFP) - Mexicans take to the streets of some 70 towns and cities Saturday, carrying candles and dressed in white, in mass protests against escalating murders and kidnappings.

Violence has risen throughout Mexico since President Felipe Calderon , who took office at the end of 2006, launched a crackdown on drug trafficking that included deploying more than 36,000 soldiers across the country.

Some 2,700 people have died this year in gangland-style killings -- more than in all of 2007 -- according to national media, and Mexico has overtaken Colombia and Iraq with its kidnapping record.
posted 13 weeks ago
  5 jsevigny
In 8 months Mexico drug-linked killings top 2007 total

Aug 16, 2008

MEXICO CITY (AFP) — Drug-related violence in Mexico killed 2,682 people across Mexico since the start of the year, more than all of 2007 (2,673), with nearly half occurring in northern Chihuahua state, El Universal daily reported Saturday.

Bordering the United States, Chihuahua saw 1,026 drug-related murders this year, or 38.2 percent of the country's total. In one 20-day period alone, July 15-August 5, there were 326 slayings in the state.

Within Chihuahua, Ciudad Juarez -- across the Rio Grande from El Paso, Texas where local drug gangs are battling the powerful Sinaloa cartel -- had the highest murder toll, with 780 so far this year, according to an AFP count.

Overnight Friday, seven people were killed in the city, including two children, one of them the nephew of a police commander, the state deputy prosecutor's office said.

In other states, drug-linked violence so far this year killed 516 people in Sinaloa, 159 in Baja California, 134 in Guerrero and 117 in Michoacan.

"Despite the government's tough offensive against organized crime and drug trafficking violence in general, this year murders have increased to the point that in just eight months we've surpassed the 2,673 murders we had all of last year," El Universal said.

Federal authorities since early 2007 have deployed more than 36,000 soldiers across the country, including 2,500 in Ciudad Juarez, in an effort to combat drug trafficking and related violence. Nevertheless, the murder rate has climbed dramatically in two years, from 1,410 in 2006.
posted 13 weeks ago
Personaly if you ask me i think we should bomb the border between the us and mexico then bomb the border between us and canada then float over back to england and ask if its to late for us to become a combined nation again! Down with drugs! Whos with me?!
posted 12 weeks ago
  7 jsevigny
I'm with you, dragon.
posted 12 weeks ago
LETS GO!!!!! ill get canada you get mexico. Its about time those drug smuggling canadians learned there lesson! damn canadians!
posted 12 weeks ago
  9 jsevigny
Why don't we conquer canada to steal their mooses, maple trees and stuff?
posted 11 weeks ago
  10 emmag
Hey, don't forget they have Dudly DoRight,too!
posted 11 weeks ago
  11 jsevigny
MEXICO CITY, Mexico (CNN) -- Eight people were killed and 101 were wounded in two explosions during a celebration of Mexico's independence day Monday night, a Mexican official said Tuesday.
Wounded people get help after blasts Monday night during an independence day event in Morelia, Mexico.

Wounded people get help after blasts Monday night during an independence day event in Morelia, Mexico.

Two people remained in grave condition, said Roman Armando Luna Escalante, secretary of health in Michoacan state. Eleven of the wounded were children, Luna Escalante said. None of them are gravely injured.

The explosions occurred around 11 p.m. near the governor's residence in Morelia, the capital of Michoacan. The second blast happened shortly afterward a few blocks away.

Officials would not say if they have any suspects or if any group has claimed responsibility.

Some experts pointed to drug cartels or insurgents.

"It could be a warning to the federal government, which has put a lot of money and manpower to deal with drugs, which are very powerful there," said Peter Hakim, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank on Western Hemisphere affairs. "It could be leftist guerrilla groups that occasionally throw a bomb.

"The problem is that this is part of a real wave of violence that is consuming Mexico."
Don't Miss

* Bodies of 24 shooting victims found in Mexico
* Headless bodies may have been burned in ritual

Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who was born in Morelia, condemned the attacks and said federal officials will redouble efforts to help state authorities investigate.

More than 1,500 soldiers and federal police were maintaining order Tuesday, which marks the 198th anniversary of what Mexicans regard as their independence day.

Festivities typically start the night before because on September 16, 1810, shortly before dawn, a priest in a village in the state of Guanajuato rang a church bell and called on Mexicans to fight for independence from Spain.
posted 11 weeks ago
As long as they keep the violence on there side of the border they can do what they want. Come over here though.... and well do to you what Bush did to taxes. Slash them down! Or maybe... Well do to you what The Allies did to Germany!
posted 11 weeks ago
  14 emmag
To be honest, I hate to see this settle. I have met many wonderful people in Mexico and I worry about them daily. No one should be subjected to this kind of violence.
posted 9 weeks ago
@emmag:

I feel the same way.
posted 9 weeks ago

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