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Will Michael Phelps Appear First on Letterman or Leno?

Settled as Phelps appears on Jay Leno's TONIGHT SHOW

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/entertainment_tv_tvblog/2008/08/michael-phelp-5.html

Background:

NBC has had a virtual lock on Olympic broadcast coverage, including live interviews with Michael Phelps -- will that translate into a coup with a featured guest appearance from Michael Phelps on NBC's Tonight Show with Jay Leno?

But Dave Letterman has a long tradition of getting world-class sports stars to immediately appear first on Late Night, -- including NFL, NBA, and MLB stars; NASCAR and Indy 500 winners, as well as Tour de France winners ... and the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Winners!

Will Michael Phelps first appear live, in person, on Leno or Letterman?


Settlement details: Only live appearances, in person, shall qualify for settlement.

This may suspend early, based on an announcement from NBC or CBS -- but ought NOT SETTLE until Michael Phelps's appearance has occurred, (Too many appearances have been postponed on both programs due to the growing airline snafus.)

As reported by a major mainstream news source, and confirmed by either NBC or CBS.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Phelps appears on Jay Leno's TONIGHT SHOW
72%
Phelps appears on LATE NIGHT with David Letterman
25%
Phelps doesn't appear by Dec 5, 2008
3%
Activity: H$43,160
Settled as Phelps appears on Jay Leno's TONIGHT SHOW on Wed 27th Aug 3:59am PDT

Suspend date: this Friday 8pm PST (2 days to go) Settlement date: Wed 27th Aug 3:59am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 26th Aug 4pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Phelps appears on Jay Leno's TONIGHT SHOW: 47%, Phelps appears on LATE NIGHT with David Letterman: 47%, Phelps doesn't appear by Dec 5, 2008: 6%

Action history:

Created Sun 17th Aug 12:26am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]
Suspended Tue 26th Aug 6:37pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Tue 26th Aug 6:37pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Winning prediction = "Phelps appears on Jay Leno's TONIGHT SHOW"

"David Letterman and Jay Leno have been fighting to round up America's Olympic stars.

The victor? NBC's Jay Leno, who interviews swimmer Michael Phelps (picutred) on the Monday, Sept. 8, edition of "The Tonight Show." It will be Phelps' first late-night stop since the Beijing Games ended."

<http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/entertainment_tv_tvblog/2008/08/michael-phelp-5.html>

Late prediction voids: At least 7:00PM EDT tonight.

There likely are earlier reports. (market suspended)
Settled as 'Phelps appears on Jay Leno's TONIGHT SHOW' Wed 27th Aug 3:59am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/entertainment_tv_tvblog/2008/08/michael-phelp-5.html

Suspend date: this Friday 8pm PST (2 days to go) Settlement date: Wed 27th Aug 3:59am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 26th Aug 4pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (116)

116 predictions

14 weeks ago
secretyeti predicted Phelps appears on Jay Leno's TONIGHT SHOW (H$20 at 92%)
14 weeks ago
tronewy predicted Phelps appears on Jay Leno's TONIGHT SHOW (H$6,500 at 84%)
14 weeks ago
mraleigh predicted Phelps appears on Jay Leno's TONIGHT SHOW (H$50 at 72%)
14 weeks ago
web71787 predicted Phelps appears on Jay Leno's TONIGHT SHOW (H$294 at 81%)
14 weeks ago
fryguy1013 predicted Phelps appears on Jay Leno's TONIGHT SHOW (H$100 at 66%)
more

Comments (10)

I LOVE THIS QUESTION!!!
posted 15 weeks ago
  2 coolkraft
fantastic question
posted 15 weeks ago
If it were me, I'd pick Letterman, since Leno's a big bore, but it's not me. And since NBC carried the Olympics, they have the inside shot.
posted 15 weeks ago
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
Leno for two reasons....one, like Natsthename said...Leno is an NBC show and they carried the Olympics.

secondly...he's probably coming through LA on the way home and it would be convenient to stop there first before going to NY then the Carolinas...........
posted 15 weeks ago
Olympic beach volleyball gold medalists Kerri Walsh and Misty May-Treanor will appear on the Late Show with David Letterman, on Wednesday, August 27th, on CBS.
posted 14 weeks ago
Dara Torres — who picked up three silvers at age 41 to become the oldest Olympic swimming medalist ever — visits The Tonight Show With Jay Leno on Monday (Aug. 25, 11:35 pm/ET, NBC). Jay also has individual all-around gymnastics champ Nastia Liukin on Tuesday and freestyle wrestler Henry Cejudo, the gold medalist at 55 kilograms, on Wednesday.
posted 14 weeks ago
  7 jchiang
What if he shows up on both shows?
posted 14 weeks ago
He's unlikely to do both shows on the same night... whichever he does first will settle.
posted 14 weeks ago
SHOCKER!!! Michael Phelps to replace Jay Leno
The television latenight world has just been turned upside down. NBC has just announced that Olympic gold medalist Michael Phelps will be taking over the Tonight Show, replacing Jay Leno. The development is a major setback for Conan O'Brien who was supposed to take over the show.
http://www.datelinehollywood.com/dateline_hollywood/2008/08/shocker-michael.html
posted 14 weeks ago
  10 Erik
Jay Leno Reconsiders Retirement After Georgia Woman Sets Boyfriend's Crotch On Fire
http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/jay_leno_reconsiders
posted 14 weeks ago

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