What will be the result of Monday's Gallup Presidential Poll?

Suspend date: Mon 25th Aug 9:30am PDT Settlement date: Mon 25th Aug 12:20pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 25th Aug 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Obama leads by 9 points or more: 5%, Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points: 30%, Obama leads by 3,4, or 5 points: 40%, Statistical Tie +/- 2 points: 20%, McCain leads by 3,4, or 5 points: 3%, McCain leads by 6,7, or 8 points: 1%, McCain leads by 9 points or more: 1%

Action history:

Created Mon 18th Aug 10:48am PDT by jenniandboys

Suspended Mon 25th Aug 9:30am PDT : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Mon 25th Aug 10:30am PDT by newswrangler: Winning prediction = "Statistical Tie +/- 2 points"

"The last Gallup Poll Daily tracking polling conducted before the beginning of the Democratic National Convention shows Barack Obama and John McCain tied at 45%."

<http://www.gallup.com/poll/109792/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tied-Democratic-Convention-Starts.aspx>

Settled as 'Statistical Tie +/- 2 points' Mon 25th Aug 12:20pm PDT by destry: Winning prediction = "Statistical Tie +/- 2 points"

"The last Gallup Poll Daily tracking polling conducted before the beginning of the Democratic National Convention shows Barack Obama and John McCain tied at 45%."

<http://www.gallup.com/poll/109792/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tied-Democratic-Convention-Starts.aspx>

Suspend date: Mon 25th Aug 9:30am PDT Settlement date: Mon 25th Aug 12:20pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 25th Aug 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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