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Fall TV Preview: How will Crusoe (NBC) do?

Current forecast: Series is cancelled before Jan 1st (25% chance2%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Series is cancelled before Jan 1st with a probability of 25% (up 2% in last 1 day)

Premieres: Friday, Oct. 17, 8 pm/ET

Who's on it: Philip Winchester, Sean Bean and Sam Neill, making a rare television appearance

What it's about: NBC has released few details about this adventure series currently filming in the U.K. and South Africa. But it's based on the classic novel about a castaway (Winchester) who spends eight years on a desert island. The series will also depict flashback scenes of his life before his shipwreck, including clashes with his father (Bean) and the counsel of a family friend (Neill).

Schedule
Source


Settlement details: As reported by TVGuide.com

Question will settle as soon as an option is true. Examples:
* A show held back for midseason (premieres in Jan) and then cancelled in March would settle as "Does not premiere by Jan 1st"
* A show cancelled prior to its first showing settles as "Series is cancelled before airing of 4th show"
* A show moved to a different network (i.e. NBC-> USA) will count as cancelled as its no longer running on the original network.

Ordering new episodes for the 1st season does not settle as renewing. Renewing applies only for second season announcements.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Make your prediction!

Series does not premiere by Jan 1st
10%
Series is cancelled before airing of 4th show
17%
Series is cancelled before Jan 1st
25%
Series is cancelled after Jan 1st
20%
Series is renewed after Jan 1st
14%
Series is renewed before Jan 1st
8%
Series is renewed before airing of 4th show
6%
Activity: H$6,658
Question suspends in 21 weeks

Suspend date: Sat 2nd May 2009 12:59am PDT (21 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Series does not premiere by Jan 1st: 5%, Series is cancelled before airing of 4th show: 25%, Series is cancelled before Jan 1st: 30%, Series is cancelled after Jan 1st: 20%, Series is renewed after Jan 1st: 10%, Series is renewed before Jan 1st: 5%, Series is renewed before airing of 4th show: 5%

Action history:

Created Mon 18th Aug 5:33am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]

Suspend date: Sat 2nd May 2009 12:59am PDT (21 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (56)

56 predictions

3 weeks ago
swatjester predicted Series is cancelled after Jan 1st (H$100 at 15%)
3 weeks ago
jyamasaki predicted Series is cancelled before Jan 1st (H$20 at 40%)
5 weeks ago
ourtown predicted Series is cancelled before Jan 1st (H$100 at 41%)
6 weeks ago
cartographer predicted Series is cancelled before airing of 4th show (H$50 at 16%)
7 weeks ago
joaoxxx predicted Series is cancelled after Jan 1st (H$50 at 13%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 pixelpaws
I saw this advertised fairly heavily during the games last night, so I doubt it's going to get canned without airing at all. That said, this looks like a really lame attempt to get ratings and I doubt it'll last long.
posted 15 weeks ago

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