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How many nations will make their Winter Olympics debut in 2010?

Current forecast: two (68% chance12%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is two with a probability of 68% (up 12% in last 1 day)

Since 2006, the International Olympic Committee has granted Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Montenegro National Olympic Committee status. This move allows these nations to compete in the Olympic games. Other possibilities to receive NOC status between now and 2010 include Kosovo and other newly-independent nations.

As far as I can tell, Ethiopia, Madagascar and Albania made their first appearances in the 2006 Winter Olympics. I expect both Kosovo and Montenegro to participate in 2010.

*The IOC considers the National Olympic Committee now known as Serbia to be the same NOC that competed as Yugoslavia through 1988 and also in 1996 and 2000. The same NOC also competed as Serbia and Montenegro (SCG) in 2004. Medals won by Yugoslavia through 1988 may have been won by athletes from other Balkan states that now compete independently: Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro.

http://www.vancouver2010.com/en/WinterGames
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Winter_Olympics


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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zero
1%
one
20%
two
68%
three
10%
four or more
1%
Activity: H$2,000
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Fri 12th Feb 2010 8pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: zero: 1%, one: 20%, two: 68%, three: 10%, four or more: 1%

Action history:

Created Wed 27th Aug 3:09pm PDT by onedave[Power User]

Suspend date: Fri 12th Feb 2010 8pm PST (1 year to go)
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Predictions (1)

1 prediction

12 weeks ago
valornhonor[Power User] predicted three (H$1,000 at 17%)

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