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When will all eight escaped New Mexico inmates be recaptured?

Settled as One or more are not recaptured as of 10/01

4 are still unaccounted for
http://www.lubbockonline.com/stories/092608/loc_337026101.shtml

Background:

8 inmates at the county jail in Clovis, New Mexico escaped Sunday night using handmade tools to cut holes enabling their escape. 3 of the 8 had been recaptured by Monday night, but the other 5 are still unaccounted, including convicted murderer Edward Salas and accused murderer Larry McClendon.

Will authorities recapture the remaining 5 and how long will it take? Question asks "When will the last inmate be recaptured?"

Options are through midnight Mountain for the last date mentioned (ex. option one expires at 11:59 on August 31)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Last one is recaptured by 8/31
1%
Last one is recaptured between 9/1-9/10
1%
Last one is recaptured between 9/11-9/20
1%
Last one is recaptured between 9/21-9/30
1%
One or more are not recaptured as of 10/01
96%
Activity: H$18,779
Settled as One or more are not recaptured as of 10/01 on Fri 3rd Oct 3:46pm PDT

Suspend date: Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 3rd Oct 3:46pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Last one is recaptured by 8/31: 15%, Last one is recaptured between 9/1-9/10: 30%, Last one is recaptured between 9/11-9/20: 25%, Last one is recaptured between 9/21-9/30 : 20%, One or more are not recaptured as of 10/01: 10%

Action history:

Created Tue 26th Aug 9:40am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]
Suspended Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'One or more are not recaptured as of 10/01' Fri 3rd Oct 3:46pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: 4 are still unaccounted for
http://www.lubbockonline.com/stories/092608/loc_337026101.shtml

Suspend date: Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 3rd Oct 3:46pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (35)

35 predictions

7 weeks ago
gtown predicted Last one is recaptured between 9/21-9/30 (H$1 at 1%)
7 weeks ago
spurt34 predicted One or more are not recaptured as of 10/01 (H$20 at 96%)
8 weeks ago
kida predicted One or more are not recaptured as of 10/01 (H$5,000 at 93%)
8 weeks ago
frostybeard predicted One or more are not recaptured as of 10/01 (H$20 at 89%)
10 weeks ago
curios predicted One or more are not recaptured as of 10/01 (H$100 at 74%)
more

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