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How much damage will Fay cause in the US?

Voided

Due to new rules regarding how markets are to be settled the market must be voided. Cat-Ed's can not personally contact news agencies or the insurance company in this market therefore we can't settle a market such as this.

Background:

Fay is likely to make landfall on the coast of Florida within the next day or so. How much damage is she going to cause?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Question should be suspended after the storm makes landfall on the US mainland; suspend date currently set to NOAA's landfall estimate.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

Under $1 million
1%
$1 to $9.99 million
2%
$10 to $99.99 million
3%
$100 to $249.99 million
15%
$250 to $499.99 million
20%
$500 to $749.99 million
25%
$750 to $999.99 million
20%
$1 to $2.49 billion
10%
$2.5 to $4.99 billion
3%
$5 billion or more
1%
Voided Tue 9th Sep 3:48am PDT

Suspend date: Tue 19th Aug 5am PDT

Initial likelihoods: Under $1 million: 1%, $1 to $9.99 million: 2%, $10 to $99.99 million: 3%, $100 to $249.99 million: 15%, $250 to $499.99 million: 20%, $500 to $749.99 million: 25%, $750 to $999.99 million: 20%, $1 to $2.49 billion: 10%, $2.5 to $4.99 billion: 3%, $5 billion or more: 1%

Action history:

Created Mon 18th Aug 10:55am PDT by pixelpaws
Suspended Mon 18th Aug 11:10am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Suspended pending review by category editor on how and when this would settle.
Clarified Mon 18th Aug 11:39am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: After calling NOAA I've been told the best place for rapid damage estimates will the insurance industry. www.iii.org
Will be the best place to find damage estimates 24-48 hours after the storm. I have the site and a direct line # to their media office so we will go by III estimates.
Unsuspended Mon 18th Aug 11:39am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: After calling NOAA I've been told the best place for rapid damage estimates will the insurance industry. www.iii.org
Will be the best place to find damage estimates 24-48 hours after the storm. I have the site and a direct line # to their media office so we will go by III estimates.
Clarified Mon 18th Aug 11:43am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Media Direct Line: 2123465500
80 Number: 800 331 9146
Suspended Tue 19th Aug 5am PDT : Suspend date reached
Voided Tue 9th Sep 3:48am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Due to new rules regarding how markets are to be settled the market must be voided. Cat-Ed's can not personally contact news agencies or the insurance company in this market therefore we can't settle a market such as this.

Suspend date: Tue 19th Aug 5am PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (16)

16 predictions

15 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted $250 to $499.99 million (H$100 at 11%)
15 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted $100 to $249.99 million (H$100 at 10%)
15 weeks ago
dasorakelvondelphi predicted $1 to $9.99 million (H$150 at 22%)
15 weeks ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted $10 to $99.99 million (H$750 at 16%)
15 weeks ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted $1 to $9.99 million (H$1,000 at 14%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 ryanj[Admin]
Hi

After calling NOAA I've been told the best place for rapid damage estimates will the insurance industry. www.iii.org
Will be the best place to find damage estimates 24-48 hours after the storm. I have the site and a direct line # to their media office so we will go by III estimates.

Cheers,
Ryan
posted 15 weeks ago
  2 pixelpaws
One thing that I probably should have specified is that this question should reflect the TOTAL damage, which is usually estimated as double the insured damage. I apologize for not making this more clear in the original question and apologize to anyone who took a different interpretation.

Also, Ryan, that sounds like an excellent way of getting this settled quickly.
posted 15 weeks ago

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