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How many of Toronto's 2865 stolen bicycles will owners reclaim before Sept 8?

Background: TORONTO: What exactly was he planning to do with 2,865 bicycles?

That is just one of many questions the police and others are puzzling over after the arrest last month of Igor Kenk, the proprietor of a used-bike shop here.
IHT story continues

Since Kenk's arrest in mid-July, Toronto Police have set up a warehouse to allow Torontonians who have had a bike stolen to come check if theirs is there. So far 484 have been identified and returned to their owners. There's two weeks left for owners to check for their bike (until Sept 7).

Anybody hoping to recover a bike must offer proof of ownership, such as receipts or store registrations, police said. A photo ID is also preferred. More on the story

So how many owners will have reclaimed their wheels by the deadline?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
484-540
16%
541-600
37%
601-660
20%
661-720
15%
721-800
7%
801 or more
4%
Settled as 541-600 on Mon 8th Sep 2008 4pm PST

Suspend date: Fri 5th Sep 2008 2pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 8th Sep 2008 4pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 5th Sep 2008 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 484-540: 15%, 541-600: 20%, 601-660: 25%, 661-720: 20%, 721-800: 15%, 801 or more: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 23rd Aug 2008 6:22pm PST by infernalmachine[Power User]
Suspended Fri 5th Sep 2008 2pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 8th Sep 2008 2:35pm PST by newswrangler[Power User]: Winning prediction = "541-600"

573 people find bikes in Kenk probe.

<http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/toronto/archive/2008/09/08/573-people-find-bikes-in-kenk-probe.aspx>

Suspend date: Fri 5th Sep 2008 2pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 8th Sep 2008 4pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 5th Sep 2008 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (42)

1 year ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted 541-600 (H$500 at 34%)
1 year ago
infernalmachine[Power User] predicted 541-600 (H$426 at 27%)
1 year ago
infernalmachine[Power User] predicted 601-660 (H$100 at 23%)
1 year ago
infernalmachine[Power User] predicted 484-540 (H$100 at 19%)
1 year ago
bigbear3rd predicted 601-660 (H$50 at 22%)

Comments (1)

Update: As of the morning of Sept 3, there are 537 bikes claimed, with less than a week to go.
http://www.thestar.com/News/GTA/article/489720
posted 1 year ago

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