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What will be the highest strength of tropical cyclone Gustav?

Settled as Category 4 Hurricane

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/012051.shtml?
Market is being settled as of landfall because as of landfall there was a 99.9% probability that the storm would not strengthen to over a cat. 4

Background:

Just as Fay is falling apart, Gustav forms in the same place; it's just developing more quickly. What will be the highest strength it achieves?


Settlement details: As reported by the NHC at http://www.noaawatch.gov/2008/gustav.php

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Tropical Storm
0%
Category 1 Hurricane
0%
Category 2 Hurricane
0%
Category 3 Hurricane
1%
Category 4 Hurricane
98%
Category 5 Hurricane
1%
Activity: H$119,725
Settled as Category 4 Hurricane on Mon 1st Sep 3:03pm PDT

Suspend date: Tue 9th Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 3:03pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 7:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Tropical Storm: 7%, Category 1 Hurricane: 50%, Category 2 Hurricane: 25%, Category 3 Hurricane: 12%, Category 4 Hurricane: 5%, Category 5 Hurricane: 1%

Action history:

Created Mon 25th Aug 9:30pm PDT by pixelpaws
Settlement requested Mon 1st Sep 9:02am PDT by jake: Highest strength was a 4.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/2008/gustav.html
Suspended Mon 1st Sep 9:03am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Market suspended.

Predictions made after result was known ought be back-voided.
Settled as 'Category 4 Hurricane' Mon 1st Sep 3:03pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/012051.shtml?
Market is being settled as of landfall because as of landfall there was a 99.9% probability that the storm would not strengthen to over a cat. 4

Suspend date: Tue 9th Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 3:03pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 7:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (265)

265 predictions

11 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted Category 5 Hurricane (H$100 at 1%)
11 weeks ago
bobdevine predicted Category 4 Hurricane (H$9,999 at 99%)
11 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Category 5 Hurricane (H$100 at 2%)
11 weeks ago
timmy2000k predicted Category 5 Hurricane (H$100 at 3%)
11 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Category 5 Hurricane (H$100 at 2%)
more

Comments (3)

It's already a cat 1 over Cuba. 8/26 0131 mst.
posted 12 weeks ago
Projecting even further out, Accuweather.com said Gustav could grow into a Category 5 storm if it passes through the Yucatan Channel and enters the Gulf's warmer-than-usual waters. Hurricane Katrina struck three years ago this weekend as a Category 5 after shuttering most of the gulf's oil and natural gas production.
posted 12 weeks ago
  3 bayoubear[Admin]
Great question...glad you presented it....now, let me get some bottled water and check weather underground before making a wager........
posted 12 weeks ago

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