nigeleccles
DEMOfall v TechCrunch50: Who Will Win?
TechCrunch50 has a slightly higher Daily Reach on the unsmoothed graph for September 9th.
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/techcrunch50.com?site0=techcrunch50.com&site1=demo.com&y=r&z=0&h=300&w=470&c=1&u[]=techcrunch50.com&u[]=demo.com&x=2008-09-16T09%3A08%3A55.000Z&check=www.alexa.com&signature=Bo5GJEIYDhimB%2BPMkFtSjpNKGs8%3D&range=7d&size=Medium
The unsmoothed Alexa graph is used because the settlement details state "the higher daily reach on September 9th", and the raw data from the unsmoothed version gives the best indication of this.
Background:
The deep rivalry between the two shows has broken out into trash talk a number of times which the New York Times has documented. However these shows are made or broken on the publicity they generate so who will come out top this year?
Using Alexa we compared techcrunch40.com (which what the TC event was called last year) with demo.com for last year and found that techcrunch40.com narrowly came out ahead. This year they are again neck and neck:
Everything is to play for. TechCrunch have been adding an illustrious panel of experts however DEMO have also been upping their game by bringing in ReadWriteWeb, Mashable, VentureBeat and GigaOm as media partners (full list here).
Settlement details:The winner will be settled as the site (demo.com or techcrunch50.com) that has the higher daily reach on September 9th. This is the last day of DEMOfall and the middle day of TechCrunch50. Note also that Alexa sometimes amends its numbers after publication therefore if the results are close we may wait several days before settlement.
| DEMOfall |
| |||
| TechCrunch50 |
|
- Activity: H$10,639 |
- Predictions: 42 |
Comments: 1
Suspend date: Wed 10th Sep 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 16th Sep 2008 1:09am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 10th Sep 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: DEMOfall: 30%, TechCrunch50: 70%
Action history:
tedwinder
: Is it time yet? (sorry for my impatience!) 
tomg![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: TechCrunch50 has a slightly higher Daily Reach on the unsmoothed graph for September 9th.
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/techcrunch50.com?site0=techcrunch50.com&site1=demo.com&y=r&z=0&h=300&w=470&c=1&u[]=techcrunch50.com&u[]=demo.com&x=2008-09-16T09%3A08%3A55.000Z&check=www.alexa.com&signature=Bo5GJEIYDhimB%2BPMkFtSjpNKGs8%3D&range=7d&size=Medium
The unsmoothed Alexa graph is used because the settlement details state "the higher daily reach on September 9th", and the raw data from the unsmoothed version gives the best indication of this.
Suspend date: Wed 10th Sep 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 16th Sep 2008 1:09am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 10th Sep 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (42)
infernalmachine![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted TechCrunch50 (H$100 at 53%)
charlie_dowden
monnggee
predicted TechCrunch50 (H$50 at 52%)
predicted TechCrunch50 (H$100 at 51%)Comments (1)
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