tarpash 
Will McCain's or Obama's convention speech receive higher TV ratings?
McCain 5.2
Obama 5.0
Background:
All networks and cable outlets will cover these events, BUT THIS MARKET WILL SETTLE ON THE BASIS OF NBC'S RATINGS FROM 10PM-11PM ON BOTH THURSDAYS (AUG 28 & SEP 4). It would be too confusing to consider the ratings from every network, so I simply picked NBC because NBC Nightly News is rated higher than ABC World News Tonight or CBS Evening News.
The networks do not plan to cover every minute of the conventions. They each plan daily coverage from 10pm-11pm. More information on programming can be found here: http://www.tvweek.com/news/2008/08/convention_coverage_runs_the_g_1.php
Settlement details:
As reported by http://www.zap2it.com/tv/ratings/ or a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Obama's speech |
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McCain's speech |
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Suspend date: Mon 25th Aug 5:59pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 6th Sep 10:20am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 25th Aug 5:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Obama's speech: 65%, McCain's speech: 35%
Action history:
tarpash 
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: McCain 5.2
Suspend date: Mon 25th Aug 5:59pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 6th Sep 10:20am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 25th Aug 5:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (25)
25 predictions
piterwilson
jhouseholder
valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted McCain's speech (H$25 at 10%)
kiwifire
pippi1500
morgie
rbrog77
alison78
youbetComments (8)
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New in Politics » US Election 2008
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/09/05/mccain-tv-ratings-beat-obama-in-preliminary-numbers/4945
I predicted McCain would beat out the Palin in the other question, but this question suspended back in August, otherwise a bet on "McCain" would have likely been a sure winner.
Nielsen can flesh out which candidate had the most viewers -- which would be interesting to know (but that data wouldn't settle this market).
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