Where will the next accident occur with more than 100 fatalities?

Am I the only one who finds this series of markets very tasteless? How were people who predicted in the previous one feeling while checking the Spain plane crash news? "Oh no, please let it be less than 100, I put my hub dollars in Asia", "Yay, I said it would be Europe, let's see how much I won."

I don't get it. It is kind of sick IMHO.

I won a little bit of money on the last market, and I felt crap.

I don't generally bet on dying/injury markets, even though somehow it's ok if it's reported on the news everyday. I guess this takes it a step further because it asks you to engage in the market, but if you have a moral problem with them, then don't play them.

I am sure nobody feels good and in that sense I admit some exaggeration on my previous post. Sorry if I hurt any feelings. One of the problems with this kind of market is it is not predictable. It is not much different than rolling the dice. Hurricane predictions, even guessing where the next suicide bomber will attack may be rationalized within the realm of predicition markets although they are also tragic. Involvement in them, their existence can produce some positive things. I can't imagine any for this market. I think there is a line and there should be a line. I don't know where that line is passing exactly but this market certainly seems to me falling on the wrong side.

"If you have a moral problem with them don't play them" I agree with that position. It is the only way to coexist here in hubdub. I just wanted to share my feelings hoping question creaters and market participants may think deeper about this. If interest decreases in these questions because of this self evaluation and our discussion here and at one point they cease to exist, I'd be glad. If not, I'll move on, it wouldn't be my problem any more since I've done my part.

When I first started to Hubdub, I was shocked by some of the tasteless questions, and used to flag them for review.. Now I find myself betting on some of them. i am ashamed at this change, but i guess we all get corrupted by things.. I know I wish there was not evil in the world. ... Oh well, I do not know what else to say.
I think there should be some kind of "line". I don't know what it is, or where it should be drawn. Hope hubdub has some standards. Does anyone know if there is a line, and what it is?

@pembeci, bigken1 and anyone else who is interested:
We spent quite a while discussing this topic back in March... I'll direct you to a couple places where that discussion occurred:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_many_American_soldiers_will_be_killed_in_Iraq_in_February_2008_1531/view
http://blog.hubdub.com/2008/02/21/a-question-of-morality/
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/a_question_of_morality

To summarize: you are not alone. Many people are uncomfortable about betting on troops dying, celebrities overdosing and planes blowing up. On the other hand, they are valid news and this is a news prediction site. As long as the market is tied to a valid news story, Hubdub has decided to allow the market to run. Hopefully, you can find lots of other markets that interest you and avoid those you find distasteful.

jenniandboys, thanks for the links. It was an interesting discussion with lots of quality thoughts and I agree with the general consensus. As I said before my position is also this (Donal): "As far as I am concerned, If I feel a question is immoral, I won't create it, nor will I make a prediction on it.". In addition, I suggest if we found a market immoral, we should voice our concerns to make people think about it.

I understand it is hard to formalize a line but besides the morality question this market doesn't have the following qualities (destry's comment):

"Isn't the purpose of news to open our eyes to the events occuring around the world and right here at home. I know for me, I am a proud American who believe in our troops, I have no problem with this question. It actually opened my eyes to go look for the number of casualties, heightening my knowledge, and the knowledge of others, is a great cause, and if a question like this can spark knowledge, which might lead to awareness, which hopefully leads to more informed decision making, then I am all for it."

I can't relate this question to any kind of knowledge, awareness, or informed decision making. For all the problematic questions I can find arguments how they can fit into being a prediction market, how they can be viewed appropriate considering the purpose of prediction markets. Such an argument would be a long stretch for this one, not convincing at all.

@pembeci - it is hard to argue against my own comments. I concur with your observation that this market doesn't have the obvious effects of opening our eyes, or heightening our knowledge, but I would say that this market does make us a little more aware of the tragedies in the world. How many people would not have been exposed to the last tragedy had it not been for a market like this one, and wouldn't society be served if just one person became aware and offered help in some form. So while I agree that these markets are skirting the gray area of news worthiness, the only way they will cease to be on the site is when they don't receive wagers, and no longer provide any purpose for the hubdub community or society in general.
While I am on the subject of benefiting society, I would like to suggest that everyone who can pick a day each month, and do something for someone else they weren't expecting. Pay for someones gas at the gas station, buy lunch for the people behind you in line at the fast food restaurant, or simply let someone in front of you when they are in a rush, by reaching out in some small way to do something for someone you don't know, while expecting nothing in return, you will find that your life is enriched. Plus you just might bring a smile to the face of someone who needed it more than you.

It is also newsworthy, and worthy of a prediction market because to some degree, some of these accidents can be anticipated...accidents are often caused by poorly maintained or substandard equipment, or other oversights that can cause lives to be put at risk. Population aside, it is more likely that people in certain parts of the world are in greater risk of dying in 'accidents' than others.

The Spanish plane crash was unexpected, but as Destry said..."this market does make us a little more aware of the tragedies in the world. How many people would not have been exposed to the last tragedy had it not been for a market like this one, and wouldn't society be served if just one person became aware and offered help in some form."

We aren't (or shouldn't be) looking at this other than a news awareness situation. Because I am now more aware of conditions throughout the world that may be more likely to suffer from events like this I am, as Destry said, slightly better able to understand life elsewhere.

As Pembeci quoted Destry as well (he says so many good things) these questions "actually opened my eyes to go look for the number of casualties, heightening my knowledge, and the knowledge of others..."

We're trying to look at events that people in the world should be aware of and interested in. Perhaps sometimes these may not be of interest to some of our hubdubbers...but, unpleasant as it may be, they are news and we should be aware of them, if for no other reason than to try to feel some of the sorrow others feel and do what we can to help...

Those UN boundaries are kind of strange. Egypt is in Africa but Israel is in Asia. And Russia which at least locally is North-East of Georgia (Asia) is in Europe.

Speaking of Georgia, if that fuel train which hit a landmine recently had resulted in over a 100 deaths would that have been an accident? (I notice that although this question is tight on excluding natural disasters, it is a little loose about acts of war, acts of terrorism, and situations which are related to such but which are debatable regarding their accidental nature, such as the hypothetical example mentioned.)

@destry and @bayoubear, I hear you. Good points. Let's hope this market is having effects like those on most of the participants.

Actually, there is a good solution to this dilemma but it would require some additional coding in various parts of hubdub. Give the question creator the option to make a question limited. By limited I mean there is a limit to how much can be wagered on an option (let's say 50$ or 100$). May be even a constraint on the number of options that can be chosen (1 would work for me). This will allow these kind(s?) of gray area markets serve their purpose better. If you are looking for a market to make some big hubdub dollars this is not a market for you but if you are here to participate for whatever other reason, you are welcome. Limited markets' usefullness are not limited to the morally disturbing markets. They may be also employed for experimental markets, just for fun markets, testing the waters for new type of questions, practicing the initial likelihoods etc.

@ infernalmachine -- if you're asking for clarification about "acts of war", etc., from a category editor, in addition to asking in the comment thread, you ought send a flag via the "Flag for review" link. That will send an email directly to the appropriate category editor.

We need more questions about LOL cats and the other 25 minutes worth of fluff in any 30 minutes of network news.

i luv lolcatz

hmmmm...
this is a close call.
supposedly, over 100 are dead in China, due to a mudslide. however, the mudslide, while possibly 'triggered' by rain, was actually caused by an illegal dumping of 'stuff' from an illegal mine.
The Chinese press are labeling it a mining-accident.

So, I'm suspending this market until the Category Editor can take a look.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26632681/

@destry you gotta watch the movie "pay it forward", it's tragic but a true story

@meanderingsearcher - I saw it and thought it was really good. When I was in high school I started a program called Risk a R.A.S.K. (Random Act of Senseless Kindness). I just love the way a small act can continue to grow. My buddy owns a few Subway's here in town and everytime I go he never charges me, so I always pay for the people behind me. I have recently started buying $10 food cards from mcdonalds and wendys and pass them out anytime I run across some homeless people.

Pay it forward: The game
http://community.akoha.com/learn/

Look what is the point of them dieing in vain? Im sure they would be a little happier when they died if they knew i made 200 off them.

@dragon...thats just plain mean.

Im not saying its a good thing there dieing. Im saying that if they have to die and i did nothing to increase it happening why shouldnt the earths loss be softened. Wouldnt you agree?

@dragon - ROTFL!!! at your comment #18...

@dragonfangxl..i guess thats one way to look at it. you got a rotfl out of f-o-f so you brightened his day also. i have mixed feelings about betting on dieing. i tend not to. some folks choose to. thats what makes HD attractive..to each his own deal if ya will.

Thanks for comments #18 through #22 - i believe we've just discovered utilitarianism in the hd community folks!

have to agree with cognos
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26632681/

we all played in mud as kids thank goodness and we never got ill lol