ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
Where will the next accident occur with more than 100 fatalities?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7572643.stm
Background:
A accident caused by a natural disaster will not count. A natural disaster is: Tsunami, Hurricane, Earthquake, Volcano, Wildfire, Mudslide/landslide, Flood, Winter Weather (Blizzard), Extreme Heat (Heat Wave), Tornadoes, etc...
Taken from: CDC ( http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/ )
A natural disaster must not play a role in the accident, storms at sea which aren't Hurricanes or Typhoons don't count as natural disasters.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. If an event is reported as a natural disaster it is a natural disaster.
Water (outside coastal waters): If accident happens beyond coastal exterior of a nation the market will settle as "Water (outside coastal waters)." To be outside coastal waters it must be more than 12 nautical miles off coastal exterior.
The Regions listed as options are taken from this: http://www.un.org/depts/dhl/maplib/worldregions.htm
So for example Russia is in Europe according to the UN, so a accident in Russia would settles as Europe.
Settled
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Africa |
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Asia |
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Europe |
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Latin America |
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North America |
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Oceania |
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No Accident Before December |
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Water (outside coastal waters) |
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Suspend date: last Sunday 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 20th Aug 1:09pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 20th Aug 5:25am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Africa: 10%, Asia: 30%, Europe: 10%, Latin America: 10%, North America: 10%, Oceania: 5%, No Accident Before December : 10%, Water (outside coastal waters): 15%
Action history:
ryanj 
mrperfkt: Suspended pending settlement mrperfkt: Might want to check late wagers on this one - nice spike!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080820/ap_on_re_eu/spain_airport_accident (market suspended)
dragonfangxl: Spanish Plane crash, 150 casualtys. ryanj: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7572643.stm
Suspend date: last Sunday 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 20th Aug 1:09pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 20th Aug 5:25am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
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predicted Asia (H$100 at 34%)Comments (11)
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I'm guessing you would consider the following to be natural events also, right?
Bacterial outbreaks, raging pandemics, clouds of locusts, red tides, viral contagion, hammering hailstorms, lethal lightning, sudden belching of toxic formerly underground fumes, animal stampedes, massive meteorites...?
Not to be morbid, but if a cave or tunnel in a deep coal mine collapses, and no reason is determined, would you consider that to be a natural event?
Cheers,
Ryan
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