Created Mon 18th Aug 11:18am PDT by pixelpaws

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Which console will sell the most units worldwide during Q4 2008?

Great question, but the starting likelihoods are inaccurate for Other option. Should be resubmitted either without Other or define a list of consoles that count as Other and set likelihoods accurately from settlement source.

Background:

Settlement details: As reported at http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php using the "total" region and the date range 04 October 2008 to 03 January 2009.

Which console will sell the most units worldwide during Q4 2008?

    Nintendo Wii

    Microsoft Xbox 360

    Sony PS3

    Other

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Forecast history, %

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Voided

	Nintendo Wii	54%
	Microsoft Xbox 360	30%
	Sony PS3	15%
	Other	1%

Voided Sun 7th Sep 12:38pm PDT

Suspend date: Fri 2nd Jan 2009 12pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Nintendo Wii: 54%, Microsoft Xbox 360: 30%, Sony PS3: 15%, Other: 1%

Action history:

Created Mon 18th Aug 11:18am PDT by pixelpaws

Voided Sun 7th Sep 12:38pm PDT by tomg: Great question, but the starting likelihoods are inaccurate for Other option. Should be resubmitted either without Other or define a list of consoles that count as Other and set likelihoods accurately from settlement source.

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Suspend date: Fri 2nd Jan 2009 12pm PST (4 weeks to go)
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Predictions (120)

120 predictions

12 weeks ago

john_bloom predicted Microsoft Xbox 360 (H$100 at 11%)

12 weeks ago

vigilante9801 predicted Microsoft Xbox 360 (H$100 at 9%)

12 weeks ago

henrymarketing97 predicted Nintendo Wii (H$20 at 42%)

12 weeks ago

robamichael predicted Other (H$50 at 37%)

12 weeks ago

steez predicted Nintendo Wii (H$100 at 48%)

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12 weeks ago

john_bloom predicted Microsoft Xbox 360 (H$100 at 11%)

12 weeks ago

vigilante9801 predicted Microsoft Xbox 360 (H$100 at 9%)

12 weeks ago

henrymarketing97 predicted Nintendo Wii (H$20 at 42%)

12 weeks ago

robamichael predicted Other (H$50 at 37%)

12 weeks ago

steez predicted Nintendo Wii (H$100 at 48%)

12 weeks ago

gregowen predicted Nintendo Wii (H$100 at 47%)

12 weeks ago

misnomer predicted Nintendo Wii (H$50 at 48%)

12 weeks ago

themuffinking predicted Nintendo Wii (H$100 at 47%)

12 weeks ago

fragile predicted Nintendo Wii (H$100 at 46%)

12 weeks ago

simplynone predicted Nintendo Wii (H$50 at 45%)

12 weeks ago

tomg predicted Nintendo Wii (H$50 at 44%)

12 weeks ago

vigilante9801 predicted Microsoft Xbox 360 (H$100 at 8%)

12 weeks ago

armchainmstenw predicted Nintendo Wii (H$20 at 39%)

Showing recent public predictions only

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Comments (9)

  1 pixelpaws

I noticed that "other" has a huge spike here. Did I somehow miss an announcement about a new console or did someone just stake a fortune on the DS, PSP, or something I've never heard of entirely?

posted 14 weeks ago

  2 fingers_of_fury

Good question pixelpaws... for the last 3 months DS outsold the Wii by 1.7 million consoles

posted 14 weeks ago

  3 pixelpaws

I didn't realize that the DS was outselling the Wii by such a large margin. For further comparison, it outsold the Wii 12.7 million to 7.1 million in Q4 2007, though there were supply issues for the Wii during that time that kept sales down. I think it will be quite a bit closer this season, but in hindsight I probably should have included the DS as an option.

posted 14 weeks ago

  4 101airborne

....I didnt know we were counting hanheld devices as consoles.... I should've read the settlement... That scuks! Most gamers don't consider handheld devices to be consoles.... like me...

posted 13 weeks ago

  5 theonecalledmichael

To be fair, looking at the starting odds, if the ds, psp, and other handheld devices are considered as "other", then the starting odds should have been MUCH different....surely the "other" odds would have been greater than 1%!!!
FLAGGED

posted 12 weeks ago

  6 theonecalledmichael

Another consideration is that the PS2 still has huge numbers worldwide, is a console, and the odds should have been higher for other....

posted 12 weeks ago

  7 101airborne

If you go to http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php and scroll over "world", "compare consoles", it will show the sales for each console. Handheld devices arent even on the list. And there is no "other" console on there.... So, are we just counting the actual game consoles? Or are handhelds being considered too? Cause the PSP + DS sales will blow every real console out of the water.

posted 12 weeks ago

  8 jakethesnake

It appears that pixelpaws above (the question creator) implies that handhelds would be considered based upon her comment, but if you want clarification, flag it for review to get a decision.

posted 12 weeks ago

  9 robamichael

I can't believe this is voided. Console is any device that plays games. Wiki it.....


Ridiculous.

posted 12 weeks ago

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