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How many states will Hubdub get right in the 2008 Presidential election?

Settled as 48-50

Indiana wrong
MO, SC still up in the air

Other 48 all correct (47 states + DC)

Must settle as 48-50

Background:

There are currently markets for all 50 states, as well as the District of Columbia. How many of these will settle on whichever candidate has the higher percentage?

For sake of this question, the District of Columbia counts as a "state" as it does have three electoral votes.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

All 51
20%
48-50
38%
45-47
30%
42-44
6%
39-41
2%
36-38
2%
33-35
1%
30-32
1%
26-29
0%
25 or fewer
0%
Activity: H$17,606
Settled as 48-50 on Wed 5th Nov 1:23pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 5th Nov 1:23pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: All 51: 1%, 48-50: 4%, 45-47: 10%, 42-44: 20%, 39-41: 20%, 36-38: 15%, 33-35: 15%, 30-32: 10%, 26-29: 4%, 25 or fewer: 1%

Action history:

Created Sun 17th Aug 12:18pm PDT by pixelpaws
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:46am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-03 19:59:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 5th Nov 9:08am PST by theonecalledmichael: Can settle as 48-50, Indiana was wrong, and two are outstanding, making the least 48 and the most 50....
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/
Settlement requested Wed 5th Nov 1:21pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Indiana wrong
MO, SC still up in the air

Other 48 all correct (47 states + DC)

Must settle as 48-50
Settled as '48-50' Wed 5th Nov 1:23pm PST by destry[Admin]: Indiana wrong
MO, SC still up in the air

Other 48 all correct (47 states + DC)

Must settle as 48-50

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 5th Nov 1:23pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (111)

111 predictions

4 weeks ago
thomismydad[Power User] predicted 48-50 (H$500 at 35%)
4 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted All 51 (H$100 at 21%)
4 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted 45-47 (H$500 at 30%)
4 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted 42-44 (H$66 at 6%)
4 weeks ago
tpillon predicted 48-50 (H$100 at 37%)
more

Comments (4)

  2 pixelpaws
I saw that question and wasn't sure whether to post this or not. I suppose the distinction I'm making here is that I'm asking about the number of individual markets that will prove correct, as opposed to whether the total result suggested by those markets will be right.
posted 15 weeks ago
  3 dieseldog
if i read it right the question NW linked to is the vote of the HD community...ie has no bearing on the actual election results by the american ppl. i think pixepaws is counting the results from the american ppl in this question. do i have the right?
posted 15 weeks ago
  4 pixelpaws
@ Dieseldog - My question here is meant to compare the state-by-state results from Hubdub with the actual results in November. The question Newswrangler linked to has to do with the overall popular vote count. In the unlikely event that a state's market end on 50/50 at election day, then I'll leave it up to the admins to decide what happens.
posted 11 weeks ago

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