buckeyetom 
Wild West Showdown in Rattlesnake Land: Who will be Sheriff?
Since this is a Primary Election only a candidate with more than 50% of the vote can be deemed the true winner. If no candidate has a 50% +1 majority vote, the top two candidates will face off in the General Election on November 4, 2008. This question is what will be the PRIMARY ELECTIONS LEADING candidates margin over the second place finisher. There are over 1 million voters in Maricopa County. Here are some links to help you along and get to know the contenders:
http://www.sabanforsheriff.com/2008/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Arpaio
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/116497
http://recorder.maricopa.gov/web/electioncalendar.aspx
"Other" is the election is decided in court, election voided, election postponed, etc.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Saban Wins by 1 Vote to 2% |
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Saban Wins by 3% to 5% |
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Saban Wins by 6% to 9% |
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Saban Wins by 10% or More |
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Arpaio Wins by 1 Vote to 2% |
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Arpaio Wins by 3% to 5% |
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Arpaio Wins by 6% to 9% |
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Arpaio Wins by 10% or More |
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Chris Will Gets most Votes |
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Other Outcome |
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Suspend date: Tue 2nd Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2:57pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 2nd Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Saban Wins by 1 Vote to 2%: 12%, Saban Wins by 3% to 5%: 12%, Saban Wins by 6% to 9%: 12%, Saban Wins by 10% or More: 12%, Arpaio Wins by 1 Vote to 2%: 12%, Arpaio Wins by 3% to 5%: 12%, Arpaio Wins by 6% to 9%: 12%, Arpaio Wins by 10% or More: 12%, Chris Will Gets most Votes: 3%, Other Outcome: 1%
Action history:
buckeyetom 
notablenotices![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
: I believe this should be settled with Joe Arpio winning by more than 10%
The data is here:
http://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionresults/
Also see the numbers I copied from that site to comment number 8.
Thanks!
kasulked: please settle this it looks like it was won by more then 10% 
onedave: Will received 817 votes. Arpaio received 180,517 votes. Saban received 93,288 votes.
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=327900
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=453498
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=327899
onedave: Please settle as 'Arpaio Wins by 10% or More' according to the previous settlement request. 
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
Suspend date: Tue 2nd Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2:57pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 2nd Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (59)
59 predictions
pippi1500Comments (9)
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buckeyetom
296 settled, 3 voided
Dallas County is re-electing a SELF PROCLAIMED Latina Lesbian Sheriff, who is very short on stature but very highly respected in Dallas. This pistol 'packin mama has cleaned up a LOT of corruption under the previous Sheriff and possibly has a better popularity rating than the Mayor. The Ol' West will never be the same, but what a great change! She gets the job done...
That sounds good. Why don't you put up the question and let us take a shot at it? She sounds interesting. Sheriff Joe is a tough guy who really believes in embarrassing the heck out of prisoners. Making them wear pink, sleep in tents with no A/C, eat crummy food, etc. He's does not back down from the immigration issues either, even though that should be the Feds job. Maybe Latina Lady and Sheriff Joe could duke it out on a reality TV show? What would it be called???
My sample ballot arrived in the mail... Joe Arpaio is the only name I see under sheriff and the other option is a write-in candidate... did Saban and Will miss some deadlines or something?
Was that just a Republican ballot? Since it's a primary they may have split the candidates up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lupe_Valdez
ARPAIO, nbsp;JOE* nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp;123549 nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp;180517 nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp;100
SABAN, nbsp;DAN* nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp;64653 nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp;93288 nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp;100
WILL, nbsp;CHRIS nbsp;A.H.* nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp;557 nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp;817 nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp;100
(From the Maricopa County Recorder website) http://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionresults/
ARPAIO, JOE* 123549 180517 100
SABAN, DAN* 64653 93288 100
WILL, CHRIS A.H.* 557 817 100
(From the Maricopa County Recorder website) http://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionresults/
Hope this turns out better!
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