kruijs![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
How will the head of the Europe's largest heroin traders clan be sentenced?
Due to the original posting of the market and the switch to now holding the older brother as the key figure in the market I have to void. There's a high probability that users bet on the market after the clarification and those predictions were made under false pretenses. A repost with who the market refers to in the set details would be good if possible.
Background:
Prosecutors say the father and his two sons used their base in the country to import 1.5 metric tons of heroin from Turkey for sale elsewhere.
The accused plead not guilty. The judgment opening is arranged on October 30. The market refers to the head of the conspiracy, the Father
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hUSEFCYb-d17NKoTXc9ZG8kdCWtA
http://www.worldradio.ch/wrs/news/rundown/swiss-news-at-a-glance-188.shtml?11366
http://www.drs.ch/www/de/drs/sendungen/echo-der-zeit/2644.bt10046770.html (German)
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Voided
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Exactly what the prosecutor asks: 20yrs |
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More than what the prosecutor asks ( > 20yrs) |
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Less than what the prosecutor asks ( < 20yrs) |
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Found guilty, but other sentence than jail |
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Found not guilty |
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Suspend date: Wed 29th Oct 4:59pm PDT
Initial likelihoods: Exactly what the prosecutor asks: 20yrs: 25%, More than what the prosecutor asks ( > 20yrs): 30%, Less than what the prosecutor asks ( < 20yrs): 30%, Found guilty, but other sentence than jail: 10%, Found not guilty: 5%
Action history:
kruijs 
newswrangler: Flagged by super user: Suspended pending review of options by a category editor. 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Market refers to Father as "Head" of clan. So his sentence will be the one the market settles on. ryanj: Market suspended due to discussion surrounding settlement. ryanj: Due to the original posting of the market and the switch to now holding the older brother as the key figure in the market I have to void. There's a high probability that users bet on the market after the clarification and those predictions were made under false pretenses. A repost with who the market refers to in the set details would be good if possible.
Suspend date: Wed 29th Oct 4:59pm PDT
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jhouseholderComments (7)
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So as to avoid confusion. Market refers to Father as "Head" of clan. So his sentence will be the one the market settles on.
Regards,
Ryan
PS Roger I'm so beating you to this!
MARKET UNSUSPENDED
"Head" may likely refer to the "clan" ... which was the "head" of ... "a massive network that became one of the main heroin suppliers for western Europe. This would be similar to the usage of the term, "family" in organized crime in the US, and other places.
" 'It [clan] has been one of the principle suppliers of heroin in western Europe since the middle of the 90s,' the prosecution statement added."
Additionally, to my read, the defendant facing the more serious charges is one of the two brothers -- not the "father".
"The main accused, a 42-year-old Kosovan, was arrested in Macedonia on August 2, 2003, and extradited to Switzerland.
"He is charged with participation in a criminal organisation, drug trafficking and money laundering.
"One of his brothers, aged 28, and his 69-year-old father, who before his arrest lived on social security in Kuenzelsau in Germany, have been charged with involvement in a criminal organisation." Accordingly, it would seem likely that, if found guilty, there may be different sentences for the different charges.
<http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=24&art_id=nw20080818131158654C618397>
.
I clarified not only based on my view of who was the head but based on Krujis's comment. "The only sentence of interest for this question is the one the father is going to get." Because he's the market creator I took his thinking of how the market would settle and based my ruling on that.
Ryan
Multiple mainstream media reports refer to the "brother" as the "main accused". There are no reports, that I have seen, that refer to the 69-year-old father (on social security) as the "head of the conspiracy".
In my view, you are substituting your interpretation/understanding for that of numerous published reports.
"(sda) Die Bundesanwaltschaft (BA) hat für den wegen Drogengrosshandels angeklagten 42-jährigen Kosovaren 20 Jahre Zuchthaus beantragt. Sie hält den Autohändler für den Chef eines international tätigen Familienclans. Für einen Bruder des Hauptangeklagten forderte die BA wegen Mittäterschaft eine Freiheitsstrafe von vier Jahren, für den Vater zwölf Monate bedingt."
Translation: "The Federal Prosecutor's Office (BA) requested 20 years penintentiary for the 42 year old Kosovarian accused for drug trade. It regards the car dealer as the boss of an internationally active family clan. For a brother of the principal defendant the BA demanded an imprisonment of four years because of accomplice shank, for his father twelve months on licence"
http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/kultur/aktuell/heroin_prozess_1.816339.html
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