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When will Nadal drop from the Number 1 ranking?

Current forecast: March 2009 and beyond (93% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is March 2009 and beyond with a probability of 93% (unchanged in last 1 day)

After years of waiting, Nadal finally becomes the world number in the ATP tennis rankings, but when will he drop or fall from the number 1 spot?


Settlement details: http://www.atptennis.com/3/en/rankings/

 
Forecast history, %
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August 2008
0%
Sept 2008
1%
Oct 2008
1%
Nov 2008
1%
Dec 2008
1%
Jan 2009
2%
Feb 2009
3%
March 2009 and beyond
93%
Activity: H$34,404
Question suspends in 12 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 1st Mar 2009 11:59pm PST (12 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: August 2008: 5%, Sept 2008: 15%, Oct 2008: 15%, Nov 2008: 15%, Dec 2008: 15%, Jan 2009: 15%, Feb 2009: 15%, March 2009 and beyond: 5%

Action history:

Created Mon 18th Aug 3:02pm PDT by legojedi

Suspend date: Sun 1st Mar 2009 11:59pm PST (12 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (36)

36 predictions

3 days ago
essiendrogbamikel predicted March 2009 and beyond (H$20 at 93%)
1 week ago
cheese predicted Feb 2009 (H$20 at 2%)
3 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted Feb 2009 (H$25 at 2%)
3 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted March 2009 and beyond (H$6,000 at 86%)
3 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted March 2009 and beyond (H$5,000 at 91%)
more

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