Created Tue 26th Aug 9:35pm PDT by 
hippyboomer
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Who will be President of Pakistan at the end of 2008?
Current forecast: Asif Zadari (widower of former President Bhutto) (82% chance
12%)
12%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Asif Zadari (widower of former President Bhutto) with a probability of 82% (up 12% in last 1 day)
Former President Musharref has resigned and sitting lawmakers will elect a new President on Sept 6. The largest party has said it will nominate former President Bhutto's widower, Asif Zadari. However, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif pulled out of the governing coalition, throwing the government into disarray.
Zadari is at present heavily favoured to be President, but is widely regarded as being corrupt and is said to oppose re-appointing former supreme court judges because of this.
Because Sharif has withdrawn from the ruling coalition, new elections may have to be called.
Add to this, Pakistan's instability may lead to potential coups, popular uprisings, or assassination attempts.
Zadari is at present heavily favoured to be President, but is widely regarded as being corrupt and is said to oppose re-appointing former supreme court judges because of this.
Because Sharif has withdrawn from the ruling coalition, new elections may have to be called.
Add to this, Pakistan's instability may lead to potential coups, popular uprisings, or assassination attempts.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Asif Zadari (widower of former President Bhutto) |
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Nawaz Sharif (former Prime Minister, ex-coalition) |
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Iftikar Chaudry (former Chief Justice) |
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General Ashfaq Kayani (Army Chief of Staff) |
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Other / None |
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Activity: H$15,962
Question suspends in 5 weeks
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Asif Zadari (widower of former President Bhutto): 45%, Nawaz Sharif (former Prime Minister, ex-coalition): 20%, Iftikar Chaudry (former Chief Justice): 5%, General Ashfaq Kayani (Army Chief of Staff): 20%, Other / None: 10%
Action history:
Created Tue 26th Aug 9:35pm PDT by hippyboomer
hippyboomer
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
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Get widget!Predictions (48)
48 predictions
bgrigore
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predicted Asif Zadari (widower of former President Bhutto) (H$500 at 61%)Comments (7)
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score: 10
The News International 2 days ago
Chaudhry Zaheer could be appointed as the PAC chairman since Asif Ali Zardari had become the president of Pakistan. While the debate was heating up, Majida Zaidi of the PML-Q pointed out the quorum amidst strong criticism from treasury and indecent
score: 10
The Times 6 days ago
Welcome to Pakistan's Street of Dreams - your chance to buy into a future free of suicide bombers, power cuts, crumbling infrastructure and bad shopping. So goes the sales pitch for Canyon
score: 10
Trade Arabia 1 week ago
al Qaeda ally, has been bottled up by Pakistani forces since early this year. Frustrated by fighters from Pakistan fuelling the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan and fearful of al Qaeda regrouping, U.S. forces have intensified missile attacks by
score: 10
National Post 1 week ago
Pakistani lawyers campaigning for the restoration of a deposed chief justice vented their anger on Monday against President and warned of a storm of protest if their demands are ignored. Thousands of lawyers across the country held protests on Monday,
score: 10
Boston Globe 1 week ago
THE MOOD in Pakistan is cheerful - Barack Obama has just been elected president of the world's most powerful country. Although many Pakistanis have voiced misgivings about some of his comments on terrorism
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/57a89cd6-72a9-11dd-983b-0000779fd18c.html
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/programguide/stories/200808/s2346666.htm
"Fears About a Would-Be Leader’s Mental Health"
http://www.newsweek.com/id/156359
http://www.newsweek.com/id/155340?tid=relatedcl
Now, the question remains open to see if it is still him by the end of 08.
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